From Mike Powell@454:1/105 to All on Friday, August 04, 2023 07:15:00
ACUS03 KWNS 040731
SWODY3
SPC AC 040730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday over portions of the Great
Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley.
...Lower Great Lakes/Midwest and western Ohio Valley...
A seasonably strong upper-level trough will continue to amplify as
it moves east across the region Sunday and Sunday night. In
response, a surface low will deepen as it moves east/northeast from
eastern IA into lower MI, and a cold front will move east across the
region. A warm front will extend east from the low across southern
lower MI.
Thunderstorm development/re-intensification is expected during the
day ahead of the cold front as large-scale ascent overspreads the
region. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, heating of a moist
boundary layer (dew points mid 60s-lower 70s) will result in
moderate/strong instability by afternoon. Effective shear will
support both supercell and multicell structures initially with a
risk for large hail and damaging gusts. A predominately linear
convective structure is likely with time as a response to frontal
forcing, with a continued/expanding risk for damaging gusts during
the evening. Some tornado potential may exist, primarily over
northern portions of the risk area closer to the deepening surface
low and in the vicinity of the warm front.