327
WTNT45 KNHC 022032
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2023

Winds on Bermuda have been gradually decreasing since earlier this
morning, and weather stations on the island are no longer measuring
sustained tropical-storm-force winds (at standard elevation).
Gusts to tropical storm force will likely continue on Bermuda into
tonight while Idalia pulls away from the island, but the Bermuda
Weather Service has elected to discontinue the Tropical Storm
Warning in favor of local warnings. Therefore, this will be the
last NHC advisory on Idalia.

Earlier ASCAT showed that maximum winds remain 50 kt on the
northwestern side of the attached frontal boundary. Little change
in strength is expected during the next few days. The
extratropical cyclone is likely to occlude again in about 3 days
and begin to fill, at which point weakening is expected. The NHC
intensity forecast is between the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Idalia appears to have turned toward the east-northeast, or 075/6
kt. A shortwave trough is expected to move off the coast of New
England on Sunday, causing the cyclone to turn northeastward and
the northward and speed up over the next 2-3 days. Once it
occludes, it is expected to slow down and meander to the southeast
of Nova Scotia on days 4 and 5.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells from Idalia are forecast to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions along portions of the east coast of the
United States through Labor Day weekend.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force are likely to continue on Bermuda
through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 32.0N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 03/0600Z 32.5N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1800Z 34.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0600Z 36.0N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1800Z 38.2N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 05/0600Z 40.1N 57.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1800Z 41.3N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z 43.2N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z 45.1N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg


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