ACUS03 KWNS 050732
SWODY3
SPC AC 050731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND
ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts and
hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the Northeast,
Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. Additional storms with a
marginal severe threat may develop in parts of the Ark-La-Tex.

...Northeast/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front are forecast to
move eastward across the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place ahead of
the front with surface dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to lower
70s F. This will contribute to the development of moderate
instability in most areas ahead of the front by afternoon. As
surface heating takes place during the day, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will likely form ahead of the front across much of
this moist airmass. NAM forecast soundings around 21Z from central
New York southward to northern Virginia suggest that deep-layer
shear will remain relatively weak. However, MLCAPE is forecast to
peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much of the region. This,
combined with steep low-level lapse rates, could be enough for a
marginal wind-damage threat in areas that heat up the most.

...Ark-La-Tex...
A mid-level anticyclone will be in place across the Desert Southwest
on Thursday, as flow remains northwesterly across much of the
south-central U.S. Moisture return is forecast to take place across
the southern Plains during the day. By afternoon, a
southeast-to-northwest corridor of maximized low-level moisture is
forecast from Arkansas to southern Kansas. As surface temperatures
warm and low-level convergence increases along this corridor during
the mid to late afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. NAM forecast soundings suggest that MLCAPE will
peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range from Arkansas into southeast
Oklahoma, where 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 35 knot
range. This could be enough for marginal severe threat. Strong gusts
and hail would be the primary hazards.

..Broyles.. 09/05/2023

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 060731
SWODY3
SPC AC 060730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...ARK-LA-TEX...AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with a marginal severe threat, will be
possible on Friday across parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic,
Ark-La-Tex and Northern High Plains.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will remain across the eastern U.S. on Friday,
from the central Great Lakes southward into the Tennessee Valley. A
cold front will move southeastward into the central and northern
Appalachians. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly
in the 60s F, contributing to the development of moderate
instability along an axis from the Mid-Atlantic into New England.
Due to surface heating, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the afternoon from the higher terrain of the central
and northern Appalachians eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains.
Although 0-6 km shear is forecast to remain near or below 30 knots
in most areas, low-level lapse rates will become steep during the
mid to late afternoon. Multicells that develop in areas where
instability becomes locally maximized may have a marginal
wind-damage threat.

...Ark-La-Tex...
An anticyclone will remain over the Desert Southwest on Friday, with
flow being from the northwest across the Ark-La-Tex and lower
Mississippi Valley. To the northeast of the high, an upper-level
trough is forecast to move southeastward across the south-central
U.S. At low-levels, southeasterly flow in the Ark-La-Tex will aid
development of an axis of maximized low-level moisture extending
from northwestern Louisiana into southeast Oklahoma. Thunderstorms,
possibly elevated in nature, could develop late Friday afternoon,
supported by large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level
trough. NAM forecast soundings near Shreveport, Louisiana late
Friday afternoon have steep mid-level lapse rates and effective
shear around 40 knots. This could be enough for marginally severe
hail.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
northern High Plains on Friday, with west-southwesterly mid-level
flow located across much of the western U.S. At the surface, a cold
front is forecast to move southward into the northern High Plains.
Near the front, pockets of instability are forecast to develop in
response to surface heating. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
form across parts of the High Plains in the late afternoon,
supported by large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level
trough. NAM forecast soundings during the late afternoon in far
southeastern Montana have MLCAPE peaking in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg
range, with effective shear near 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse
rates around 8 C/km. This will likely be sufficient for marginally
severe hail.

..Broyles.. 09/06/2023

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 090731
SWODY3
SPC AC 090730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the central Plains. The potential for severe thunderstorms
to move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico along immediate portions of
the Florida Gulf Coast remains uncertain.

...Central Plains...
An upper trough should dig and further consolidate on Wednesday as
it advances from the Northwest/Great Basin towards the central
Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Pronounced large-scale ascent
preceding this feature will likely encourage a lee surface low to
deepen as it develops from eastern CO to western/central KS through
the period. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue
advecting northward across the central Plains through Wednesday
night along/east of a surface dryline. But, a cap and lingering
MLCIN should inhibit convective development across the warm sector
through much of the day. Still, robust convection will likely
initiate along/near a warm front from parts of central into eastern
KS/NE as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens Wednesday
evening. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain fairly
limited, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE amid increasing deep-layer
shear, as low/mid-level winds strengthen, should support some
convective organization. Isolated severe hail and perhaps some
strong wind gusts may occur with the more robust cores, before
convection becomes mainly elevated Wednesday night.

...Gulf Coast...
A mid-level perturbation should move quickly east-northeastward
across the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. There are still fairly
substantial differences in model guidance regarding the related
surface low placement and evolution through the period. This lends
considerable uncertainty with how far, if at all, rich low-level
moisture will be able to advance inland from parts of the central
Gulf Coast toward the FL Gulf Coast. While both low-level and
deep-layer shear appear favorable for organized thunderstorms, there
is currently too much uncertainty regarding the potential for
surface-based convection Wednesday evening/night to include low
severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 10/09/2023

$$
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