559
WTNT35 KNHC 271155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early
Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is
expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
and a hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into
Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba
tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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