ACUS48 KWNS 050858
SWOD48
SPC AC 050856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move slowly eastward from the
middle Ohio Valley on Friday into the central Appalachians on
Sunday. To the east of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will
likely be in place from the eastern foothills of the Appalachians to
the Eastern Seaboard. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be
possible within this moist airmass each afternoon. The greatest
potential for strong storms appears to be in the central
Appalachians on Friday, and in the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday and Sunday. Although pockets of moderate instability may
develop across this moist airmass each afternoon, deep-layer shear
is expected to remain relatively weak. For this reason, the severe
threat is expected to be isolated and marginal in most areas.

Further west, a cold front is forecast to move southward into parts
of the Ark-La-Tex and southern Plains on Friday. Moderate
instability may develop to the south of the front Friday afternoon,
along an east-to-west corridor of maximized low-level moisture. The
axis of instability is forecast to remain similarly located through
the weekend, suggesting that strong thunderstorms could develop from
parts of Oklahoma into western Kansas. However, the favored zone of
instability will likely remain narrow, and large-scale ascent should
be weak. This should keep any severe threat localized.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
On Monday and Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
eastward from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. An
associated cold front is forecast to move southward across the
central and southern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along and near
this front. Although forecast instability and deep-layer shear may
be enough for strong thunderstorms, confidence is low concerning the
magnitude and spatial extent of any severe potential.

..Broyles.. 09/05/2023

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ACUS48 KWNS 060853
SWOD48
SPC AC 060852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to break
down over the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough weakens along
the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a relatively narrow corridor
of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to remain from Oklahoma
extending northwestward into parts of the central High Plains. A
cold front is forecast to move southward across the Great Plains by
early next week. Thunderstorm development will be possible each
afternoon and evening along and near the instability axis to the
south of the front, with additional storms possible on the front
itself. Although a large severe threat area appears unlikely, an
isolated severe potential could develop in areas that become
favorable at the mesoscale. The medium-range models suggest that the
greatest chance for a severe threat could be in the central High
Plains on Saturday and Sunday, and in the southern Plains on Monday.


...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
On Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. The
southern extent of the trough could be in the Ark-La-Tex. The
medium-range models suggest that a moist airmass will be in place
from central Texas eastward to the central Gulf Coast. A potential
for strong thunderstorms would be possible each afternoon near the
northern edge of this moist airmass, along a quasi-stationary front.
At this time, any severe potential is expected to be isolated and
marginal.

..Broyles.. 09/06/2023

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