ABNT20 KNHC 091136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic:
A non-tropical low is expected to form in a couple of days a few
hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This system could
gradually acquire subtropical characteristics toward the end of the
week while it drifts southeastward over the central Atlantic. The
low is expected to turn northward next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 111707
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
some development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical
depression could form during the next few days while the system
moves generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn
northward bringing the system over cooler waters, likely limiting
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 121133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 500 miles east-northeast
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well to the south of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form during the next few days while the system moves
generally eastward. By the weekend, the low should turn northward
bringing the system over cooler waters, potentially limiting
additional development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts, issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 131732
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of Bermuda is
producing gale-force winds and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. However, recent satellite imagery indicates that the
system does not have a well-defined low-level center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for this system to
become a subtropical storm during the next day or so, as it meanders
over the central Atlantic. By the weekend, the low should turn
northward bringing the system over cooler waters, potentially
limiting additional development. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts, issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 221123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles continues to show signs of organization. Although
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some
additional gradual development is anticipated and this system will
likely become a tropical depression by early next week while it
moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

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ABNT20 KNHC 231234 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Corrected to show Tropical Storm Don under Active Systems

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Don, located over the central Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Shower activity continues to be limited in association with a small
area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Although environmental conditions are only forecast to be
marginally conducive for some gradual development, this system
could still become a tropical depression during the next few days
while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Unfavorable upper-level winds are forecast when the
system moves into the central Caribbean around midweek, decreasing
the chances of formation. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 241730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Don, located over the north-central Atlantic.

East of the Windward Islands (AL95):
A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands. Although this system has not become any better organized
since yesterday, some slow development remains possible during the
next couple of days while it moves westward near 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development of this system by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Western Atlantic:
A weak trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south
of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are expected to become
marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system as
it moves towards the southeastern U.S. coast later this week and
into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 251759
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL95):
A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with some
locally heavy rains over portions of the adjacent land areas.
Development of this system is not expected while it continues to
move rapidly westward over the Caribbean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Bermuda. Significant development of this
system appears unlikely while it moves move west-northwestward
toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible later this week and into the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 261735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week and
into the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 271736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located several hundred miles to the southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
gradual development of this system in a few days, and a tropical
depression could form late this weekend or early next week while
the system moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 281144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles has increased since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are expected to be favorable for additional gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far western Atlantic
near the coasts of Georgia and northeastern Florida are associated
with a weak area of low pressure that has formed just east of
Jacksonville. This system is moving north-northwestward and is
forecast to move inland over northeastern Florida and eastern
Georgia today, and additional development is not expected.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
northeastern Florida, eastern Georgia, and portions of eastern South
Carolina during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave and
broad area of low pressure. This system is forecast to move
westward over Central America later today or tonight, and
significant development is not anticipated. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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ABNT20 KNHC 281728
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable
for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
Satellite, surface, and radar data show that a weak area of low
pressure has moved just inland near the Florida/Georgia border.
This system is forecast to move north-northwestward over inland
portions of eastern Georgia through tonight, and no additional
development is expected. The disturbance could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of northeastern Florida, eastern Georgia, and
eastern South Carolina during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are
associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure
located near the eastern coast of Central America. This system is
forecast to move westward over Central America later today or
tonight, and significant development is not anticipated. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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ABNT20 KNHC 291140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized cloudiness and showers located about 1100 miles east of
the Leeward Islands are associated with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early part of next week.
The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and then
turn north-northwestward to northward over the central subtropical
Atlantic Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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ABNT20 KNHC 301140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located a little less than 1000 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual development of this
system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the early part of this week. The system is expected
to move northwestward at about 15 mph during the next day or so, and
then turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by late
Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Carolina Coast:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a
trough of low pressure that recently emerged off the Carolina
coastline, and is currently located about 100 miles south of
Wilmington, North Carolina. Environmental conditions appear
generally favorable for some additional development over the next
day or two as the system gradually accelerates east-northeastward
into the northwestern Atlantic ocean. Afterwards, this system is
likely to merge with a frontal boundary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

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ABNT20 KNHC 311152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 700 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands. However, the system does not currently
have a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be sufficiently favorable for development over the
next few days, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form
during the next day or so. The system is expected to move
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph today, and then turn northward over
the central subtropical Atlantic by late tonight or Tuesday.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in association
with an area of low pressure located offshore of the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system appears to be acquiring
non-tropical characteristics as it begins to merge with a frontal
boundary, and its chances of becoming a tropical cyclone appear to
be decreasing. Regardless, the low is expected to begin producing
gale-force winds today while it moves quickly toward the
east-northeast at about 30 mph, and additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
For more information about marine hazards associated with AL96
and AL97, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 011153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
low pressure area located about 750 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions still could support
tropical cyclone formation during the next two to three days while
the system moves northwestward and then northward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Atlantic (AL97):
Satellite imagery shows that the gale-force non-tropical low
pressure system located over the western Atlantic several hundred
miles south of Cape Race Newfoundland has merged with a frontal
system. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated.
Additional information on the low, including gale warnings, can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
For more information about marine hazards associated with AL97,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 021144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
low pressure area located about 475 miles southeast of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to move
northward and merge with a frontal system over the north-central
Atlantic in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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ABNT20 KNHC 141154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Wednesday or early Thursday. Some slow development of this system
will be possible late this week while the system moves gradually west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of low pressure could develop by the middle to latter
portion of this week over the central tropical Atlantic. Some slow
development of this system is also possible while it moves
west-northwestward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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ABNT20 KNHC 151137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves westward to west-northward at about 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
tonight or early Wednesday. Some slow development of this system is
possible late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 161141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central
tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low
pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next several days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with
an area of low pressure expected to form in a day or so near or
just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Further development of
the low is possible, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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ABNT20 KNHC 171156
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated trough of low pressure centered over 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next several days while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure, partially associated with a tropical
wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms near and to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Further development of this low is possible while it moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at around 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable for
development early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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ABNT20 KNHC 181142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or
northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By
early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to
increase, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An elongated trough of low pressure located roughly halfway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive for further development of this system,
but a tropical depression could still form during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
central tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located just north of Hispaniola is
forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a
broad area of low pressure could form. Some slow development of this
system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Hagen

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ABNT20 KNHC 191149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for further development of this system, and a short-lived
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds
over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development of this system during the next day or two while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles (AL90):
A tropical wave located just east of the Windward Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form during the early and middle parts of next week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the
Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and
central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early
next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form.
Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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ABNT20 KNHC 201804 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook... Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Corrected Emily's location relative to the Cabo Verde Islands

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands and on newly formed Tropical Storm Emily, located
about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. In addition, visible satellite imagery shows evidence that a
well-defined center is developing, and earlier satellite wind data
indicated the system was producing winds of 35-40 mph. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form as soon
as later this afternoon. A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance mission is
currently en route to investigate the system this afternoon. The
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph over the eastern and central Caribbean, before turning
northward and potentially affecting the Dominican Republic and Haiti
on Tuesday or Wednesday, where tropical storm watches could become
necessary later this afternoon. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles during the
next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this afternoon in
association with an area of disturbed weather located in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Additional development of this system is possible as
it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a tropical depression
could form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave
centered just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form later this week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi/Hogsett

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ABNT20 KNHC 211124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, on Tropical
Storm Gert, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Emily, located a
little over 1100 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf
of Mexico coastline on Tuesday. Interests in southern Texas and
northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as
tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms over the Cabo Verde Islands and portions
of the tropical eastern Atlantic are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while it moves west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Emily are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin are issued under WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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ABNT20 KNHC 221106
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located over the east-central Caribbean Sea, on
Tropical Depression Gert, located a few hundred miles east-southeast
of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Harold,
located just offshore of south Texas.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week or over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern and central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
The remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily are located over the
central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands. Although development is unlikely in the next
day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions, some
development is possible late this week or this weekend when the
system moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Harold are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Harold are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

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ABNT20 KNHC 221747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located over the east-central Caribbean Sea, on
Tropical Storm Harold, located inland over south Texas, and has
issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert, located a
few hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions now appear only marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, but a tropical depression could
still form later this week or over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern and central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
The remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily are located over the
central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east-northeast of
the Leeward Islands. Although development is unlikely in the next
day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions, some
development is possible by Friday or Saturday when the system moves
northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. The system should
move north of the Gulf Stream on Sunday where further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/R. Zelinsky

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ABNT20 KNHC 231146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located near the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Harold, located inland over northern Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL07):
An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles east-
northeast of the Leeward Islands (the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Emily) continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become more conducive for development in a day or so, and this
system is likely to regenerate into a tropical depression or
tropical storm late this week or this weekend when the system moves
northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. For additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable
for some slow development through early next week while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Information on Tropical Depression Harold can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center, under AWIPS
header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

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ABNT20 KNHC 241146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located to the east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
An area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-southeast
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) continues
to produce a large but elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are generally conducive for
development today, and this system is likely to regenerate into a
tropical storm over the next couple of days as the system moves
northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend,
the system is anticipated to merge with a frontal boundary north of
the Gulf Stream. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Despite marginal environmental conditions, slow
development is possible and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure, originating along the East Pacific
coast of Central America, is forecast to move into northwestern
Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical
depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

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ABNT20 KNHC 251137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of
the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba,
and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily):
A trough of low pressure located roughly 1000 miles east-northeast
of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily) is
producing an elongated area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are becoming less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected
to merge with a frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in
the next day or so. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions
could become more conducive for development this weekend, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 261158
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Franklin, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
near the Yucatan Channel. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next day or two while it moves generally
northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for development over the
next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while the system moves generally northwestward over the central
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
early next week. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the latter part of next week while the system moves westward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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ABNT20 KNHC 271137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Franklin, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda,
and on Tropical Depression Ten, located near the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to diminish near a
trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. Development of this system is no longer expected, as it
moves slowly northwestward to north-northwestward over the central
subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Some slow development of this system is possible
later this week while the system moves westward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 281140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Franklin, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on
Tropical Storm Idalia, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

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ABNT20 KNHC 291154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Franklin, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda,
and on recently upgraded Hurricane Idalia, located over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some additional development of this system, and a
short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or
two while the system drifts generally northward over the central
subtropical Atlantic. By Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for further development of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later in the week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 301150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles west-northwest of
Bermuda, on Hurricane Idalia, near the coast of the Florida Big
Bend, and on Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred
miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located
near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week while the system
initially moves west-northwestward and then turns northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
(the remnants of Gert) are located several hundred miles to the
north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions do
not appear to be that favorable for additional development over the
next couple of days as the system drifts slowly northward or north- northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable
for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$

Forecaster Kelly/Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 311143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Franklin, located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of
Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Idalia, located near the coast of North
Carolina, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Jose, located
several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located just west of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
A weak but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred
miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system has a short
window for further development during the next day or so while it
drifts northeastward or eastward before upper-level winds become
increasingly unfavorable by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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ABNT20 KNHC 011739
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Franklin, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of Bermuda, on Tropical Storm Jose, located several
hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression
Gert, located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and
on newly formed Tropical Depression Twelve, located a few hundred
miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
during the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form
while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and
central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Gert are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Gert are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 021137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 2 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is currently issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, located just to the south-southeast of
of Bermuda, Tropical Storm Gert, located about 700 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm
Katia, located about 600 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Katia are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Katia are
issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Berg

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 031150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gert, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and
Tropical Storm Katia, located over the eastern subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of shower and thunderstorm
activity. This system has become better organized since yesterday,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development this week. A tropical depression is likely to form
around midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore in
a few days. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development starting midweek while the wave moves to the west-
northwestward at about 15 mph over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 041151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gert, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Depression Katia, located over the eastern subtropical
Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is
expected to become a tropical depression around midweek. Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and
western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move off the
African coast in a couple of days. Environmental conditions should
support some slow development, and a tropical depression could form
over the far eastern tropical Atlantic around the latter part of
the week while the wave moves to the west-northwest at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 050543
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little
better organized over the past several hours. Environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day
or so while the low moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional strengthening,
possibly to a hurricane, is likely later this week while the system
moves over western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. For additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A strong tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of West
Africa today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the middle
to latter part of the week while the system moves to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This system is expected to move
across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and
interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles
north of the Azores, and is forecast to move quickly southeastward
towards warmer waters east of the Azores. This system could acquire
some subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week or this
weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and Portugal.
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2

$$
Forecaster Pasch

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 060506
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lee, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form later this week or this
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to move
across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin, located a few hundred miles
east-northeast of the Azores, is producing disorganized shower
activity mostly to the east of its center. This system could briefly
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next
day or two while it moves northeastward or northward over the
northeastern Atlantic. By late this week, further development is not
expected as the system is forecast to move into unfavorable
environmental conditions, which should cause it to weaken.
For additional information, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Lee are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Lee are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and online at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 112344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lee, located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward
Islands, and on recently upgraded Hurricane Margot, located over the
central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity primarily to the west
of its center. Development of this system is unlikely before it
merges with a another area of low pressure (AL98) to its east during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure has formed along a tropical wave
located over the eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. This system is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms but environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, especially after is merges with
an area of low pressure to its west (AL97). A tropical depression is
likely to form from the combined system by this weekend as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

= = = = = = =
---
* SLMR 2.1a * "Mmmmmmmm.....chocolate."
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 122344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lee, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda, and
on Hurricane Margot, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97 and AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to consolidate, with a low on the western side
becoming dominant over the next day or two. Gradual development of
the low is expected after that, and a tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

= = = = = = =
---
* SLMR 2.1a * How can I escape this irresistable grasp?
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 132344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lee, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda, and
on Hurricane Margot, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continue to become better organized this evening.
Environmental conditions are favorable for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend as the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

= = = = = = =
---
* SLMR 2.1a * The number you have dailed...9-1-1...has been changed.
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 162317
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Lee, located over the Bay of Fundy, on Tropical Storm
Margot, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Depression Fifteen, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
midweek. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves
westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

= = = = = = =
---
* SLMR 2.1a * Arnold Layne, don't do it again!
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 192310
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Wednesday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of the wave thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form east of the
Florida peninsula late this week. This system could acquire some
subtropical characteristics this weekend while it moves generally
northward. Regardless of development, this low is likely to bring
gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic United States late this week and into this weekend.
Please see products from your local National Weather Service office
for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

= = = = = = =
---
* SLMR 2.1a * Southern Serves the South
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 202332
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located a couple of hundred miles
south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected
to merge with another disturbance located a few hundred miles to its
west in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the Florida peninsula within the next day or two. This system
could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday while it
moves generally northward. Regardless of development, this low is
likely to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf
to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States late
this week and into this weekend. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your
local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci

= = = = = = =
---
* SLMR 2.1a * Pass the tequila, Manuel...
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 251128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized shower activity
over portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Development, if
any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur over the next
day or two while it moves slowly westward. The disturbance is
expected to move into unfavorable environmental conditions by the
middle of the week, ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next few days as the system moves
west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 271111
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located about 650 miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form
in the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 281143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway
between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, as long as this system remains far enough removed from
Tropical Storm Philippe to its west. A tropical depression or storm
is expected to form later today or on Friday while the system moves northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 061129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast
of Africa later today and tonight. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of the
system, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle
part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 071132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A low-latitude tropical wave located near the west coast of
Africa continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Berg

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 081130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek while it
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 091135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system during the next several days.
A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it
moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a small area of
low pressure over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 100
miles north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear marginally favorable for some additional development while
the system moves slowly northward before the low merges with a
frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 101136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased some, but remain
disorganized, in association with an area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable, surface pressures have been falling near
the system, and it has a short window to develop further over
the next day or so. However, by Wednesday morning the system is
forecast to merge with a developing frontal system over the western
Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.

Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast
to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf
Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office, and high
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

= = = = = = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ABNT20 KNHC 111140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Sean, located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south-southeast
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity is showing some signs of organization
this morning, and environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development of this system over the next several days
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Sean are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Sean are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

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ABNT20 KNHC 121130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce some
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
could support some slow development of this system over the next
several days while it moves generally westward across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

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ABNT20 KNHC 131121
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only gradual development of
this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by the end of the weekend while the disturbance begins
to move westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional
development is expected after that, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early to middle portion of next week as
the system moves steadily westward across the central and western
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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ABNT20 KNHC 141141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become more concentrated, and better organized during the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next couple of days while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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ABNT20 KNHC 151134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Sean, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. While this system has become less
organized since yesterday, the overall environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is still likely to form within the
next few days while the system moves westward or west-northwestward
across the central and western tropical Atlantic. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 161148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic about midway between the Windward Islands and western
Africa is producing disorganized shower activity. The low-level
circulation has become better defined since yesterday and, since
environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
further development, a tropical depression is still likely to form
within a few days. This system is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward across the central and western tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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ABNT20 KNHC 181140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands
continue to show signs of organization, however it is not yet clear
if the system has a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
across the western tropical Atlantic toward the Lesser Antilles.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system, and watches may be required for some of the islands later
today. Additional information, including storm warnings, can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Regardless of development, this system has the potential to bring
gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding to portions of the Lesser
Antilles beginning Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

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ABNT20 KNHC 201118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tammy, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
the Leeward Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system
will be possible before it moves inland over Central America by the
early to middle portion of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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