ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA...FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will be centered over
Nebraska, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. Other
severe storms will be possible over northern and eastern Texas, from
eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, and from northern Illinois
to Lake Erie.

...Synopsis...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist from the northern Rockies
across the northern Plains, between an upper high over AZ/NM and an
upper low over Hudson Bay. Weak upper ridging will occur over the
northern Plains during day, but this will flatten as a weak wave
moves east/southeastward out of MT.

At the surface, high pressure will begin the day over the northern
Plains and upper MS Valley, with a stalled front roughly along I-80
in NE and IA. Substantial moisture will exist south of the boundary,
with mid 60s dewpoints as far into northwest NE by late afternoon.
Southerly winds above the surface will aid elevated moisture
transport, with substantial elevated instability as far north as
central SD.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Scattered storms are likely by late afternoon from eastern MT into
the western Dakotas as the influence of the midlevel wave is felt,
with heating and convergence near a surface trough. A few cells may
produce hail or gusty winds there.

To the south, storms are likely to form over west-central/northern
NE in proximity to the strong instability. Very large damaging hail
will be likely. Model solutions vary as to how widespread storms
will be, and whether an MCS may form. If that occurs, then the
severe risk would spread eastward across NE, western IA, and parts
of northern KS and MO. Elongated hodographs with veering winds with
height will favor southeastward-moving supercells.

...Northern and eastern TX to the central Gulf Coast...
Models indicate an MCS could be ongoing over parts of OK Tuesday
morning, and any outflow with this system would continue
south/southeast. Strong instability will develop over TX and LA due
to the very moist air mass and steepening low-level lapse rates,
with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Brief hail or locally damaging gusts may
occur with redevelopment related to this regime, and portions of
this region could reach Slight Risk levels in later outlooks as
predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 07/10/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 111732
SWODY2
SPC AC 111730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of Missouri,
Illinois, and adjacent portions of the central Plains and Midwest on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats,
with some potential for significant (75+ mph) severe winds across
parts of Missouri and vicinity.

...Synopsis...
A closed upper low will remain centered over Hudson Bay and vicinity
on Wednesday, while upper ridging persists over the Southwest.
Between these two features, a belt of enhanced mid-level
west-northwesterly flow will be present over much of the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest and mid/upper MS Valley.

...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
Although details remain uncertain, one or more thunderstorm clusters
will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning
across parts of IA into northern MO. An isolated threat for mainly
damaging winds may continue through the morning as this activity
spreads eastward across the Midwest. But, most guidance shows a
general weakening trend with the morning MCS as it generally
outpaces available instability with eastward extent.

In the wake of this morning convection, strong daytime heating will
encourage the development of moderate to strong instability along a convectively reinforced boundary that should extend across KS into
MO and perhaps parts of IL. Robust convection will likely form along
and south of this boundary Wednesday afternoon/evening as a
shortwave trough and associated mid/upper-level jet moves eastward
from the northern/central Plains over the Upper Midwest and
mid/upper MS Valley. With deep-layer shear forecast to strengthen
through the day with the approach of the mid/upper-level jet,
initial development may be supercellular and pose a threat for large
to very large hail in addition to damaging downdraft winds. This
appears most probable across parts of eastern KS into
western/central MO.

With time, clustering/upscale growth and perhaps an intense MCS will
probably occur across parts of MO and vicinity Wednesday evening as
a southwesterly low-level jet modestly strengthens. Where this
MCS/cluster will develop and move remains rather uncertain. But,
strong buoyancy and steepened low/mid-level lapse rates should
support a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps
isolated gusts of 75+ mph. Confidence in a more concentrated
corridor of damaging winds remains too uncertain to include greater
severe wind probabilities at this time.

...Great Lakes/Northeast...
The glancing influence of a shortwave trough moving northeastward
across Quebec and the Northeast should encourage at least isolated
thunderstorm development along a weak cold front from parts of the
Great Lakes region into New England. Weak to locally moderate
instability and modest deep-layer shear should support some threat
for damaging winds with the strongest cells and small clusters that
develop Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

..Gleason.. 07/11/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 120554
SWODY2
SPC AC 120553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong gusty winds will be
possible on Thursday from parts of the southern and central Plains
into the mid Mississippi Valley and Northeast. A few storms with
hail and strong wind gusts could also occur in parts of the mid
Missouri Valley.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward through the Great
Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move
into the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Surface dewpoints ahead
of the front will be mostly in the 60s F, which could yield moderate instability in areas that heat up the most. Thunderstorm development
is expected to take place along and near the front during the
afternoon. The greatest potential for convective development is
forecast across Ohio, where several models suggest that MCS
development will be possible. NAM forecast soundings in central and
eastern Ohio at 00Z/Friday have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This environment would support
supercells. If supercells can develop during the late afternoon,
large hail and wind damage would be possible. Otherwise, a marginal
severe threat is expected to develop across much of the lower Ohio
Valley and in the lower Great Lakes region. Damaging wind gusts and
hail are expected to be the primary threats.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Thursday
across much of the central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southward through the central Plains. Pockets of
moderate instability will likely develop to the south of the front,
potentially from the Texas Panhandle eastward into the Ozarks. A
narrow north-to-south corridor of moderate instability may also
develop in parts of the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to form within this airmass as surface temperatures
warm in the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across
much of this airmass, which will likely support a severe threat in
areas where instability and shear become locally maximized.
Convective mode is expected to be mostly multicellular and an
isolated threat for wind damage and hail will be possible. However,
the greatest severe threat will be dependent upon mesoscale factors
which have low predictability at this time.

...Mid Missouri Valley...
West-northwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
north-central states on Thursday. A surface high is forecast to move southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. In the wake of this
surface high, a pocket of maximized low-level moisture is forecast
across western Iowa where surface dewpoints could reach the mid 60s
F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a small pocket of
moderate instability will be possible across the mid Missouri
Valley. Thunderstorms that develop within this pocket of instability
will likely have access to moderate deep-layer shear, owing to
directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear in the
mid-levels. This environment could support a marginal severe threat,
with strong wind gusts and hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 07/12/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 121732
SWODY2
SPC AC 121730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds,
large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two appear possible Thursday
across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, and portions of
the southern/central Plains. Isolated very large hail may occur
across parts of the central Plains.

...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
A large, closed upper low will persist over the Hudson Bay vicinity
on Thursday. Multiple embedded mid-level perturbations, some
convectively augmented, should rotate through the base of the upper
trough/low across parts of the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast through the period. A surface low should track from the
Lower Great Lakes into southern Quebec by Thursday afternoon, with a
weak trailing cold front extending southwestward from the low across
western NY into the OH Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected to develop with daytime heating along/ahead of the
front. Moderate buoyancy coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear
should foster a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of
producing both large hail and damaging winds as they spread eastward
through Thursday evening. A 25-35 kt south-southwesterly low-level
jet should generate enough low-level shear to support some threat
for a tornado or two with any supercell that can be sustained. Based
on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Slight Risk to include
more of the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Within a modest low-level upslope flow regime, robust thunderstorms
will likely develop by Thursday afternoon along/east of a surface
lee trough/stalled front across parts of the southern/central High
Plains. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop to the
east of this surface boundary from parts of southwestern SD into western/central NE, eastern CO, and western KS. Enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly winds, weaker with southward extent into the
southern High Plains, should foster 35-50+ kt of deep-layer shear.
Although large-scale ascent should remain weak, multiple supercells
should develop across this area and spread generally southeastward
through Thursday evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates, strong
buoyancy, and long/generally straight hodographs at mid/upper levels
will support a threat for large to very large hail with any
supercell that develops. Some clustering may eventually occur with a
greater threat for severe/damaging winds as a low-level jet modestly strengthens. But, details in convective evolution and possible
upscale growth into an MCS Thursday evening/night across the
southern/central Plains still remain quite uncertain.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Initially high-based convection may develop Thursday afternoon
across parts of the northern Plains. With a well-mixed boundary
layer and steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected, isolated strong
to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with this activity.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may form and spread
southeastward across parts of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest
through the day in a persistent northwesterly flow regime aloft.
Deep-layer shear across these regions generally appears strong
enough for supercells. However, nebulous forcing lends low
confidence in pinpointing where a greater concentration of
supercells and/or small bowing clusters capable of producing
isolated severe hail/wind gusts may develop Thursday
afternoon/evening. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk across
parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest to encompass a wide
range of possible convective solutions shown by various guidance.

..Gleason.. 07/12/2023

$$
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* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing damaging wind and sporadic hail are forecast
over much of the central Plains on Friday. Isolated damaging gusts
or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid
Atlantic and southern New England, and into parts of the southern
High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A large upper low will remain over Canada, with an upper ridge over
the Southwest. In between, moderate northwest flow aloft will
persist over the Plains. To the east, various weaker embedded waves
will affect parts of the OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Great Lakes.
Moisture will remain plentiful east of the Rockies, with the only
exception the northern Plains and upper MS Valley where drier air
will spread in from the northwest.

...Much of the central Plains...
Storms are forecast to be ongoing over NE Friday morning near a
stationary front and where low-level theta-e will be substantial.
Some of these storms could have hail relatively early in the day,
with an increasing threat throughout the day as the storms and the
boundary push south into KS where heating will occur. Large hail is
most likely with the initial activity, with a strong model signal of
an MCS eventually pushing south/southeast into OK and southwest MO
late. Damaging winds, as well as heavy rain, will become the primary
concern.

..NC into southern New England...
A deep-layer moist plume will remain in place with 850 mb winds out
of the south/southwest, and a weak surface trough from the Carolinas
into southern New England. Little heating will be needed to uncap
the air mass, with storms focused over NC and VA during the day
where lapse rates will be steepest. Another area of focus will be
over southern New England where southerly winds will bring 70s F
dewpoints northward across MA. Shear will not be very strong but
veering winds with height may favor a few cells producing marginal
hail.

...Upper Great Lakes/MI area...
Moistening will occur over Lower MI during the day as with a
west/southwest low-level wind regime, beneath cool midlevel
temperatures and 500 mb winds over 40 kt. Strong heating will occur,
which when combined with the rising dewpoints out of the southwest
will yield plentiful instability. Scattered storms are expected to
form over interior Lower MI during the late afternoon by virtue of
weak convergence and an uncapped air mass, and lengthy straight
hodographs will favor cellular storm mode with hail possible.

..Jewell.. 07/13/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 160558
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A threat for isolated large hail will be possible from Monday
evening into the overnight period from south-central South Dakota
southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley. A marginal severe threat
is also expected in the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon.

...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
north-central U.S. on Monday as an upper-level ridge moves eastward
into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the ridge, a lee trough will
develop across northeast Wyoming and east-central Montana. Ahead of
this feature, moisture advection will take place across the northern
Plains. The airmass will remain capped throughout the day as warm
air aloft advects northeastward into the region. By early evening,
an instability axis is forecast to setup from southwestern South
Dakota southeastward into east-central Kansas. Isolated to scattered
storms should initiate during the mid to late evening along the
eastern edge of the stronger instability as the low-level jet
gradually strengthens. The greatest concentration of storms is
expected near the northern edge of the low-level jet, moving
southeastward across southern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska
during the early overnight period.

NAM forecast soundings at 06Z from Pierre, South Dakota
southeastward to Norfolk, Nebraska have MUCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with
strong effective shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This, combined
with steep mid-level lapse rates should be favorable for isolated
large hail with supercells that remain elevated. The wind-damage
threat is expected to remain marginal, and confined to areas near
the stronger surface-based instability from southwestern South
Dakota southeastward into northeast Kansas. The severe threat should
gradually increase during the late evening, persisting through much
of the overnight period.

...Ohio Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Lakes and
lower Ohio Valley on Monday. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move southeastward toward the lower Ohio Valley during
the day. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast mostly
in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, an east-to-west axis of
instability is expected to set up from southern Illinois into
northeastern Kentucky. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form
during the early to mid afternoon along this axis of instability.
Although low-level winds are forecast to remain veered, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. This could be favorable for multicell
line segments with isolated wind-damage potential, mainly as
low-level lapse rates become steep in the afternoon.

...Montana...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the northwestern
U.S. on Monday, as an upper-level ridge exits the region to the
east. Ahead of the trough, an axis of instability is expected to
develop in central and northern Montana, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms forming along and near the instability axis. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, NAM forecast soundings
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates will approach 7.5 C/km. This environment would be
sufficient for a marginal hail threat. A potential for gusty winds
will also be possible. Any severe threat would be concentrated near
peak heating as instability maximizes across the region.

..Broyles.. 07/16/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER-MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be possible Tuesday evening into the overnight across parts of
the mid Mississippi/Lower-Missouri Valley. Other strong to severe
storms will also be possible in various parts of the CONUS from the
Great Basin and the Plains to the Midwest and East Coast.

...Synopsis...
The upper level pattern on Tuesday will feature a flat ridge across
the western CONUS with a mid-level shortwave trough crossing
Montana, another mid-level shortwave trough across the Corn Belt and
a broader trough across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. The
surface pattern will more nebulous with a diffuse surface front
extending from the Northeast across the southern Great Lakes and
into the Plains. Across the Plains, it will be a more defined warm
front with a surface low across Kansas. This front will extend north
from that surface low into the northern Plains.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid-Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley
and Vicinity...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
in one or more locations along a zone of mid-level frontogenesis
extending from southeast South Dakota to northern Arkansas. Mid
level height falls and the associated low-level jet response are
expected to overspread the frontal zone between 06 and 12Z, but
forecast soundings along this zone show varying low-level moisture
which likely explains the variance in convective coverage along this
zone from 12Z CAM guidance. This morning convection will have a
significant impact on the forecast in the region. More widespread
morning convection and development of a cold pool could support a
severe weather threat tomorrow morning and continuing through the
afternoon. However, if this does not occur, the warm sector would
likely remain mostly capped during the day.

Regardless of the evolution of morning convection, the signal
remains strong for elevated convection along the Mississippi River
near St. Louis during the overnight period as a 40-50 knot low-level
jet develops across eastern Missouri amid 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE and
45-50 knots of mid-level flow. This will support the potential for
elevated supercells along this zone starting between 04Z and 07Z
late Tuesday night. Eventually these storms may grow into a forward
propagating MCS with a severe wind threat into portions of western Kentucky/northern Tennessee early Wednesday morning.

...Northern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains on Tuesday
afternoon as cyclonic vorticity advection overspreads the region
near peak heating. MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg amid 35 to 40
knots of effective shear should support supercells developing along
the frontal zone. Boundary normal flow should keep convection
discrete and perhaps somewhat isolated. If more widespread storm
coverage is anticipated, a slight risk may be needed for this region
in later outlooks.

...Central High Plains...
A few thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon as low-level
flow veers from northeasterly to easterly and becomes more upslope
with low-level moisture advection on the northern periphery of the
surface cyclone. The favorable period may be relatively short lived
since moisture arrives late, but a favorable environment may develop
with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and a supercell wind profile.

...Eastern Carolinas to the Northeast...
A broad region of weak ascent is expected from the Appalachians
eastward as a mid-level trough translates eastward. Ahead of this
trough, pockets of strong instability are expected to develop with
the greatest instability across the eastern Carolinas. The most
favorable shear is expected across portions of the Northeast where
long, straight hodographs could support some supercells capable of
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Great Basin...
A deeply mixed airmass is expected Tuesday across the Great Basin
with ample instability for scattered thunderstorms across much of
the region. A belt of stronger mid-level flow around 30 knots will
exist from east-central Nevada and across north-central Utah. This
may support some storm organization with the potential for isolated
severe wind gusts given the deeply mixed sub-cloud layer.

..Bentley.. 07/17/2023

$$
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* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very
large hail and damaging winds appear possible Wednesday from the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms may also occur from the Ozarks into the lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys, along with the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will remain confined to parts of the Northwest,
Southwest, and southern Plains on Wednesday. A mid/upper-level
trough/low is forecast to move from central Canada and the northern
Plains across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period.
A belt of enhanced (35-50+ kt) mid-level northwesterly flow should
persist across these regions, and into parts of the mid MS and OH
Valleys. A separate upper trough should progress over the eastern
U.S. through the day. Multiple low-amplitude, convectively enhanced
mid-level perturbations should advance generally east-southeastward
within the west-northwesterly flow regime that will remain over much
of the central/eastern CONUS.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ozarks...
As the upper trough/low moves east-southeastward, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along and east/southeast
of a cold front. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will
foster the development of moderate to locally strong instability
from parts of MN into southeastern SD, NE, and northwestern IA.
Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will easily support supercells, with
associated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts.
Isolated very large hail appears possible across parts of
central/eastern NE and eastern MN/western WI with this activity.
Based on consensus of latest guidance, have introduced a fairly
broad Slight Risk to account for this supercell potential. The
eastern extent of the severe risk should be modulated by the narrow
zone of greater low-level moisture return.

The southern extent of supercell potential into KS is rather
uncertain, as large-scale ascent becomes increasingly modest into
the central Plains. Still, there appears to be some risk for intense
convection to develop/spread southeastward from NE into at least
northern KS through Wednesday evening. Some potential also exists
for a cluster of thunderstorms producing severe/damaging winds to
spread from eastern CO into KS and perhaps eventually parts of MO
Wednesday evening/night.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
At least isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning
across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Cloud cover and poor
lapse rates may tend to limit the development of substantial
instability until late Wednesday afternoon. Still, at least moderate instability should eventually develop and support robust updrafts.
Better chances for strong to severe convection appear to exist
along/east of a weak surface trough across eastern NC/VA/MD and
vicinity. Occasional damaging winds should be the main threat with
this activity, as deep-layer shear appears adequate for mainly
multicells and small clusters. But, some hail may also occur with
the strongest updrafts. Based on latest guidance, have expanded the
Marginal Risk across this region to include more of eastern NC/SC
and the Delmarva.

...Kentucky/Tennessee and Vicinity...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be present at the start of
the period across this region. This activity may pose at least an
isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds, as deep-layer
shear appears strong enough to support supercells. Most guidance
shows a weakening trend to this morning convection. The potential
for additional robust convective development in the wake of the
morning thunderstorms is highly uncertain. But, some chance exists
for renewed convection Wednesday afternoon/night along and south of
a weak front. The environment will conditionally support a threat
for all severe hazards, as enhanced northwesterly flow aloft appears
sufficient for supercells. Have opted to include a fairly broad
Marginal Risk across KY/TN and vicinity to account for potentially
multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through the
period.

..Gleason.. 07/18/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 241653
SWODY2
SPC AC 241652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Nebraska into the Dakotas, and across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
vicinity Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts and hail will
be the main hazards with these storms.

...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

A large scale mid/upper trough oriented from the lower Great Lakes
to the central Appalachians will pivot east across the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast on Tuesday. Large scale ascent coupled with modest
vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt) atop a
seasonally moist/unstable airmass will support scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms from early afternoon into early evening. Elongated/straight hodographs amid large instability above 850 mb
and increasing westerlies to around 35 kt between 3-6 km suggest
isolated severe hail will be possible with semi-discrete cells,
especially around the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay vicinity where
midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be steepest (around 6.5-7
C/km). Strong heating will aid in steepening low-level lapse rates,
and low-level winds will remain fairly light. This will promote
potential for strong outflow and isolated damaging gusts. Some
guidance suggests a forward propagating cluster may develop via
consolidating outflow across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity late
afternoon/early evening. As a result of these factors, the Marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across the Mid-Atlantic and a
Slight risk (level 2 of 5) introduced across the Delmarva vicinity.

...Northern/Central Plains...

A mid/upper shortwave impulse will migrate eastward from the
northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. While an
upper ridge will be oriented over the Plains, this shortwave will
provide large-scale support for thunderstorm development by late
afternoon across the central Dakotas. Southerly low-level flow will transport/maintain 60s F dewpoints. Initially strong capping will be
overcome by large-scale ascent provided by the midlevel shortwave
and persistent low-level warm advection. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon. Effective shear
magnitudes of 40+ kt combined with vertically veering wind profiles
will support initial, high-based supercells. Steep midlevel lapse
rates and elongated hodographs suggest large hail will be possible
with initial semi-discrete convection. A well-mixed boundary-layer
is forecast as temperatures warm into the 90s and will aid in strong
outflow winds. With time, some guidance suggests a forward
propagating MCS may develop and move across southeast ND/eastern SD
and parts of northeast NE during the evening. If this occurs,
damaging wind potential may persist into the nighttime hours.

Vertical shear will weaken considerably with southward extent,
though a tongue of modest boundary-layer moisture will extend into
northeast CO/northwest KS, supporting moderate destabilization.
Isolated, high-based convection is possible, posing mainly a risk
for strong outflow winds for a few hours during the late
afternoon/early evening.

..Leitman.. 07/24/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 261739
SWODY2
SPC AC 261737

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southern
New England southward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic states on
Thursday. Damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will be the primary
hazards.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough currently in the upper Midwest will continue
eastward into Thursday. This feature is forecast to reach New
England by early afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will persist
across the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge in the
northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. A surface low
will move through the Northeast along with an associated warm front
and a weak front/surface trough trailing into the Blue
Ridge/Piedmont regions. Another surface boundary in the northern
Plains into northern Minnesota/Wisconsin/Upper Peninsula Michigan
will sag southward.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Some ongoing activity is expected during the morning within the
Northeast, likely near the Canadian border. Some lingering cloud
cover can be expected perhaps into the early afternoon. Cloud cover
will generally decrease with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic.
Heating through broken cloud cover in New England should be
sufficient to promote at least 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE given the moist
airmass expected. Deep-layer shear with the shortwave trough will
not be overly strong (30-40 kts), but should allow for some storm
organization with a mix of discrete cells and multicells. Low-level
wind fields will be moderately strong and promote a risk for
damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Near the warm front,
low-level shear will also favor some potential for low-level
rotation and a threat for a couple tornadoes. Should greater surface
heating occur, greater risk for damaging winds could be realized.

Farther south into the Mid-Atlantic, weaker shear will be present.
Stronger surface heating will still promote buoyancy perhaps in
excess of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large
hail would be the main threats with activity moving off of the Blue
Ridge.

...Central High Plains into Upper Midwest...
Deep-layer shear will be maximized near the surface boundary and
weaken with southward extent across the broad region. Scattered
storms appear most likely within the higher terrain of Wyoming into
eastern Colorado. These storms would primarily pose a threat of
strong/severe wind gusts. Strong heating within the Plains could
allow for isolated strong/severe storms to develop. Forcing will be
weak and capping will keep storm development uncertain. Guidance
does show a weak surface low developing in Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin. Surface convergence may be great enough to allow a
cluster of storms to develop. Shear in this region would be
favorable for supercells initially. Large hail and strong/severe
wind gusts would be possible. Weak low-level shear and deep-layer
shear parallel to the boundary, however, suggests upscale growth
would occur relatively quickly and limit the duration of the large
hail threat.

..Wendt.. 07/26/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 271743
SWODY2
SPC AC 271741

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IOWA INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday and
Friday night across a large portion of the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain along the northern
periphery of an upper-level ridge. This flow will be confined to the
northern Plains into the upper Midwest, though some amplification of
the ridge could push moderate mid-level flow into the lower Great
Lakes as well. A surface boundary will extend from the northern
Plains into parts of the upper Midwest. A surface low is forecast to
deepen slightly in the mid-Missouri Valley. Convective outflow and
potential MCVs will also be present, but the location of these
features is a bit uncertain.

...Lower Great Lakes/Midwest...
Convection within the upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday night
into Friday morning will play a role in how convection evolves
during Friday afternoon. Guidance is variable in the placement of
the outflow/MCV from this activity. However, the general consensus
places these features within southern Wisconsin into parts of the
upper Ohio Valley. South of the outflow, strong buoyancy is expected
to develop. Shear will be strongest along and north of the boundary
and decrease with southward extent. Forcing for ascent will
generally be nebulous outside of areas impacted by the MCV. The
expectation is for a cluster or two of storms to develop and
progress eastward/southeastward into the MLCAPE reservoir. Large
hail would be possible with initial activity before upscale growth
occurs and severe/damaging winds would become the primary threat. A
corridor of greater severe wind potential could develop given the
clustering and strong instability, but uncertainty in the placement
of boundaries and the eventual convective evolution precludes an
increase in probabilities.

Convection developing within parts of Montana may be ongoing at the
beginning of the period. This activity and associated MCV could
potentially intensify if it is able to progress into the greater
buoyancy within South Dakota/Nebraska. This activity would also pose
a risk of primarily strong/damaging winds and isolated large hail
possible as well. Confidence in this scenario is also too low for
any increase in wind probabilities.

...Southwest Montana...
Stronger mid-level winds will persist across the northern Rockies.
Convection is likely to develop within the higher terrain. Steep low
and mid-level lapse rates will allow for strong wind gusts to reach
the surface. Marginally severe hail will also be possible.

...Northern Maine...
Strong westerly mid to high-level flow accompanying the
aforementioned speed max will overspread the region during the day.
It appears at least marginal destabilization will occur with surface
dewpoints well into the 60s. A band of storms along a frontal zone
will probably push eastward into Maine during the afternoon/early
evening. Isolated severe gusts are the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/27/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 280552
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over
southern New England into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday.
Damaging gusts are the primary hazard. Widely scattered severe
storms are also possible over the north-central Great Plains late
Saturday into Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain centered over the CO/NM border.
A mid-level trough will move little to the west of the Pacific
Northwest coast. Downstream over the northern Rockies, a ridge will
be west of a belt of moderate west-northwest flow over the
north-central U.S. The eastern extension of this belt of flow will
curve cyclonically over the Northeast.

...Mid MS Valley east into the Mid-Atlantic states into southern New
England...
Widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across
parts of the Northeast near/behind a cold front forecast to push
east of the coast during the day. Thunderstorms will likely begin
to develop by midday as the airmass destabilizes across southern New
England southwestward into the central Appalachians. Models
indicate a series of weak, embedded mid-level impulses will move
through parts of the southern Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Convective coverage will probably focus near these weak forcing
mechanisms during the afternoon/early evening. Several clusters
will likely evolve during the afternoon from parts of the Northeast
across the central Appalachians and westward into the mid MS Valley.
The stronger storms will be capable of isolated 60-65 mph gusts and
result in widely scattered wind damage. It seems greater convective
coverage in the form of several broken bands will extend from near
the WV/VA/KY border to the Northeast. The higher storm coverage
moving into an airmass featuring 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be
favorable for vigorous downdrafts capable of sporadic damage through
the early evening. Farther west, lower storm coverage and weaker
forcing for ascent over the mid MS Valley will likely limit both
storm coverage and storm intensity. Low-severe probabilities
(5-percent) will be maintained for the possibility for isolated
strong to locally severe thunderstorm activity.

...Black Hills and north-central Great Plains...
The northeast periphery of steep 700-500mb lapse rates will extend
from MT, which will be underneath the mid-level ridge, to areas
farther southeast over the central Great Plains. The westward
portion of a frontal zone will become draped across the central
Great Plains arching northwest to near the Black Hills/eastern WY.
Forecast soundings for the area near the Black Hills will be
favorable for supercells during the early part of the convective
life cycle (50-kt effective shear). Relatively moist low levels
(surface dewpoints generally ranging through the 50s over eastern WY
into northeast CO) beneath steep lapse rates will support
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. A gradual increase
in storm coverage is expected through the early evening over the
northeast WY/SD/northwest NE vicinity. Models have trended with
maintaining storms southeastward into much of NE during the late evening/overnight with a hail/wind risk probably continuing on at
least an isolated basis.

..Smith.. 07/28/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 281732
SWODY2
SPC AC 281730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible over southern New England into the Mid Atlantic states on
Saturday. Damaging gusts are the primary hazard. Widely scattered
severe storms are also possible over the north-central Great Plains
late Saturday into Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level ridge centered over the Divide will amplify on
Saturday. Some amplification of the cyclonic flow aloft over the
Northeast is also expected. At the surface, a frontal boundary will
continue to sag southward within the Plains into the Northeast. This
front will likely become more diffuse with time, however. Farther
west, modest moist upslope flow will occur in the central/northern
High Plains behind the boundary.

...Mid-Atlantic into southern New England...
Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop by
afternoon either along the front or along a surface trough near the
Blue Ridge. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, strong surface
heating and a very moist boundary layer will support moderate to
strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The greatest values will
likely occur within central/eastern Virginia into perhaps the
Delmarva. Farther north, more limited heating and weaker mid-level
lapse rates will limit overall destabilization. With the amplifying
upper-level pattern, moderate mid-level winds will exist as far
south as the northern Mid-Atlantic and decrease fairly rapidly to
the south. That being said, the overlap of the most buoyant air and
the greater deep-layer shear will not be spatially broad. Given the
degree of buoyancy, damaging downburst winds are the expected
primary threat with isolated large hail possible with initial storm development.

A complicating factor in the forecast will be the timing and
location of an MCV moving out of the Great Lakes region. Depending
on where this feature is located, an area of greater mesoscale shear
and storm coverage could develop within a zone from central Virginia
into the Delmarva. Confidence remains too low for an increase in
wind probabilities.

...Black Hills Vicinity...
An uncertain forecast is evident for the region. Storms associated
with a MCV moving out of Montana could be ongoing early in the
period. While these storms would likely be elevated, strong
deep-layer shear and adequate elevated buoyancy would promote some
risk for large hail and perhaps a strong/severe wind gusts. Outflow
from this early activity could also provide the focus for additional
convective development farther south into northwest Nebraska. Model
spread remains high in terms of the expected evolution. The Slight
risk will be maintained this outlook cycle, though confidence in any
one eventual scenario is low.

...Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
Moderate to strong buoyancy is anticipated south of the surface
front. Models suggest the MCV moving into the central Plains will
likely provide lift for eventual development of a cluster of
thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong,
particularly farther south from the boundary, but should be
sufficient for modest storm organization. The timing and location of development is uncertain, but intensification could occur within northern/eastern Missouri. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary
threat, though isolated large hail could also occur.

...Northern Plains...
Storm coverage will likely be limited given the amplification of the
ridge aloft. However, enough low-level moisture flowing into the
terrain should allow a few storms to develop in the northern
Rockies. Guidance also suggests development is possible in southern
Alberta with eventual movement into northeast Montana and far
western North Dakota. Shear profiles would support supercells
capable of large hail and strong/severe wind gusts.

..Wendt.. 07/28/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 020546
SWODY2
SPC AC 020544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing large hail and damaging gusts are
expected across portions of the central High Plains Thursday
afternoon and evening. Additional strong storms are possible across
parts of the Great Lakes/Northeast and the Tennessee Valley
vicinity.

...Synopsis...

The mean upper flow regime on Thursday will be characterized by a
ridge oriented over the High Plains and a trough across the eastern
third of the CONUS. A midlevel shortwave trough is expected to
migrate through the upper ridge from eastern UT/western CO into the northern/central High Plains. Across the east, several shortwave
perturbations are expected to move through the upper trough. One of
these impulses will shift east across the Great Lakes toward the St.
Lawrence Valley vicinity. Another impulse, convectively enhanced by
a storm complex in the Day 1/Wed time frame, will move across the TN
Valley vicinity. These three features will focus strong to severe
thunderstorm potential on Thursday/Thursday evening.

...Central High Plains vicinity...

Mid/upper westerly flow around 30-40 kt is forecast as the midlevel
shortwave trough ejects eastward through the afternoon/evening. East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F surface
dewpoints across the region, supporting a corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Effective-shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt will support
organized cells capable of large hail initially. Steep low-level
lapse rates and boundary-layer mixing to around 1-2 km also will
support strong outflow gusts. With time, clustering and
consolidating outflows will foster development of an MCS across
western NE/northeast CO/northwest KS during the evening. Damaging
wind potential will accompany this activity into the early overnight
hours.

...TN Valley vicinity...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
somewhere from southeast MO into Middle TN. This activity will
likely pose mainly a heavy rain threat initially before some
decrease in precipitation. However, cloudiness will likely continue
across parts of KY/TN, becoming less with southward extent. This
will result in a differential heating boundary somewhere in the
vicinity of Middle TN into northern AL/GA. Strong northwesterly
mid/upper flow for this time of year will overlap a most and
unstable airmass. Convection is expected to develop during the
afternoon along remnant outflow/differential heating zone. Organized
clusters may grow upscale into an MCS moving east/southeast across
parts of TN into northern MS/AL/GA and vicinity, and pose a
damaging-gust risk. Given the presence of a surface boundary and
increasing winds with height, some risk for a tornado or two also is
evident as SRH increases and low-level hodographs become enlarged
through the day.

Importantly, convection in the Day 1/Wed time period continuing into
Thursday morning results in some uncertainty concerning where
exactly this differential heating boundary will reside. This will
impact the eastward extent of severe potential, while weakening
vertical shear will limit southward extent. Nevertheless, confidence
has increased sufficiently to include Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5)
severe probabilities, and upgrades may be needed in subsequent
outlooks.

...Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity...

A shortwave impulse embedded in the larger-scale eastern trough will
move across the Great Lakes much of the period. A belt of 30-40 kt
midlevel flow will overlap a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead
of a south/southeast-advancing cold front. MLCAPE generally less
than 1500 J/kg is forecast amid modest midlevel lapse rates.
Low-level flow will be fairly light, but speed shear will support effective-shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Forecast soundings show elongated/straight hodographs, and marginally severe hail will be
possible with stronger updrafts. Strong heating will result in steep
low-level lapse rates, and strong outflow winds also will be
possible.

Some potential for a westward expansion of the Marginal risk (level
1 of 5) into eastern WI is possible, but uncertainty regarding
convective coverage and a more conditional risk with westward extent
precludes probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/02/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 030533
SWODY2
SPC AC 030532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging gusts are possible
across parts of the Northeast on Friday afternoon. Additional strong
storms are possible along a broad arc from the central Plains to the
Southeast.

...Northeast...

An upper trough will be oriented over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic
on Friday. Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper flow will overlap a
seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of a southeastward-advancing
surface cold front. While temperatures will be relatively cool (70s
to near 80 F), modest midlevel lapse rates and 60s F boundary-layer
dewpoints will support MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg. Effective shear
magnitudes around 25-35 kt will foster organized cells capable of
producing hail to around 1.5 inch diameter, along with widely
scattered damaging gusts. Convection should weaken by evening as
storms approach the coast.

...AR to Southern GA/Northern FL...

Convection will be ongoing during the morning in an arc roughly from
MO to TN into GA/SC. Outflow and a zone of differential heating
related to this early day activity will be focus for thunderstorm development/intensification during the afternoon, and a Marginal
risk (Level 1 of 5) has been included. Moderate northwesterly flow
aloft will persist over the region, similar to the past few days,
atop a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm
clusters posing a risk for damaging gusts are possible. Some
forecast guidance suggests a forward-propagating MCS may develop
somewhere from MS/AL into southern GA/northern FL. However, this
will largely depend on how convection from the Day 1/Thu into early
Day 2/Fri evolves. Confidence in the corridor of greater severe
potential is too low at this time to include a Slight (Level 2 of 5)
risk, but upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

...Central Plains...

Another day of moist, upslope low-level flow within moderately
unstable environment will support thunderstorm development near the
central High Plains by late afternoon. A cold front is also forecast
to develop southward across NE into KS during the evening/nighttime
hours, while a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens across the
southern Plains into KS. Thunderstorm clusters, initially posing a
risk for hail and strong gusts, are expected to develop into and
east/southeast progressing MCS. It is unclear at this time how
severe this developing MCS may be. Quite a bit of MLCINH is noted
in forecast guidance across KS toward the MO Valley near the 850-700
mb thermal ridge, and potentially associated with areas of morning
convection. This precludes higher than Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk probabilities at this time, though upgrades may be needed in
subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 08/03/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 040558
SWODY2
SPC AC 040557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO WESTERN IOWA AND MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central
Plains to the Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on
Saturday. Damaging gusts and large hail will be primary severe
weather hazards.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the central/northern Plains will move
east-southeast Saturday, accompanied by a belt of seasonably strong
mid-level flow over the central Plains. An upper trough over Quebec
Province and New England will lift northeast during the day.
Expansive upper-level high pressure will extend from the central
Gulf Coast into the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico. Surface low
pressure will move east from southeast SD to southern MN as a
trailing cold front moves east across the central Plains.

...Central/southern Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across KS/MO,
with a convectively-induced baroclinic zone possible in the vicinity
of the KS/OK border in the wake of early day storms. Steep mid-level
lapse rates and diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer
will result in moderate/strong MLCAPE developing in advance of the
cold front, and 30-40 kt westerly mid-level flow will be sufficient
for organized storms. Thunderstorm development is expected near the
front from eastern CO north east across southeast SD as CINH weakens
and ascent with the approaching upper trough overspreads the area.
Both supercell and multicell storm modes are likely with a risk for
damaging gusts and large hail. Some tornado risk may exist near the
surface low Saturday afternoon with a more discrete storm in the
presence of locally higher low-level shear and lower LCL heights.
With time, storms should evolve into an organized MCS over western
KS vicinity aided by warm/moist advection with a modest
nocturnally-increasing low-level jet. An increase in severe
probabilities may be warranted in future outlooks in this area as
the impacts from early day storms are more fully assessed.

..Bunting.. 08/04/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070549
SWODY2
SPC AC 070547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO COASTAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central
Plains Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Damaging gusts and
large to very large hail will be possible. Severe thunderstorms also
are possible Tuesday afternoon across parts of central/southern Alabama/Georgia, posing mainly a damaging wind risk. Other more
isolated strong to severe storms are expected across parts of
southern New England where strong gusts and a tornado are possible.

...Synopsis...

An active pattern with several shortwave impulses migrating through
moderate west/northwesterly flow is expected from the central Plains
into the Southeast on Tuesday. A mid/upper shortwave trough will
also shift east over the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure
near Lake Ontario will shift northeast along the St. Lawrence
Valley. A cold front attendant to the low will develop eastward
across southern New England through the day and offshore the
northeast Atlantic coast during the evening/overnight. The southern
extent of the front will stall over South Carolina. Southerly
low-level flow will maintain a very moist airmass from the central
Plains into the Southeast.

...Southeast...

Residual outflow from convection in the Day 1 period may reside from
northern MS into central AL/GA. This will result in differential
heating ahead of convection expected to be ongoing across eastern
OK/AR Tuesday morning in response to a vorticity maximum migrating
through northwesterly flow aloft. As this convectively enhanced
vorticity max and related MCV shifts east by early afternoon,
thunderstorm are expected to increase rapidly from MS into
central/southern AL. Given 30-40 kt midlevel westerly flow in the
vicinity of a west to east oriented surface boundary, an organized
cluster/MCS is forecast to spread east across central/southern
AL/GA. Strong instability, steep low-level lapse rates and high PW
values will support damaging gust potential as convection spreads
east toward the GA coast by late afternoon/early evening.

...Central Plains...

A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to spread from the Great
Basin to the central Rockies on Tuesday. Southeasterly low-level
flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across parts of NE into KS and
northeast CO. Steep midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km atop the moist boundary-layer will support MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Meanwhile,
effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial
supercells. Elongated hodographs/favorable vertical shear, coupled
with steep midlevel lapse rates, suggest large to very large hail
will be possible. A modest southerly low-level jet is expected to
develop during the evening/overnight and convection may grow upscale
into a severe MCS as storms shift east/southeast from the High
Plains into central NE/northern KS. Vertically veering wind profiles
will result in favorably curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity
of a surface trough across northeast CO into southwest NE, and a
tornado is possible in this corridor from late afternoon/evening.
Timing of convection is a little uncertain as the main upper wave is
expected to eject a bit late, with larger-scale ascent overspreading
the region during the evening/overnight. However, isolated storms
will likely develop by late afternoon in low-level upslope flow and
strong diurnal heating of the moist airmass.

...Northeast...

Storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning in a warm advection
band ahead of the surface cold front. Backed low-level winds and
juxtaposition to the surface low will result in 0-1 km SRH greater
than 250 s2/m2. While instability will be on the weak side, surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and favorable shear could
support a tornado or two. Isolated strong gusts are also possible
with warm advection storms, and with any convection that may develop
during the afternoon along the eastward-advancing cold front.

..Leitman.. 08/07/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090558
SWODY2
SPC AC 090556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains, and from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia on Thursday. Highest severe
thunderstorm coverage is expected across the central and eastern
Carolinas.

..TN Valley into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the
middle/upper OH Valley southwestward through the TN Valley early
Thursday morning, ahead of shortwave trough moving through the OH
and TN Valleys. This broad area of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to gradually shift eastward as the shortwave trough
continues eastward throughout the day. These showers and
thunderstorm should limit destabilization across the Upper OH Valley
and northern Mid-Atlantic, but some potential for destabilization
exists farther south from eastern TN and northern AL/GA into the
Carolinas and southern VA. Thunderstorm development would be likely
in this area as the approaching cold front interacts with the
destabilized air mass. Strong mid-level flow supports the potential
for organized storms, with a bowing/line segment mode most likely.

One caveat regarding that scenario is the potential for early period
showers and thunderstorms to linger and limit destabilization.
Additionally, there is also some potential for the early storms to
be strong enough to overturn the airmass. Despite these
uncertainties, strong deep-layer shear suggests any robust
convection could be severe, and 15% wind probabilities were
introduced across the central and eastern Carolinas where highest
confidence in storms exists. Less buoyancy is anticipated with
northern extent into VA, but strong wind fields merit a northward
expansion of the 5% wind probabilities.

...Northern Plains...
Low 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across eastern NE and into southeast/south-central SD by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a
shortwave trough and its associated surface low and cold front. The
combination of 60s dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will
result in moderate buoyancy, and thunderstorm development is
anticipated as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass.
Initially isolated thunderstorm coverage is anticipated during the
late afternoon, with environmental conditions supporting supercells
capable of large hail and damaging gusts.

Strengthening low-level flow could aid in upscale growth, with the
resulting convective line likely tracking southeastward into IA.
However, overall confidence in upscale growth is currently low,
largely as a result of likely isolated severe coverage.

Warm-air advection thunderstorms are also possible across IA
Thursday night, with an attendant risk for severe hail. 5% hail
probabilities were expanded eastward to cover this threat.

...Southern New England...
A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move eastward through
the broadly cyclonic flow over the eastern CONUS south of the
mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and Quebec. This evolution will
encourage the deepening of a surface low moving ahead of these waves northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New
England. Current expectation is for the low to move fairly close to
the coast, with some potential for the warm sector to move inland
from eastern Long Island and eastern MA/Cape Cod. Strong, veering
wind profiles could support a few more organized thunderstorms
capable of damaging gusts and/or a tornado or two.

..Mosier.. 08/09/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 100522
SWODY2
SPC AC 100521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and
perhaps a tornado or two are possible across portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest on Friday.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...
Upper ridging is expected to build across the southern Plains and
Southwest on Friday, as a pair of shortwave troughs traverse the
belt of enhanced flow north of this ridging from the northern Plains
into the Northeast. Lead shortwave is expected to move quickly
through northern New England early in the period, while the
westernmost shortwave drops from the Canadian Prairie Provinces
through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.

A moist air mass is expected to be in place ahead of this shortwave,
with dewpoints ranging from the low 70s across eastern KS to the mid
60s across Lower MI. Strong diurnal heating will combine with this
low-level moisture to support moderate to strong buoyancy across the
entire region by the early afternoon. Surface low associated with
the approaching shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern
WI during the afternoon. An attendant cold front is expected to move
across IA and southern WI/northern IL during same period.
Convergence along this front will be minimized by veered surface
winds preceding the frontal passage. However, only minimal
convective inhibition is anticipated, and there will likely be
enough lift near the front for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development. The moderate to strong vertical shear in
place will support updraft organization, with large hail and
damaging gusts possible with the more robust/mature cells. There
will also likely be enough low-level shear to support a
low-probability tornado threat. Warm-air advection is also expected
to support thunderstorms across lower MI, where environmental
conditions support an isolated severe potential.

Thunderstorms are also expected to develop across MN late Friday
afternoon as the shortwave moves through the region. Robust
mid-level flow associated with this shortwave will result in a
strongly sheared environment (i.e. 50 to 60 kt of effective bulk
shear). This strong shear will support supercells capable of large
hail and damaging gusts. Some potential for upscale growth will
exist with this activity.

...Southeast States...
A very moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast,
with moderate to strong buoyancy expected to develop by
mid-afternoon. The glancing influence of a weak vorticity maximum
progressing through the TN into the Carolinas and/or outflow from
preceding storms may aid in thunderstorm development after the
airmass destabilizes. Shear will be modest, limiting storm
organization, but scattered to numerous storm coverage combined with
an outflow-dominant storm mode will support a risk for isolated
damaging gusts across much of the region.

..Mosier.. 08/10/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 110601
SWODY2
SPC AC 110559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions Ohio Valley and
Northeast States, and southern/central High Plains on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely begin the period over
the Upper Great Lakes, within a belt of stronger mid-level flow
extending from the northern High Plains through the Upper Great
Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast. This shortwave is forecast
to continue eastward into eastern Ontario and throughout the day as
several vorticity maxima progress through its base. Another
shortwave trough is expected to drop through the northern High
Plains early Sunday morning.

At the surface, a low associated with the Great Lakes shortwave
trough is expected to move eastward across eastern Ontario and far
southern Quebec, with an attendant cold front pushing eastward
across PA and NY throughout the day.

Elsewhere, upper ridging will persist across the southern Plains and
Southeast, and an upper low will drift slowly eastward towards
central/southern CA.

...Northeast...
A moderately moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Early day
warm-air advection showers are expected, with at least some
potential for these storms to become surface based as the downstream
airmass destabilizes during the late morning/early afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible along and within the
warm sector ahead of the front. Strengthening mid-level flow will
contribute to moderate vertical shear, increasing the potential for
organized storms. A mix of discrete storms and bowing line segments
appears likely, with at least some potential for a coherent
convective line along the front. All severe hazards are possible,
with damaging gusts as the main threat within any bowing segments.
More discrete storms could produce large hail and perhaps even a
tornado.

...OH Valley...
A large amount of the guidance has trended towards the development
of an organized convective line late Friday, which then moves into
the Lower OH and TN Valleys early Saturday morning, posing a low-end
wind threat. Cloud cover associated with this system could limit destabilization across the Lower/Mid OH Valley until later in the
afternoon. With the primary forcing farther north, only modest
ascent is anticipated across this area. This limited forcing
combined with tempered destabilization should keep storm coverage
isolated across IL and IN. Greatest storm coverage is expected
across OH and PA where the large-scale forcing is forecast to be a
bit stronger. Moderate vertical shear will be in place areawide, and
a few organized storms capable of hail and/or damaging gusts are
possible. Veered low-level flow should limit the tornado risk, but
there is low-probability threat, particularly with any storms that
interact with previous outflow or lake-induced boundaries.

...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains...
Post-frontal easterly flow is expected to strengthen throughout the
day across from southwest KS into northeast NM and southeast CO,
with resulting low-level moisture advection helping to offset
mixing. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
Raton Mesa vicinity, with high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse
rates favoring outflow-dominant storm structures. These storms then
moving eastward into the region where 60s dewpoints and moderate
buoyancy are expected to be in place. Vertically veering wind
profiles will also contribute to moderate deep-layer shear over the
region. Expectation is for these storms to undergo upscale
growth/cold pool amalgamation as they move into southwest KS and the OK/northern TX Panhandle, with an attendant threat for damaging
gusts.

...SD/NE...
A strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air advection are
expected ahead an approaching shortwave trough and attendant surface
low/cold front across NE and SD late Saturday evening. This warm-air
advection will likely support thunderstorm development amid westerly
flow strong enough for updraft organization. Some isolated large
hail is possible with initial development, with a trend toward
outflow-dominant storm structures and occasional damaging gusts
thereafter.

..Mosier.. 08/11/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 120600
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night from portions of the southern and central Plains into the
Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress southeastward
across the northern and central Plains on Sunday, ending the period
extended from central MN southeastward into north-central KS. An
associated surface low is expected to begin the period near the
central SD/NE border before then progressing eastward throughout the
day, reaching southeast MN by late Sunday night/early Monday
morning. As this low moves eastward, an attendant cold front will
sweep southeastward across the central Plains. By 00Z this front is
expected to extend from the low over west-central MN southward to a
triple point near the IA/NE/MO border intersection and then
southwestward across KS into the northern TX Panhandle.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period near the surface low over the middle MO Valley. Buoyancy
will be modest, but moderate vertical shear could support a strong
storm or two. Early period activity is expected farther south across
the Lower MO Valley/Ozarks as well. This southern activity will be
the remnant of an overnight convective line across KS and OK.
Current expectation is for these storms to diminish by late
morning/early afternoon as the low-level jet weakens and continue
eastward. However, outflow associated with this cluster could play a significant role in the severe potential across the Lower MO and Mid
MS Valley later.

The cold front is forecast to continue progressing
eastward/southeastward during the afternoon, and thunderstorm
development is anticipated as it reaches east-central NE and western
IA. Moderate buoyancy and shear could support a few stronger storms,
with damaging gusts as the primary risk. As the front continues
southeastward, the residual outflow initially across southeast KS
and southern MO is expected to begin returning northward as a warm
front. By the late afternoon/evening, open warm-sector development
is possible across eastern KS and central/southern MO, with storm
intensity likely increasing along the front as well. Primary threat
for storms along the front is damaging gusts, while all severe
hazards are possible with any warm-sector storms.

Complex convective evolution is possible during the evening as the
cold front, and its associated thunderstorms, interact with the warm
front, and its associated warm-sector storms in the southern
MO/southern IL vicinity. Some potential for upscale growth into an
organized convective system exists, but if and where this occurs is
still fairly uncertain. Higher wind probabilities may be needed in
later outlook if a corridor of MCS progression becomes more
predictable. Even if an organized MCS doesn't develop, some severe
potential will still extend through the Mid MS Valley into the Lower
OH Valley throughout the evening and overnight.

...Southern High Plains into southern KS and northern OK...
Thunderstorm development appears possible on both the cold front
moving across western KS as well as an outflow boundary that will
likely be in place from a preceding MCS. Strong heating will help
destabilize the airmass, with moderate buoyancy and little to no
convective inhibition in place by the late afternoon. A belt of
stronger mid-level flow will extend across this area as well,
supporting 40 to 50 kt of effective bulk shear. These environmental
conditions will support robust, organized updrafts capable of large
hail and damaging gusts. Some potential for cold-pool amalgamation
is possible, with the resultant convective line moving likely eastward/northeastward into more of south-central KS and
north-central OK.

...Eastern New England...
Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to be in place across the
region ahead of a weak cold front. Airmass destabilization is
anticipated ahead of this front as temperatures climb into the upper
70s and low 80s. Lift along the front will be augmented by
large-scale ascent from a glancing low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving across far southern Quebec and northern ME. Interaction
between this lift and a destabilized airmass is forecast to result
in thunderstorm development along and ahead of the front. Vertical
shear should be strong enough to support a few organized storms
capable of hail and/or damaging gusts.

..Mosier.. 08/12/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening
across the Middle/Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will begin the period extended from the Upper
Midwest southwestward into central KS, with strong mid-level flow of
50-70 kt anticipated through its base. This shortwave is forecast to
progress eastward throughout the day, with its attendant mid-level
flow strengthening as it spreads eastward across the OH Valley.

Primary surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be
over eastern IA early Monday morning, before then progressing
eastward across northern portions of OH Valley throughout the day.
An attendant cold front will extend southeastward from this low,
moving eastward/southeastward across the OH, TN, and Mid MS Valleys
as the low moves eastward.

...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Surface pattern preceding the shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis will be complicated by the evolution of thunderstorms
Sunday night, with the low-level moisture field influenced by this
overnight activity as well. Current expectation is for the cluster
of showers and thunderstorms remaining from the overnight activity
to be over OH and WV early Monday morning. Outflow from these storms
will likely extend across northern KY to another surface low over
the southern IL vicinity. This triple-point low is then forecast to
progress east-northeastward across the OH Valley just ahead of the
approaching cold front. As it does, the outflow will return north as
a warm front, with low 70s dewpoints expected within the warm
sector.

This evolution is expected to result in airmass destabilization
ahead of the cold front. Large-scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough will spread over the OH Valley as well.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the front
as a result, with moderate vertical shear supporting some organized
storm structures. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat,
with storms expected to mature into bowing line segments.

A somewhat separate scenario is anticipated during the afternoon and
evening downstream across VA and NC, as the vorticity maximum left
from the Sunday night's storms moves into the region during peak
heating. Mesoscale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum
coupled with low-level convergence on a weak surface trough will
likely result in thunderstorm development once the airmass
destabilizes. Vertical shear will be weaker here, but strong
buoyancy should still result in robust updrafts and a few strong to
severe storms.

...Southwest...
Mid-level moisture is expected to move through the western periphery
of the southern Plains ridging and into the region on Monday.
Widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected Monday afternoon and
evening as the airmass destabilizes amid this favorable mid-level
moisture and strong heating. A few strong downbursts are possible
from these high-based storms. However, generally southerly flow
throughout the column may keep storms out of the lower elevations
where gusts are more likely. As such, no probabilities were
introduced with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 08/13/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 140557
SWODY2
SPC AC 140556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon and
evening from southern New England into Georgia. Highest
severe-thunderstorm coverage is expected from the southern Delmarva
Peninsula through southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will likely extend from southern Ontario
southwestward into the Mid-South early Tuesday morning before then
progressing eastward across the OH and TN Valleys into the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. Strong mid-level flow will
accompany this shortwave, beginning the period stretched from the TN
Valley into southern New England. This belt of stronger flow will
move eastward in tandem with its parent shortwave, likely stretching
from the western Carolinas through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England at 00Z Wednesday.

Surface pattern early Tuesday will likely feature a pair of surface
lows, one over the Lower Great Lakes and the other closer to the
NY/PA/NJ border intersection. The western low is forecast to fill
throughout the day, while the eastward low gradually deepens and
moves northeastward just off the southern New England coast.

A cold front should extend southwestward from the eastern low
through the western Carolinas into the Southeast early Tuesday
morning. This front is forecast to progress eastward/southeastward
throughout the day, with greater eastward progression anticipated
farther north closer to more progressive portion of the shortwave
trough.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southern New
England early Tuesday morning, near the eastern surface low (and
associated warm front) mentioned in the synopsis. Buoyancy will be
limited and much of the activity will likely be north of the warm
front. Even so, isolated surface-based storms near the warm front
may persist long enough for some organization, with an attendant
threat for damaging gusts and perhaps even a tornado.

...Mid-Atlantic into GA...
A moist low-level airmass, characterized by dewpoints in the low
70s, will be in place ahead of the cold front from VA southward into
the Southeast. Airmass destabilization is anticipated amid strong
daytime heating, with moderate to strong buoyancy expected by the
early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as the cold
front impinges on this environment. The strongest vertical shear is
expected from northern NC northward, with the resulting combination
of shear and buoyancy expected to support severe thunderstorms.
Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk. More isolated
severe-storm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
Southeast, where vertical shear is weaker.

...AZ...
Numerous thunderstorms are possible across AZ as mid-level moisture
remains over the region. Greatest coverage is expected over the
higher terrain, but some storms are possible over the lower deserts
as well. Even so, there is still uncertainty regarding overall
coverage into the lower deserts, and low-level easterly flow will be
weak. These factors are expected to keep the severe-thunderstorm
risk isolated.

..Mosier.. 08/14/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 150530
SWODY2
SPC AC 150528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Upper Midwest Wednesday evening.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the
Canadian Prairie Provinces into western Ontario and adjacent
portions of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave trough, with 50
to 70 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across MN by late Wednesday
afternoon/early evening, and across WI and the Upper Great Lakes by
early Thursday morning. Surface low associated with this system will
stay north of the international border, but an attendant cold front
is expected to sweep quickly southeastward across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest.

Elsewhere, upper ridging is expected to build northward from the
Southwest through the Great Basin and into the eastern Pacific
Northwest. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the Four Corners
vicinity, where mid-level moisture will remain in place beneath this
upper ridging. Weak vertical shear will limit the
severe-thunderstorm potential in this area. Thunderstorms are also
expected from NC southward into FL, where a moist airmass will
remain in place ahead of a stalled front. Weak vertical shear should
limit the severe-thunderstorm potential.

...Upper Midwest...
Cold front mentioned in the synopsis will likely extend from
northwestern Ontario southwestward through northwest MN and eastern
ND into central SD at 18Z. By 00Z, this front is expected to extend
from the MN Arrowhead southwestward through the SD/MN/NE border
vicinity and into central NE. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints should be
in place ahead of this front across MN. Strong diurnal heating is
also expected ahead of this front, but warm and dry southwesterly
low-level flow could prevent the airmass from fully destabilizing.
As a result, some guidance keeps significant convective inhibition
in place from the mid MO Valley into southern MN.

Given these conditions, thunderstorm development appears most likely
to begin along the front across northern MN around 18Z. Development
should then gradually build southward as the front continues
eastward. Given the forcing along the front, a predominantly linear
mode appears most likely, with robust wind fields contributing to a
risk for strong gusts. Hail also appears possible, particularly with
any early, more cellular development. Elevated storm development may
also occur behind the front, with some hail possible in this
activity as well.

..Mosier.. 08/15/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 180443
SWODY2
SPC AC 180442

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
A mid-level low, initially centered over portions of northern New
England and the adjacent St. Lawrence Valley, is forecast to remain
progressive during this period, as consolidating upstream mid-level
troughing within the westerlies accelerates into and across the
Hudson/James Bay vicinity. Much of the remainder of the U.S., to
the east of the Rockies, will remain under the influence of
expanding mid-level ridging, which may become centered over the
central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity. Farther west,
models indicate that weak mid-level troughing will prevail along
much of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Baja Peninsula. Within
southerly deep-layer mean flow to the east of this trough axis,
Hurricane Hilary may gradually accelerate northward into the Pacific
waters near/west of Baja California Sur.

Strongest potential instability Saturday may become focused in a
corridor along and ahead of a southward advancing cold front
associated with the Canadian short wave, across parts of the upper
Mississippi Valley into portions of the mid Missouri Valley and
eastern portions of the central Great Plains. This likely will be
aided by strong heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer,
beneath a very warm elevated mixed layer. But, it appears that
forcing for ascent beneath the mid-level ridge will be too weak to
overcome the mid-level inhibition and support sustained thunderstorm development.

Monsoonal moisture may support considerable thunderstorm development
Saturday across the West, from the Sierra Nevada, northern
California coastal ranges, and portions of the southern Cascades
into the northern Rockies. Further strengthening of southerly
mid-level flow and lower/mid-tropospheric moistening is forecast
downstream of Hilary, across much of the Southwest, centered on the
lower Colorado Valley. While thunderstorm activity developing within
this regime could pose some risk for rather localized downbursts,
the increasingly saturated low-level profiles seem likely to
minimize the overall risk for severe surface gusts during this
period.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 201720
SWODY2
SPC AC 201719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARIZONA
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of Arizona
into the eastern Great Basin vicinity through Monday evening, posing
a risk for strong gusts and hail. Additional strong storms with a
risk of hail are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest Monday evening/ovenright.

...Synopsis...

A strong upper anticyclone will be centered over the Lower MO Valley
on Monday. Much of the U.S. from the Rockies to the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic coasts will remain under the influence of the strong
upper ridge. A belt of stronger mid/upper level flow will exist on
the western and northern periphery of the upper ridge over AZ into
the Great Basin, arcing north/east across MT to the upper Great
Lakes.

A very moist airmass will reside beneath the upper ridge over much
of the Midwest. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to upper 70s F
are forecast from the lower/mid-MO to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley
vicinity. A surface front will stretch from a weak low over SD
eastward across central MN into WI and Lower MI. Strong instability
will exist across the warm sector, but strong midlevel capping will
preclude thunderstorm activity across much of the Midwest. The
exception will be within the band of stronger mid/upper westerlies
across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity where elevated
convection during the evening/overnight may pose a Marginal (level 1
of 5) severe risk. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms will be
possible within the belt of stronger southerly mid/upper flow and
abundant midlevel moisture across AZ and the eastern Great Basin
vicinity.

...AZ/UT/ID/WY...

A band of 30-50 kt 700-500 mb southerly flow will overspread the
region in conjunction with a plume of strong midlevel moisture. At
the surface, near-60 F dewpoints will overspread south-central AZ,
with upper 40s to 50s F dewpoints spreading northward across UT into
western WY/eastern ID. While cloudiness will limit stronger heating/destabilization, modest midlevel lapse rates combined with a
rather moist thermodynamic profile for this part of the country will
allow for 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear magnitudes greater
than 25-30 kt also will support organized convection. Strong to
severe gusts will be possible. Across south-central AZ where
stronger boundary-layer moisture and greater heating may occur,
isolated large hail also is possible. Muted heating/weaker
instability across UT/ID/WY will likely preclude higher severe
potential, but a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in future
outlooks across parts of AZ if confidence increases in greater
coverage of severe storms.

...Upper Midwest...

Capping will likely preclude surface-based convection. However, warm
advection during the evening/overnight atop the west to east
oriented surface front will allow for elevated thunderstorm
development. Modest midlevel lapse rates and strong MUCAPE will
support isolated vigorous updrafts. Marginally severe hail will be
possible with these stronger cells.

..Leitman.. 08/20/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280602
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for a few tornadoes should gradually increase
along/near parts of the Florida Gulf Coast and into north Florida
through Tuesday night as Tropical Cyclone Idalia approaches.

...Florida into Southeast Georgia...
TC Idalia is forecast by the NHC to strengthen into a hurricane over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Given the latest forecast track
and model consensus, 50+ kt of southerly low-level flow will likely
overspread much of the central/northern FL Peninsula Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. Increasingly elongated and curved
low-level hodographs are anticipated as this occurs, with 0-1 km SRH
quickly strengthening to 200+ m2/s2. This ample low-level shear will
foster updraft rotation with any low-topped supercells that can form
in outer rain bands.

The corresponding threat for isolated tornadoes is expected to
increase Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning as TC
Idalia approaches and eventually moves onshore along parts of the FL
Gulf Coast. Even though instability should remain fairly weak across
much of FL owing to poor lapse rates and a nearly saturated profile,
various NAM/GFS forecast soundings along the FL Gulf Coast show
sufficient boundary-layer instability and a very rich/moist
low-level airmass to support surface-based thunderstorms. A Slight
Risk has been introduced across parts of north/central FL, where
confidence is highest that a few tornadoes may occur. This tornado
threat will likely persist into Day 3/Wednesday as TC Idalia
continues to move northeastward. The Marginal Risk has also been
expanded to include more of the FL Peninsula, the Keys, and far
southeastern GA, where strong/gusty winds may occur Tuesday
afternoon with convection well removed from TC Idalia.

...Northwest...
An upper trough will move eastward across the Northwest on Tuesday. South-southwesterly mid-level flow should gradually strengthen
through the day across interior portions of the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies. Around 25-40 kt of effective bulk shear
associated with this enhanced flow should provide for some updraft
organization with any thunderstorms that can be sustained. Latest
guidance continues to suggest that convection will form initially
over eastern WA/OR into western ID, and quickly advance
north-northeastward into western MT Tuesday afternoon and evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and steepened low/mid-level lapse rates
should support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with any
clusters that can form. Isolated hail may also occur with any more
discrete thunderstorms, but instability and low-level moisture both
look to remain fairly limited.

...Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop across parts of the
southern/central Appalachians as modest ascent associated with an
upper trough over eastern Canada and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
moves slowly eastward. Enough mid-level flow and modest deep-layer
shear may exist to support some updraft organization, but poor lapse
rates should tend to limit instability and updraft strength. At this
point, the potential for strong/gusty winds appears too limited to
include low severe probabilities.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A cold front should move southeastward across the Great Lakes and
parts of the Midwest/OH Valley in tandem with an slowly
eastward-moving upper trough. At least weak instability may develop
along/ahead of the front through Tuesday afternoon, even though
low-level moisture should remain fairly limited/shallow. While some
threat for gusty winds may exist with any convection that can
develop, the overall severe threat should remain generally low.

..Gleason.. 08/28/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 290602
SWODY2
SPC AC 290600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN/COASTAL GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for a few tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclone
Idalia will likely continue Wednesday across parts of north Florida, coastal/southeastern Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas.

...Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas...
TC Idalia is forecast by the NHC to be located near the Big Bend
region of FL at the start of the period Wednesday morning. This
cyclone should continue to move northeastward across parts of north
FL into southeastern GA, and eventually along/near the SC Coast by
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Very strong low-level flow
will likely be present with TC Idalia given its forecast strength at
the time of landfall, with some guidance showing 50-70+ kt at 850 mb
across north FL Wednesday morning. Ample low-level shear and
favorable hodograph curvature/0-1 km SRH will easily support
rotating updrafts with any low-topped supercells that can develop in
outer rain bands to the east/northeast of the center. Some
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability remains, especially for
more inland areas of north FL into southern GA. Still, the presence
of mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints and strong low-level
warm/moist advection should help compensate for nearly
saturated/poor mid-level lapse rates. Even modest/filtered daytime
heating should also encourage the development of weak instability
across coastal/southeastern GA and eastern SC through the day.

Based on the latest forecast track of TC Idalia, tornado potential
should initially be focused over parts of north FL Wednesday morning
where the best low-level shear and weak instability are expected to
overlap. The greatest risk for a few tornadoes should gradually
shift northeastward into coastal/southeastern GA and eastern SC
Wednesday afternoon and evening as TC Idalia continues moving
northeastward. There is still some uncertainty with how far inland
the very moist low-level airmass will extend across these areas.
Regardless, most high-resolution guidance shows multiple rain bands
on the eastern periphery of TC Idalia impacting southeastern GA and
eastern SC Wednesday afternoon/evening. Have expanded the Slight
Risk inland a bit across these areas to account for this potential,
while also including more of coastal NC in the Slight Risk for a
continued tornado threat along/very near the coast and parts of the
Outer Banks late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.

...New England...
An amplified upper trough will advance eastward across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and eastern Canada on Wednesday. Strong (50+
kt) mid-level flow is forecast to overspread much of New England
through the day. Showers and thunderstorms should move quickly
eastward across this region through Wednesday afternoon along or
just ahead of a cold front. While isolated strong/gusty winds may
accompany some of this convection, poor lapse rates and weak
instability should temper the threat for severe wind gusts.

..Gleason.. 08/29/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 291722
SWODY2
SPC AC 291721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE
IDALIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible in association with Hurricane
Idalia Wednesday from the Florida Big bend across southeast Georgia
and into the eastern Carolinas.

...FL...GA...Coastal Carolinas
The center of Hurricane Idalia is forecast to be near the coastal FL
Big Bend early Wednesday morning, with a gradually veering
northeastward track forecast by NHC across southeast GA through
evening. A plume of greater instability by way of higher dewpoints
will lead to sufficient instability for a few embedded supercells
with tornado threat generally east of the central track. A relative
minimum in instability may exist for a time across southern GA, with
a secondary instability plume developing off the Atlantic and
affecting the coastal Carolinas Wednesday night. Although the
greatest tornado threat will remain east of the actual center track,
tornado probabilities currently extend slightly westward to account
for uncertainty in center position.

...Northeast...
A sharply amplified upper trough will move across NY and New England
during the day, providing cooling aloft and aiding in weak
destabilization. Low-level winds will quickly veer and likely reduce
SRH. While deep-layer shear will be strong, the lack of instability
is expected to preclude severe chances as rain with embedded thunder
translates across the area relatively early.

...MT into ND...
A shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will move across MT
during the day, with a cold front moving from eastern MT into the
western Dakotas through the afternoon. This westerly low-level flow
regime behind the wind shift will result in relatively stable
conditions, but steepening lapse rates could yield convective
showers and weak thunderstorms across central and western MT during
the day.

Farther east, isolated cells may develop from late afternoon through
the evening from eastern MT into ND, aided by a low-level jet.
Elevated instability will generally be weak, but a few strong gusts
or small hail cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 08/29/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 300600
SWODY2
SPC AC 300558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The tornado potential associated with Tropical Cyclone Idalia should
become focused offshore the North Carolina Coast by late Thursday
morning. Elsewhere, organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Eastern North Carolina/Outer Banks...
The most recent NHC forecast track for TC Idalia and latest guidance
consensus generally shows that the center of circulation should be
slightly offshore the SC/NC Coast at the start of the period
Thursday morning. East-northeasterly low-level winds should be
present over eastern NC and the Outer Banks after 12Z Thursday
morning, with the low-level flow forecast to become less favorable
with time for updraft rotation over land as TC Idalia continues
moving generally eastward. Due to the limited forecast instability
and less favorable shear anticipated as the low-level flow quickly
backs to north-northeasterly, have not included low severe
probabilities along the immediate coastal portions of NC and the
southern Outer Banks after 12Z Thursday morning.

...Southwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should occur Thursday across
parts of the central Rockies into the southern Great Basin and
Southwest as an upper trough digs southward over the western states.
While stronger instability should develop Thursday afternoon across
parts of AZ into the lower CO River Valley where greater low-level
moisture is present, modest deep-layer shear should generally temper
the potential for organized severe thunderstorms across these areas.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
An upper trough/low should move slowly eastward across south-central
Canada and the northern Plains through the day, with enhanced
mid-level flow forecast to overspread much of the Dakotas.
Limited/shallow low-level moisture ahead of a front is forecast to
be insufficient to breach a substantial cap shown in various
forecast soundings across this area, suggesting the overall severe
threat should remain low.

..Gleason.. 08/30/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 011733
SWODY2
SPC AC 011731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will remain situated near coastal northern CA on
Saturday, with an upper high over the central Plains. Between the
two features, southerly flow will maintain moisture over the Great
basin and parts of the Southwest, with daytime showers and
thunderstorms common.

Areas of clouds and ongoing precipitation early in the day will
inhibit heating in many areas, and as such MLCAPE is likely to be
limited to 500 J/kg over much of the region. Activity is likely
during the morning from northwest AZ across much of NV, with
thunderstorm probabilities maximized during the late afternoon with
the aid of heating.

Forecast soundings show limited lapse rates relative to Friday, but
modest deep-layer shear does exist with around 35 kt. Sporadic
strong gusts may occur anywhere within the region, but overall
severe probabilities appear low. Straight hodographs and cooler air
aloft closer to the upper low from northern NV into southern ID may
support small hail.

..Jewell.. 09/01/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 040553
SWODY2
SPC AC 040552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with isolated large hail and damaging winds will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains on
Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, mid-level flow will be southwesterly
over much of the upper Mississippi Valley. An associated cold front
will move eastward from the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F ahead of the
front. In response to surface heating, moderate to strong
instability is forecast to develop from Iowa northeastward into
Wisconsin. Thunderstorms appear likely develop along and ahead of
the front around midday, with storms moving eastward into the
stronger instability across the upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest cell coverage is forecast to develop during the late
afternoon and early evening across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa,
but more isolated storms will also be possible southward into parts
of the mid Mississippi and lower Missouri Valleys.

NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis, in the late
afternoon from Minneapolis south-southwestward to far northern Iowa,
have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. O-6 km shear
along this corridor is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range,
with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This environment will
likely support supercells with isolated large hail. A wind-damage
threat is also expected with supercells, and with organized
multicells, especially with the faster-moving short line segments.
The severe threat is expected to continue through much of the
evening, as a large cluster or MCS moves eastward toward the western
Great Lakes.

...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, where a moist and unstable airmass
will be in place. As surface temperature warm on Tuesday, MLCAPE is
forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer
shear is expected to remain relatively weak, low-level lapse rates
are forecast to become steep during the mid to late afternoon. This
could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger
multicells near peak heating. Hail could also occur with the more
intense cells.

..Broyles.. 09/04/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 201728
SWODY2
SPC AC 201727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts and hail are possible
across parts of southern Oklahoma into north Texas Thursday
afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also are possible
across parts of the central Plains and the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant trough will slowly pivot across the
Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West on Thursday. Ahead of this
feature, diffluent upper flow will overspread much of the
central/southern Plains vicinity. Several shortwave impulses are
forecast to migrate across the Rockies and into the Plains, focusing
potential for several areas of strong to severe thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Oklahoma into North Texas Vicinity...

Morning clouds and possibly showers over parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles into western/central OK will result limit destabilization
for much of the period. However, strong heating to the south/east of
this bubble of inhibition will result in a strong differential
heating gradient across southern OK. Mid/upper 60s dewpoints and
modest midlevel lapse rates will aid in moderate destabilization,
with forecast MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will not
be particularly strong through about 600 mb, before rapidly
increasing through the top of the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless,
this will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt and
organized cells/clusters are expected. Fairly long, straight
hodographs suggest hail will be possible, though storm mode may
preclude a more widespread large hail risk. Steep low-level lapse
rates aided by temperatures warming into the low 90s, with a mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb suggest isolated severe gusts are
possible, and a small Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been
introduced.

...Central Plains Vicinity...

Weak surface low development is forecast near the SD/WY border
Thursday afternoon. A surface trough will extend southward into
eastern CO/western KS. East of the surface trough, southeasterly
low-level flow will transport low 60s dewpoints across portions of
KS/NE and SD. This will support a band of moderate instability with
MLCAPE values approaching 2000-2500 J/kg from south-central SD into western/central NE and portions of KS. Deep-layer flow is forecast
to be somewhat modest, especially above around 700 mb. However,
25-35 kt 850-700 mb flow, and vertically veering wind profiles will
result in enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. This should support
a few organized cells/clusters with some risk for hail and strong
gusts. Some guidance continues to indicate capping in the 850-700
mb, which could limit coverage and/or longevity of any
better-organized convection. An outlook upgrade may be needed in
subsequent outlooks, but confidence remains too low at this time to
include a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk.

...Southern High Plains...

East/southeast low-level flow to the east of the surface trough will
maintain generally upper 40s to upper 50s surface dewpoints across
eastern NM. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating
will support a corridor of modest destabilization (MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg) by afternoon. Vertically veering wind profiles with
strong speed shear above 700 mb will support effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt with elongated/straight hodographs
evident in forecast soundings. A few high-based cells are expected
during the late afternoon/early evening. Any cells moving through
the corridor of greater instability will pose a risk for hail given
forecast shear and steep midlevel lapse rates. Steep low-level lapse
rates and a deeply mixed boundary layer also will support a few
strong gusts. Overall coverage is expected to remain limited,
precluding higher severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 09/20/2023

$$

---
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ACUS02 KWNS 010527
SWODY2
SPC AC 010526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible Monday over parts of the
High Plains, from eastern New Mexico northward across the Black
Hills. Hail and damaging gusts will be the primary risks.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a highly amplified upper trough will move east from the
Great Basin across the Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft
spreading into the Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist
across the MS Valley, with height rises continuing across the Great
Lakes and Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will result in stable conditions over
much of the East, as low pressure begins to develop from the central
High Plains during the afternoon into the northern Plains overnight.
Southerly low-level will maintain primarily 50s F dewpoints over
much of the region, with more robust moisture from the lower Rio
Grande Valley to the TX coast.

...Southern High Plains...
Storms are expected to form by midday across central and eastern NM
where easterly flow will support moisture advection and
destabilization. MUCAPE over 1500 J/kg, 50 kt effective shear and
effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 will favor a few supercells along
with an eventual merging of outflow/linear bowing structures capable
of large hail then damaging winds. A brief tornado may also occur
during the late afternoon/early evening prior to expected outflow
domination. The meridional flow regime aloft will likely lead to a
rather slow eastward progression of these storms, moving into TX
after 00Z.

...Northern Plains...
Strong heating will occur over much of WY and CO, and south of a
stalled front extending roughly from central SD into eastern
WY/western NE near the surface low. Steepening lapse rates will lead
to an uncapped air mass from northeast CO into SD, with elevated
instability developing from western SD into ND. Low-level
convergence may be sufficient for isolated severe storms late in the
day, with increasing precipitation chances overnight as height falls
increase and a low-level jet around 40-50 kt focuses lift. A few
storms may produce damaging gusts, along with sporadic hail with the
cellular activity.

..Jewell.. 10/01/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020600
SWODY2
SPC AC 020558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are most likely on Tuesday from western
Texas into parts of Nebraska.

...Central and Southern Plains...
Upper pattern early Tuesday morning will likely feature
western/central CONUS troughing and eastern CONUS ridging. A
shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing is
forecast to progress northeastward through the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest during the period. Enhanced mid-level flow accompanying this wave will spread eastward as well, with the
strongest flow concentrated across the central Plains during the
late afternoon/early evening.

Surface pattern early Tuesday morning should feature a low over
central ND, with a cold front extending from this low
south-southwestward into the southern High Plains. Primary low over
ND is forecast to progress northeastward into far northwestern
Ontario throughout the day, with the attendant cold front moving
eastward across the northern and central Plains. Only modest
eastward progression is anticipated across the southern Plains. By
00Z, guidance suggests this cold front will extend southwestward
from the low near the southern Saskatchewan/Ontario border to
another weak frontal low over the eastern ND/SD, continuing
southward to another low in central KS. A dryline will extend from
the central KS low back southwestward into the southeast NM/TX
Permian Basin vicinity.

Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing along
the length of the front early Tuesday morning, with at least some
potential for these showers and thunderstorms to persist into the
early afternoon across the warm sector over the central Plains. Even
so, the airmass is still forecast to destabilize ahead of the cold
front and dryline across the central and southern Plains, fostered
by a relatively narrow corridor of low to mid 60s dewpoints and cold
mid-level temperatures. Initial development along the front is
anticipated along and just ahead across the central Plains, where
long hodographs and cold mid-level temperatures will support the
potential for some very large hail. A short-lived, supercell mode
will transition to a more linear mode as strong forcing for ascent
persists over the region, with damaging gusts and isolated hail
remaining possible. Given the modest low-level moisture and
southerly low-level winds, some tornado potential exists. However,
this threat should be limited by the quick transition to linear mode
and slightly backed and weaker mid-level flow.

Late afternoon/early evening storm development appears probable
farther south along the dryline, although with lower overall
coverage than areas farther north. Vertical shear will decrease with
southern extent, with supercells most likely from the eastern TX
Panhandle into western OK. Large hail and damaging gusts are the
primary severe risks. However, there should be a narrow corridor of
low tornado potential from the TX Panhandle/western OK border
vicinity southward into southwest TX, where favorable low-level
moisture and moderate southerly surface winds will overlap.

..Mosier.. 10/02/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030602
SWODY2
SPC AC 030600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST
AND NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern Plains, with the greatest
threat currently expected from northwest Texas into southwest
Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level longwave trough moving across the
central CONUS will take on more of a positive tilt on Wednesday, as
a shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the upper
Great Lakes into Ontario, while the southern portion of the longwave
trough moves through the southern Plains. A cold front will move
through parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains.

...Southwest TX into north TX/southern OK...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing somewhere across
central/eastern OK Wednesday morning, within a modest low-level
warm-advection regime. The remnant outflow boundary from this
early-day convection will likely determine the northern extent of
the effective warm sector Wednesday afternoon. Along and south of
this boundary, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich
low-level moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
destabilization. Reduction of MLCINH via diurnal heating and
large-scale ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late
afternoon from parts of west/northwest TX into southwest OK.

While flow within the lowest 5-6 km will be relatively modest,
sufficient low-level veering and notably stronger flow above 6 km
will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for initial
supercell development with an attendant threat of large hail,
possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter. As storm coverage
increases with time, some clustering and upscale growth will be
possible, which may result in an increasing severe-wind threat into
Wednesday evening, before storm intensity and organization begins to
wane by early Thursday morning.

A Slight Risk has been added from northern parts of the Permian
Basin into northwest TX and southwest OK, where confidence is
currently greatest regarding intense storm development during the
afternoon. Some future adjustments may be needed, depending on
trends regarding boundary position and placement of the effective
warm sector.

...Mid/upper TX Coast into east-central TX...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is expected on Wednesday from near
the mid/upper TX coast into east-central TX, within a subtly forced
but very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow may be sufficient
to support some modest storm organization, though with very weak
midlevel lapse rates, severe potential with this afternoon
convection appears relatively limited at this time.

..Dean.. 10/03/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110601
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday
across parts of the central Plains, where large hail should be the
main threat, but severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur.
The threat for a few tornadoes should continue through at least
Thursday morning across portions of north/central Florida.

...Central Plains...
An upper trough/low will eject from the central Rockies across the
central Plains on Thursday, with a 60-80 kt southwesterly mid level
jet overspreading KS/NE and western MO/IA through Thursday evening.
A surface low initially near the KS/NE border should develop slowly
eastward through the day, with a dryline extending southward from
the low into KS/OK. Strong ascent attendant to the upper trough will
eventually encourage convective initiation near the surface triple
point, and perhaps down the length of the dryline into KS, by late
Thursday afternoon and early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and cooling temperatures aloft should aid in the development of at
least weak instability amid strong deep-layer shear (around 40-60
kt).

Supercells capable of producing large hail should be the main threat
with initial development. Some wind threat may also exist in the
narrow instability corridor through Thursday evening as a low-level
jet strengthens. Given the limited low-level moisture and potential
for a well-mixed boundary layer with diurnal heating, the tornado
threat is more uncertain. But, some chance for a tornado or two
should exist through Thursday evening as 0-1 km SRH quickly
increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. The tornado
threat may be focused near and northeast of the surface low along
the warm front, where low-level flow will be locally backed to a
more easterly component, enhancing low-level shear. Based on latest
guidance consensus regarding the placement of the surface low and
warm front, severe probabilities have been expanded
west/northwestward to include more of central/eastern NE.

...Florida...
A mid-level perturbation is forecast to move quickly off the
Southeast Atlantic Coast Thursday morning. In its wake, strong
low/mid-level winds across FL should tend to veer to a more unidirectional/west-southwesterly component by early Thursday
afternoon. Still, enhanced low-level and deep-layer shear will
probably persist through Thursday morning across parts of
north/central FL along and south of a front. This shear, along with
weak to moderate instability, should support some updraft
organization and a continued threat for occasional strong/damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes with the more robust convection.
Have added a Slight Risk (continuation from Day 1/Wednesday) where
the best low-level shear and related tornado threat is forecast
Thursday morning.

..Gleason.. 10/11/2023

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