Mesoscale Discussion 2166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma and north-central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 200127Z - 200300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Multiple ongoing supercells/supercell clusters in watch
686 will move east of the watch in the next 1 to 2 hours. A
downstream watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells have produced hail (some 2+ inch)
within watch 686. Some of these storms have congealed into supercell
clusters with a few discrete storms remaining. These storms are
expected to move east of watch 686 within the next 1 to 2 hours. The
OUN/DFW 00Z RAOB shows a very favorable environment with 1500 to
2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 40 to 50 knots. Cooling
surface temperatures has led to some increasing inhibition, however,
the 00Z OUN RAOB still shows around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE.
Therefore, given mature supercells and ongoing strong mesocyclones,
expect them to persist into the late evening and potentially the
early overnight hours. A watch may be needed downstream to cover
this threat.