ACUS02 KWNS 141725
SWODY2
SPC AC 141723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, a few producing damaging gusts, are possible from
the Lower Great Lakes across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
toward the southern Appalachians. Isolated hail is also possible
late over the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will remain over the Manitoba/Ontario area with a
broad area of cyclonic flow aloft over the northern Plains, Great
Lakes and Northeast. The southern periphery of the stronger flow
aloft will sweep east across the OH and TN Valleys during the day,
with a wave ejecting northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic
overnight. Winds around 850 mb will increase out of the south late
in the day and overnight ahead of the upper wave, enhancing
warm/moist advection and lift.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from OH into TN by
late afternoon, with dewpoints near 70 F. A warm front will also
lift northward overnight across PA and NY, aided by the stronger
flow off the surface. A surface low will develop over OH, and will
deepen a bit overnight into western NY.

...Lower Great Lakes southward into northern AL/GA/SC...
A morning MCS may affects parts of southern MO, western TN and KY
Saturday morning, and may provide a further focus for redevelopment
during the day and during the evening across TN, northern AL and GA. Predictability is low for this scenario but ample moisture and
instability will be present to support a conditional wind threat in
this corridor, possibly extending into the western Carolinas
overnight.

During the day, areas of rain and storms will exist in association
with the upper trough and cold front, moving across IN, OH, KY, with
stronger activity possible during the diurnal cycle over OH and
eastern KY. Locally strong gusts or marginal hail will be possible
but neither CAPE nor shear will be very strong. During the evening,
low-level shear will increase as the low deepens and winds just off
the surface increase to over 30 kt. This will increase SRH, but at a
time when low-level instability will be minimized. Still, rising
dewpoints may yield SBCAPE sufficient for a few ongoing cells to
acquire rotation, with either enhanced wind gust potential or a
brief/weak tornado.

...Southeast CO...eastern NM...western TX Panhandle...
Low-level moisture will surge northwestward during the evening and
overnight from the TX Panhandle into NM and southeast CO, where a
steep lapse rate environment will remain. A few elevated cells
capable of large hail are forecast mainly after 03Z, moving
southeastward out of CO/NM and into the TX Panhandle through Sunday
morning.

..Jewell.. 07/14/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible on Sunday from parts of the central Plains into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move through the Upper Midwest on Sunday,
as mid-level flow remains northwesterly across the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
central Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are expected to
be mostly from the mid 50s to lower 60s F. This will contribute to destabilization during the day across much of southeast Nebraska and
Kansas, where a pocket of moderate instability may develop. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to form near and to the south of the
front. A cluster or two could persist from late afternoon into the
evening.

NAM forecast soundings along the instability axis in south-central
Nebraska at 00Z/Monday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6
km shear around 45 knots. Storms that can develop along and near the
front could have a severe threat, with a potential for hail and
strong gusty winds. However, there are a few limiting factors that
could marginalize any severe threat. First, a cap is forecast during
the afternoon near 850 mb across parts of the warm sector. Second,
700-500 mb lapse rates are only forecast to be in the 6 to 6.5 C/km
range in most areas. Third, a pocket of dry air at low-levels is
forecast to the south of the front. For these reasons, the
probability for a more substantial severe threat appears low, and
will not introduce a slight risk at this time.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
northeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward through the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be present with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. As destabilization occurs during the day
across this moist airmass, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form and move east-northeastward across the region. Although
moderate deep-layer shear is forecast within this airmass,
instability is expected to remain weak in most areas. Thunderstorms
that can develop in areas that heat up the most could have a
marginal wind-damage threat with hail also possible.

..Broyles.. 07/15/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 211732
SWODY2
SPC AC 211730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST...AND
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible on
Saturday across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest,
Southeast, and Arizona.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain centered over much of the western CONUS
Saturday, while broad upper troughing encompasses the central and
eastern states. Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow
should be present between these two features. Greater low-level
moisture should remain confined to parts of the Southeast along and
south of a convectively reinforced front. But, sufficient moisture
across the central Plains and Upper Midwest should be in place to
support at least isolated robust convection.

...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...
Around 30-40 kt of northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over
much of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. While
low-level moisture may remain fairly shallow/limited by late July
standards, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating
should promote the development of weak to moderate instability by
late Saturday afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous, but
isolated to scattered convection may still develop along and
southeast of a weak surface trough. With 25-40 kt of deep-layer
shear forecast, a widely spaced mix of multicells and supercells may
develop and spread southeastward through Saturday evening while
posing an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
Based on latest guidance, have expanded the Marginal Risk to
encompass more of the central Plains and Upper Midwest.

...Southeast...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning
across parts of MS/AL into GA and perhaps SC. The convectively
reinforced outflow/front and a separate sea breeze will likely be
foci for renewed convective development by Saturday afternoon. A
belt of modest westerly mid-level winds at the base of the
large-scale upper trough will exist across much of the Southeast.
Plentiful low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in
the 70s, and ample diurnal heating will likely foster moderate to
strong instability by early Saturday afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms should develop in this environment along and
south of the front. Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with
the more robust convection given the very moist profiles, and some
clustering may occur. Isolated hail also appears possible with the
strongest cores. At this point, not enough confidence exists to
include greater severe wind probabilities. But, have expanded the
Marginal Risk to include more of the Gulf Coast into north FL.

...Arizona...
An upper-level anticyclone will remain centered near the Four
Corners region Saturday. It appears that modest (15-20 kt)
east-northeasterly mid-level winds will be present across parts of
southern AZ and vicinity. As thunderstorms develop over the higher
terrain, there may be enough low/mid-level flow to push this
convection westward into the lower terrain of southern/central AZ.
Very steep low/mid-level lapse rates with a well-mixed boundary
layer and ample DCAPE should support some threat for severe winds if
this occurs. With a better signal of this potential in recent
high-resolution guidance, have added a Marginal Risk for
severe/damaging winds.

..Gleason.. 07/21/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220545
SWODY2
SPC AC 220544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts are possible mainly Sunday evening over
portions of Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over the Four Corners with
a large-scale trough over the East. A belt of moderate flow will
extend from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and
into the Dakotas/mid MO Valley. In the low levels, a weakened
frontal zone will be draped over the coastal plain of the Gulf
Coast.

...Sonoran Desert...
Intense heating of the lower deserts and adjacent terrain of
southeast AZ and the Mogollon Rim will yield very steep lapse rates
by mid-late afternoon. Appreciable moisture (PW 1.25 to 1.4 inches)
and terrain-based circulations will likely result in at least
isolated to scattered storms developing by late afternoon over the
Mogollon Rim and the mountains of southeast AZ. Around 20 kt
easterly flow in the mid levels will aid in storm motions
propagating to the west into the lower deserts by early evening.
Very dry sub-cloud layers will potentially result in evaporatively
cooled, severe-caliber microbursts. This activity will slowly
diminish into the late evening.

Elsewhere, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to
develop near the sea-breeze front and decaying synoptic front along
the Gulf Coast and northeast into the Carolinas. Rich moisture
(high PW) through the column will result in relatively weak lapse
rates but moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. A few stronger gusts
cannot be ruled out but some uncertainty remains where the more
active clusters will develop---precluding low severe probabilities.
A couple of storms may develop over ND in a conditional environment
supporting vigorous storms. Isolated to scattered diurnal storms
are possible over the northern Rockies on the northern periphery of
the mid-level ridge over the West. Steep lapse rates and dry
sub-cloud layers could yield localized strong gusts.

..Smith.. 07/22/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230557
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday in the mid to
upper Mississippi River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level anticyclone will be centered over NM on Monday while a
broad, weak trough resides over the East. A potent mid-level
shortwave trough will move east into the Pacific Northwest and
southern British Columbia. Monsoonal thunderstorms will develop
across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. Some of the
thunderstorms over the Interior West will pose a risk for gusty
winds from the Mojave Desert northward into the Great Basin and into
MT.

...Southern half of MN into IA and adjacent portions of WI/IL/MO...
A northwest-flow regime is forecast for the mid to upper MS River
Valley on Monday. Some models indicate a few showers/thunderstorms
may be ongoing Monday morning over the Upper Midwest and perhaps in
a separate area farther south near the NE/IA border. A weak
mid-level disturbance is currently progged to move from southern MN
into the mid MS Valley by early evening. It remains unclear whether
this feature will be an impetus for a few storms developing during
the day on the northeastern periphery of warmer 700-mb temperatures
(10-12 deg C) and a strong capping inversion. Vertically veering
and strengthening flow with height supports storm organization if
storms develop and are sustained.

..Smith.. 07/23/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290541
SWODY2
SPC AC 290539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from the Missouri
Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley, as well as over the northern and
central High Plains.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper ridge will be centered over the High Plains
vicinity on Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will encompass
portions of the eastern U.S. A band of weak to moderate mid/upper
northwesterly flow between these two features will extend from the northern/central Plains toward the TN Valley vicinity. A weak
surface front draped from the Mid-MO Valley region toward Middle TN
during the afternoon will drift southward through the period.
Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend southward across the
northern/central High Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow to the
east of the surface trough will support a moistening boundary layer. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the High
Plains surface trough, and the Mid-South/Southern States front.

...Northern/Central Plains vicinity...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
by late afternoon near higher terrain within the vicinity of a
surface trough. East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a
plume of 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints, aiding in weak to moderate destabilization. While this low-level warm advection and modest
ascent associated with weak vorticity maxima rotating through the
upper ridge provide support for thunderstorm development, capping
may limit coverage/longevity of stronger organized updrafts. Any
sustained convection will pose a risk for hail, as vertically
veering wind profiles lead to elongated hodographs amid steep
midlevel lapse rates. Sporadic strong to severe gusts also will be
possible. If sufficient clustering occurs, some guidance suggests a
forward propagating cluster could develop and shift southeast across
parts of eastern WY/southwest SD/western NE during the evening. If
this occurs, some greater potential for damaging gusts may develop,
though confidence in this scenario is currently low.

...Ozarks to Mid-South vicinity...

A good amount of uncertainty continues regarding severe potential on
Sunday. Forecast guidance is quite varied in the location of the
surface front, whether or not convection will be ongoing Sunday
morning, and how far south and east severe potential may develop. As
a result, only minor modifications have been made to the Marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) from the prior Day 3 outlook. Depending on model
trends, and convective trends in the Day 1/Saturday time frame, this
area may need to be adjusted and/or removed in subsequent outlooks.


While uncertainty is high, a seasonally moist and unstable airmass
will reside over the region. If storms develop near the surface
front, at least modest deep-layer northwesterly flow will support
strong thunderstorm clusters. Adequate instability and steep
low-level lapse rates will foster locally damaging gust potential
with any better organized/propagating clusters that develop.

..Leitman.. 07/29/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300552
SWODY2
SPC AC 300551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
GEORGIA AND CAROLINAS COASTAL VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and strong gusts are possible on Monday across the northern High
Plains. Additional storms producing strong gusts are expected across
southern Arizona, and across portions of the Georgia and Carolinas
coastal vicinity.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will remain oriented near the Atlantic coast on
Monday. Meanwhile, an upper anticyclone will be centered over the
southern Plains, with ridging extending into the northern High
Plains. Moderate northwesterly mid/upper flow will extend from the
northern Plains toward the TN Valley. Surface high pressure will
persist over the Midwest with a surface boundary forecast near the
central Gulf Coast and extending northeast through southeast GA into
the eastern Carolinas and southeast VA. Meanwhile a surface trough
will extend southward through the northern into the central High
Plains from eastern MT to eastern CO. South/southeasterly low-level
flow to the east of this surface trough will maintain a seasonally
moist and unstable airmass. Quite a bit of uncertainty regarding
severe potential exists within this overall pattern. This is typical
for the time of year, as large-scale ascent will remain somewhat
modest and severe potential tied to mesoscale features/boundaries
that will be influenced by prior day's convection. This may result
in some larger-than-typical changes to severe probabilities/areas in
subsequent outlooks.

...GA into the Carolinas...

A very moist and unstable airmass will reside near a surface
boundary during the afternoon. Diurnal thunderstorm activity may
pose some risk for locally damaging gusts, given steep low-level
lapse rates and PW values near 2 inches. Forecast soundings indicate
marginal vertical shear (around 20 kt effective-shear magnitudes),
but clustering may increase damaging-gust potential via storm interactions/consolidating outflows before activity diminishes
during the early evening.

...Northern High Plains...

Forecast guidance indicates a vorticity maximum rotating through the
upper ridge from the Four Corners vicinity toward eastern WY. The
timing of this feature varies, but this should provide focus for
organized thunderstorm development amid moist, southeasterly
low-level upslope flow along the surface trough. Widely scattered
convection offering hail and strong gust potential is expected
during the evening.

...Southern AZ...

Monsoonal moisture will remain in place across southern AZ on
Monday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
near higher terrain, while mid/upper easterly flow will support
clusters developing westward across the lower desert. Strong gusts
will accompany this activity during the late afternoon into the
evening.

...Mid-MO/MS Valley vicinity...

Model guidance varies greatly with regards to potential morning
convection continuing from the Day 1/Sunday period. This will
influence severe potential during the afternoon/evening within a
moist/unstable and moderately sheared environment. Severe
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence
increases in evolution/timing of potential thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 07/30/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010531
SWODY2
SPC AC 010530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging gusts and hail are possible across the Upper Great Lakes
region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

Moderate mid/upper level northwesterly flow regime will continue
across the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley vicinity on Wednesday. A
midlevel shortwave trough will develop east/southeast from Manitoba
through Ontario, while a convectively enhanced low/MCV moves across
the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a cold
front will track south/southeast across MN/WI/MI from late afternoon
into the overnight hours.

...Upper Great Lakes...

Some early day showers/thunderstorms are possible across northern
MN, causing some forecast uncertainty. However, much of the region
from central MN into WI and the Upper Peninsula will see surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F. This will aid in a band of
moderate instability ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front
during the afternoon/evening. Bulk shear around 30-40 kt will
support organized cells. Forecast soundings show modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around
1-2 km. This suggests isolated hail potential with strongest storms.
Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates will
foster isolated strong/damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding
convective coverage and cold front timing will preclude higher
severe probabilities at this time.

...Mid-MS Valley vicinity...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning
from southern IA through much of eastern MO. This activity is not
expected to be severe and should diminish through the day.
Additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon will depend
on how quickly morning activity and cloud cover clears out. If
convection/cloud cover lingers, thunderstorm potential will be
limited. Isolated thunderstorms could develop along residual outflow/differential heating zone by early evening as a low-level
jet and warm advection increases. However, severe potential is too
uncertain to include probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 08/01/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160634
SWODY2
SPC AC 160633

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Lower
Michigan and the Ohio Valley on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to extend from central Ontario south-southwestward through WI early Thursday morning. This
shortwave, and accompanying strong mid-level flow, are forecast to
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
throughout the day, continuing into the Lower Great Lakes and
northern Mid-Atlantic by early Friday morning. Cold front associated
with this shortwave will push eastward just ahead of the wave,
ending the period arcing from eastern NY across eastern PA and back
into the TN Valley. Thunderstorms are expected along this front as
it moves eastward. Afternoon thunderstorms are also possible within
the moist airmass from coastal Carolinas into FL.

Farther west, expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the
southern High Plains through the Four Corners and into the northern Intermountain West, is expected to drift eastward towards the Plains
while dampening. Afternoon thunderstorms are likely beneath this
ridge, predominantly over the higher terrain from northern CA across
the Great Basin and into the central/southern Rockies.

...Lower MI into the OH Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front as it
progresses eastward across the Upper Great Lakes early Thursday
morning. Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are expected to be in place
ahead of the front across Lower MI. Abundant cloud cover across the
region will limit pre-frontal heating, but moist profiles will still
have modest buoyancy. This modest buoyancy will temper overall storm
strength, but strong low to mid-level flow could still support
damaging gusts.

Airmass destabilization is possible in the wake of this initial
front amid low 70s temperatures, mid/upper 60s dewpoints, and cold
mid-level temperatures (i.e. -12 to -14 deg C at 500 mb). Isolated thunderstorms are possible within this destabilized airmass,
initiated by persistent large-scale forcing for ascent associated
with the shortwave trough. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are
possible within the strongest storms.

...Northern CA and NV...
Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across northern CA
and NV, ahead of a subtle shortwave trough emanating from the upper
low over the central CA coast. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced
mid/upper level flow will extend across the region and a few strong
to severe storms could develop within this regime. However, any
strong to severe storm would be relatively short lived, mitigating
the overall severe potential.

..Mosier.. 08/16/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170602
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with a risk for mainly damaging gusts
will be possible across portions of New England on Friday.

...Northeast U.S...
An upper-level trough will close off into an upper low over the
northeast U.S./Ontario Province on Friday as a surface cold front
moves east in tandem with the upper trough. A seasonably warm/moist
air mass will exist in advance of the cold front with surface dew
points generally in the low/mid 60s. Mid-level southerly flow of
50-60 kts combined with low-level southerlies will result in
effective shear of 45-55 kts during the afternoon.

Showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop, or diurnally increase
in intensity, while moving northeast during the day as large-scale
ascent develops over the region. MLCAPE, modulated somewhat by cloud
cover, will generally range between 1000 and 1500 J/kg. This should
prove sufficient for isolated stronger storms, including supercell
structures and line segments, capable primarily of locally damaging
gusts and perhaps hail.

...Central/northern Plains...
North of a strengthening upper-level anticyclone over the southern
Plains, a pronounced shortwave trough will be located over the
southwestern portions of Canada. In response, surface low pressure
should develop over SD in the vicinity of a surface trough, with
strong instability expected to develop by afternoon east of the
trough. Very warm mid-level temperatures associated with a
pronounced EML are expected to effectively suppress surface-based
thunderstorm development in this area.

...Southern Arizona...
An embedded disturbance within southeasterly mid-level flow on the
periphery of the expanding upper-level high may contribute to
locally greater thunderstorm coverage Friday, along with some risk
of strong gusts. Have opted not to introduce severe probabilities
with this outlook given low confidence on spatial coverage, but this
may be necessary with future outlooks.

..Bunting.. 08/17/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190452
SWODY2
SPC AC 190450

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the weakening tropical
cyclone Hilary may become capable of producing a few severe wind
gust and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the lower Colorado
Valley into the Mohave Desert Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A prominent mid-level ridge will continue to encompass much of the
U.S. from the Rockies into the middle and south Atlantic Seaboard
through this period, with the center of highest heights building
further across the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley
vicinity. As mid-level troughing digs toward the Pacific Northwest,
broad downstream short wave ridging may also build north of the
international border through much of the southern interior Canadian
provinces. Within weak mid-level troughing extending southward
along the Pacific coast, to the south of the split stronger
westerlies, a weak mid-level low is forecast to linger to the
southwest of San Francisco Bay. Within a broadly confluent,
southerly regime to its east, the weakening tropical cyclone Hilary
may become increasingly sheared while accelerating north of the
Southwestern international border late Sunday through Sunday night.

...Southwest...
To the north and northeast of Hilary, it still appears that 50-70 kt
flow in the 850-700 mb layer will spread northward across the lower
Colorado Valley into Mohave Desert Sunday afternoon and evening.
Near and just west of the Colorado River, forecast soundings
indicate saturating boundary-layer profiles with lower and perhaps
mid 70s F surface dew points, coincident with enlarging
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. If this occurs, it appears
that the environment could become conducive to the evolution of a
few supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes. Otherwise, particularly in surrounding portions of the Southwest, where
warmer/drier mixed boundary-layers may evolve, downward mixing of
the higher momentum air in scattered stronger convection may
contribute to a few severe surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/19/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210438
SWODY2
SPC AC 210437

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF WESTERN UTAH...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
A tropical disturbance emerging from the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday may
be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and at
least some potential for a tornado or two across parts of Deep South
Texas. Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe
weather are also possible near the western slopes of the Wasatch
Mountains Tuesday afternoon, and across parts of the upper Great
Lakes region Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that a prominent warm-core ridge,
centered at mid-levels across the lower Missouri Valley, will
generally be maintained through this period. However, there may be
some suppression of mid-level heights, particularly on the
northwestern periphery of the ridge across the northern Rockies, as
several perturbations progress through a broadly confluent regime
downstream of mid-level troughing and an embedded low slowly
progressing inland across the Pacific Northwest. Within the
easterlies to the south of the ridge, one tropical perturbation
appears likely to continue migrating inland of the lower Texas coast
through the Rio Grande Valley, near and south of the Texas Big Bend.
A broader upstream wave may slowly shift west-northwestward across
the Caribbean/Bahamas/south Florida vicinity.

Strongest destabilization Tuesday, including the development of
large mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating of seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content, appears likely to once again be
focused across parts of the Ozark Plateau and middle Mississippi
Valley into portions of the Upper Midwest. However, it still
appears that sustained deep convective development within this
environment will be suppressed by large-scale subsidence and
inhibition associated with warm and dry mid-levels.

...Deep South Texas...
There remains considerable spread among the model output concerning
the strength of the tropical perturbation, or perhaps developing
tropical cyclone, likely to emerge from the Gulf of Mexico.
However, NAM forecast soundings in particular, continue to depict
enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, coincident with a
weakly destabilizing tropical boundary layer, as the perturbation
progresses inland Tuesday morning. This regime may become conducive
to the development of a few low-topped supercell structures, with
embedded mesocyclones posing a risk for producing tornadoes.

...Great Basin...
As one short wave impulse accelerates inland across the Sierra
Nevada into the Great Basin, models indicate a belt of strengthening
southerly mid-level flow (including 50+ kts around 500 mb) near/west
of the Wasatch. Based on forecast soundings, this may contribute to
supercell wind profiles during the day Tuesday, within a relatively
moist environment. Due to generally weak lapse rates, CAPE may
remain rather weak, and the extent of the severe weather potential
remains uncertain. However, convection capable of produce strong
surface gusts seems possible, and a tornado may not be out of the
question.

...Upper Great Lakes...
A slow moving warm frontal zone may once again become a focus for
strong thunderstorm development Tuesday night, aided by a
nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Forecast
soundings suggest that sizable CAPE may develop above a fairly deep near-surface stable layer. This probably will minimize the risk for
convection capable of produce strong surface gusts, but the
convective-layer shear may be sufficient for a few storms posing a
risk for severe hail.

..Kerr.. 08/21/2023

$$
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* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 220441
SWODY2
SPC AC 220439

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are possible late
Wednesday into Wednesday night across Lower Michigan into the Lake
Erie and western Lake Ontario vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Warm-core ridging will remain rather prominent across much of the
nation east of the Rockies through this period, although it may
undergo at least some further suppression with the center of highest
mid-level heights shifting south of the lower Missouri Valley toward
the southern Great Plains. The more appreciable mid-level height
falls likely will be focused on the northern periphery of the ridge,
but downstream of a mid-level low migrating north of the
international border into the Canadian Prairies, it appears that
large-scale flow will remain broadly anticyclonic into the lee of
the lower Great Lakes region.

In association with digging large-scale mid-level troughing offshore
of the Atlantic Seaboard, a cold front may continue nosing southward
to the lee of the southern Appalachians. However, a stalling
segment of this front may return eastward through portions of the
lower Great Lakes region and upper Ohio Valley, while advancing
southward through the Upper Midwest in response to a weak migratory
frontal wave.

In advance of the frontal wave, seasonably moist boundary-layer air
is forecast to advect across the Upper Midwest through the lower
Great Lakes region. Beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume
of warm elevated mixed-layer air, and moderately strong
west-northwesterly mid-level flow, it appears that this will
contribute to large potential instability.

...Lower Great Lakes region...
In the wake of weakening early period warm advection driven
convection across parts of lower Michigan, the extent and potential
of any renewed thunderstorm development remains uncertain. While
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg may develop within
the warm sector of a weak surface low migrating across Lake Michigan
into Lower Michigan by early Wednesday evening, mid/upper forcing
for ascent to overcome inhibition associated with the warm/dry
layers aloft and support sustained thunderstorm development remains
unclear. Furthermore, while nocturnal strengthening of a 30-40 kt
westerly 850 mb jet may occur across central/southern Lower
Michigan, stronger warm advection along/east of the warm frontal
zone may become focused across southern Lake Huron into Ontario.

Still, isolated sustained boundary-layer based thunderstorm
development may not be out of the question by early Wednesday
evening, near/east of the surface low across interior lower
Michigan. If this occurs, the environment will be potentially
conducive to organized severe convection, including supercells
accompanied by the risk for a tornado or two, while propagating
southeastward into the overnight hours.

..Kerr.. 08/22/2023

$$
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* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 221725
SWODY2
SPC AC 221723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHERN MN...AND ALSO FOR LOWER MI...NORTHERN OH...WESTERN
PA/NY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible
Wednesday across Lower Michigan into the Lake Erie and western Lake
Ontario vicinity, and also from northeast North Dakota into northern
Minnesota.

...Lower Great Lakes region...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across
the lower Great Lakes region. Elevated convection will likely be
ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of lower MI, aided by a
moderate low-level jet and associated warm advection to the east of
a north-south oriented baroclinic zone. Moderate MUCAPE may support
an isolated hail threat before storms weaken by late morning.

The baroclinic zone will move eastward as a warm front Wednesday
afternoon, though its progress will be modulated by how quickly
morning convection abates across lower MI. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level environment will support strong destabilization
along/west of the warm front by late afternoon. Surface-based storm
development cannot be ruled out during the late afternoon into the
early evening across the warm sector as MLCINH diminishes.
Sufficient deep-layer shear would support a conditional supercell
risk with all severe hazards if surface-based development occurs,
but this remains a low-probability scenario with large-scale ascent
expected to generally weaken through the day as low-level warm
advection shifts eastward.

Another round of elevated convection associated with nocturnal
strengthening of the low-level jet is expected Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Initial development will tend to occur over
southern Ontario, perhaps extending into eastern lower MI, with
storms potentially evolving into a loosely organized MCS and
spreading into parts of northern OH and western PA/NY with time.
Moderate to strong elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg or
greater) will support some hail potential with stronger embedded
cells, while isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible if more
organized upscale growth occurs by early Thursday morning.

...Northern ND/MN...
A weakening midlevel shortwave trough (the remnant of a trough that
persisted for several days over the West) will move across parts of
the northern Plains on Wednesday, around the periphery of the upper
ridge. While richer low-level moisture will likely stay south of the
region, some modest moistening and destabilization will be possible
through the day into eastern ND and northern MN. While MLCINH will
likely prohibit diurnal surface-based storm development, ascent
attendant to the shortwave and continued moistening in the 850-700
mb layer may result in slightly elevated storm development during
the evening. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for
an elevated supercell or two, with an attendant threat of isolated
hail and localized strong/damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 08/22/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230457
SWODY2
SPC AC 230456

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA...PARTS OF WESTERN MARYLAND AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern portions of the Great Lakes
region into the upper Ohio Valley late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night, posing at least some risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Further suppression of the persistent interior U.S. ridging appears
likely to remain gradual, particularly at mid/upper levels, through
this period. A significant short wave impulse initially digging
within the primary belt of westerlies is forecast to turn east of
Hudson Bay through northern Quebec, while a more modest perturbation
emerging from the Pacific Northwest more slowly digs east-southeast
of the Canadian Prairies into the central Canadian/U.S. border
vicinity. Downstream of this latter feature, models indicate that
flow will remain broadly anticyclonic across the Upper Midwest into
the lee of the lower Great Lakes. In somewhat lower levels (850-700
mb layer), a wave on the leading edge of broad troughing is forecast
to dig east-southeast of the Upper Midwest through lower Great Lakes
and upper Ohio Valley vicinity by late Thursday night.

Meanwhile, a prominent mid-level height center likely will be
maintained across the southern Great Plains, with the remnants of
Harold migrating within weak southerly flow around its western
periphery, downstream of consolidating large-scale mid-level
troughing near and offshore of the Pacific coast.

...Southern Great Lakes into upper Ohio Valley...
It still appears that a notable cold front may surge south the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region late Thursday through Thursday night,
beneath lingering relatively warm air along the northeastern
periphery of the upper ridging and, increasingly, south of the
stronger westerlies. In advance of the front, areas of weakening
warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early Thursday to
the southeast and south of the lower Great Lakes region. However,
beneath a remnant plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, large
pre-frontal boundary-layer CAPE may develop upstream through the day
in response to strong surface heating of a very moist air
characterized 70F+ dew points. And this should tend to advect
eastward toward the Lake Erie and upper Ohio Valley vicinity into
Thursday evening, as westerly flow in the 850-700 mb layer
strengthens to 30-40 kt.

Although upper support for sustained thunderstorm development
remains unclear, it appears that there may be sufficient weakening
of inhibition to allow for the initiation of at least widely
scattered thunderstorm activity near/just ahead of the surface front
by late Thursday afternoon. Some of this may pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and strong downbursts into Thursday evening,
before perhaps tending to grow upscale, mainly across parts of
southeastern Lower Michigan and northeastern Indiana through
northern and eastern Ohio. It is possible that at least a loosely
organized cluster and cold pool could evolve and pose a risk for
potentially damaging wind gusts into western Pennsylvania and
northern West Virginia, before gradually weakening Thursday night.
Due to lingering model variability and uncertainties, severe
probabilities are being maintained at 5 percent, but higher severe
wind probabilities could still be introduced in later outlooks for
this time period.

..Kerr.. 08/23/2023

$$
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* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 240443
SWODY2
SPC AC 240441

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the Mid
Atlantic and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Missouri Valley and
central Great Plains Friday afternoon into Friday night,
accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that large-scale troughing at mid/upper levels will
begin to evolve across the Upper Midwest into the northern Atlantic
Seaboard during this period. However, the most substantive
amplification may not occur until Friday night east of the lower
Great Lakes region, in response to a short wave trough digging
southeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. This perturbation
likely will be preceded by a more modest impulse, which may be in
the process of turning eastward offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast
by early Friday.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent either
side of an axis extending from a high over the Texas Panhandle
vicinity into the Southeast. Broad amplified ridging is also likely
to persist north-northwest of the high, through the northern
Rockies, downstream of a broad evolving low, increasing cut off from
the westerlies, offshore of the Pacific coast. Around the periphery
of the high, the weakened remnants of Harold may slowly translate
across and east of the Colorado Rockies, while another easterly wave
passes to the south of the lower Texas coast.

In lower-levels, it still appears that notable low-level cooling and
drying will continue to advance south of the Canadian/U.S. border to
the east of the Rockies. While an initial cold front may reach the
Mid Atlantic region by early Friday, it now appears that it may not
advance into the lower Ohio River vicinity until Friday afternoon
and the lower Missouri River vicinity until late Friday evening.
Another surge of cooler may nose south of the Wyoming/Colorado
Rockies during the day Friday, with more notable cooling and drying overspreading the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region late
Friday through Friday night.

...Mid Atlantic/lower Ohio Valley into the central Great Plains...
Moderate to large mixed-layer CAPE likely will develop once again
along and south of the conglomerate leading edge of the low-level
cooling. It appears that this will largely be supported by strong
daytime heating beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates,
as profiles farther aloft remain warm with weak lapse rates. It is
now also appearing increasingly likely that this destabilization
will be confined to areas south of the favorably sheared mid-level
westerlies, with mid/upper support for convective development also
weak or uncertain, aside from the possible influence of the remnants
of Harold across parts of the central Great Plains. However, models
suggest that at least widely scattered thunderstorm development is
possible by late Friday afternoon into evening, in an environment
conducive to locally strong downbursts and perhaps modestly
organizing clusters with cold pools posing a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/24/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250555
SWODY2
SPC AC 250554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur Saturday across parts of
the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level anticyclone centered over the southern Plains should
retrograde slightly westward in tandem with a prominent upper ridge
on Saturday. Upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Northeast
is forecast to move only slowly eastward through the period. At the
surface, a weak front should extend southwestward from a low over
New England across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, and westward into the southern/central Plains. A very moist low-level airmass, with at
least low to mid 70s surface dewpoints, should exist in a fairly
narrow corridor along/south of this front across parts of the
Mid-South/TN Valley and into the Carolinas.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South into the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas...
Low-level convergence along the weak front should remain rather
modest, and better large-scale ascent associated with the upper
trough will likely stay displaced to the north of this region.
Still, daytime heating of the very moist low-level airmass will aid
in the development of moderate to perhaps very strong instability by
Saturday afternoon, along with steepened low-level lapse rates.
Ample DCAPE should also be present, which will aid in efficient
downdraft momentum with any thunderstorms that can develop along and
south of the front. Even though mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear is expected to remain quite weak, there may still
be some modest convective organization along/near the front as this
activity spreads slowly south-southeastward through early Saturday
evening. Given the very favorable thermodynamic environment,
occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust
cores. A Marginal Risk has been added across parts of the lower MS Valley/Mid-South into the TN Valley and Carolinas where the best
signal exists for scattered thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 08/25/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020557
SWODY2
SPC AC 020556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with hail and strong
gusty winds will be possible across parts of the Intermountain West
Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Intermountain West...
A relatively high-amplitude system will move eastward from the West
coast into the Intermountain West on Sunday. Ahead of the
upper-level trough, a south-to-north corridor of instability will
develop by afternoon across parts of eastern Nevada, western Utah
and southern Idaho. As surface temperatures warm during the
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will form within a zone of
large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. Although
MLCAPE is forecast to peak between 500 and 1000 J/kg in most areas,
mid-level lapse rates will be steep, peaking around 7.5 C/km during
the late afternoon. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear
will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. Hail will be
possible with the more intense cores, and isolated wind damage may
occur just ahead of or within the stronger downdrafts.

..Broyles.. 09/02/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030538
SWODY2
SPC AC 030536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND FAR NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with hail and isolated
damaging winds will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across
parts of the northern Plains.

...Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move from the Intermountain West into the
Rockies on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across
much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface low
rapidly deepens across central South Dakota. A zone of strong
large-scale ascent will move into the northern High Plains,
providing lift favorable for scattered thunderstorm development
during the mid to late afternoon. Additional storms are expected to
develop across parts of the Dakotas, along and near the front due to
surface heating and increasing low-level convergence. Surface
dewpoints near the front will likely be mostly in the 50s F. This
will likely contribute to the development of a pocket of moderate
instability from western South Dakota extending northeastward into
southeastern North Dakota. NAM forecast soundings from eastern
Wyoming into the central Dakotas suggest that MLCAPE will be peak in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range during the late afternoon. Forecast
soundings also have 0-6 km shear forecast in the 35 to 45 knot range
in most areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment should support an isolated severe threat during the late
afternoon and early evening. Rotating cells will have potential to
produce hail. The rotating storms, along with the more organized
multicells, may also have a wind-damage potential.

..Broyles.. 09/03/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050556
SWODY2
SPC AC 050554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Sep 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe winds will be
possible on Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley north-northeastward into parts of lower Michigan. A potential for
hail is also expected in parts of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley/Central Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. An associated cold front will
advance eastward into the southwestern Great Lakes and lower Ohio
Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are forecast to be in
the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The moist airmass will contribute to
the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form near and ahead of the
front during the mid afternoon. Several small convective clusters or
line segments will be possible as cell coverage increases during the
late afternoon and early evening.

Near the axis of strongest instability, NAM forecast soundings in
the late afternoon in far western Kentucky have MLCAPE peaking near
4000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. Flow above 500 mb is
forecast to be relatively weak. This will likely keep the primary
mode multicellular. As low-level lapse rates become steep in the mid
afternoon, the stronger multicells could be accompanied with
marginally severe winds. Hail could also occur, mainly in the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys where the strongest instability
is forecast.

Further north into the southern Great Lakes, moderate instability is
forecast to develop ahead the cold front by afternoon. As low-level
convergence increases along the front and near a surface low in
Lower Michigan, a few marginally severe gusts will be possible with
the stronger multicells. The isolated wind-damage threat will likely
be greatest along the leading edge of the faster-moving short line
segments.

..Broyles.. 09/05/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060549
SWODY2
SPC AC 060548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...ARK-LA-TEX...SABINE RIVER
VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts and
hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with a marginal severe threat may
develop in parts of the Great Plains, Ark-La-Tex, Sabine Valley, and
lower Mississippi Valley.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move
eastward into the central Great Lakes, middle Ohio Valley and
southern Appalachians on Thursday. Ahead of the front, a moist
airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints mostly in the 60s F.
As surface temperatures warm on Thursday, scattered thunderstorm
development is expected across much of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic region. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be
relatively weak, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the
afternoon in many areas. This could be favorable for marginally
severe gusts with multicells that form in areas with the strongest
surface heating.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing at the
start of the period in the Ark-La-Tex. This cluster is forecast to
move south-southeastward into the Sabine River and lower Mississippi
Valleys by afternoon. A marginal wind-damage threat will be possible
with the stronger embedded cores.

Further north-northwest, an axis of instability is forecast to set
up during the late afternoon and evening from the Ark-La-Tex to
central Oklahoma. A low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across
the southern Plains. On the nose of the low-level jet, elevated
convection is forecast to develop along the instability gradient
during the late evening, and persist into the overnight period from
eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. NAM forecast soundings along
the favored convective corridor at 06Z have MUCAPE near 2000 J/kg,
and effective shear near 40 knots. This should be favorable for an
isolated large-hail threat with the stronger elevated rotating
cells.

...Central and Northern Plains..
A minor shortwave is forecast to move into the central and northern
Plains on Thursday, as an axis of instability develops across
central Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible along and to the east of
the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening.
NAM forecast soundings in northeastern Nebraska at 00Z/Friday
suggest that MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. This,
combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates, may be enough for hail with the stronger cores. A few
marginally severe gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 09/06/2023

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 111717
SWODY2
SPC AC 111715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and a couple instances of
hail are possible across parts of southern Arizona Tuesday afternoon
into early evening.

...Southern Arizona...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate across the
southwestern U.S. on Tuesday. Modest westerly deep-layer flow is
forecast, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt evident in
most point forecast soundings across southern AZ. Meanwhile, surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F and modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates, will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Strong
heating will result in deep boundary-layer mixing and steepening of
low-level lapse rates within the sub-cloud layer. While CAMs
guidance varies in thunderstorm coverage, at least a couple of
organized cells appear possible across southwest/south-central AZ,
with an attendant risk for severe gusts. Midlevel lapse rates around
7-7.5 C/km and sufficient instability in the freezing layer suggest
a couple instances of near-1 inch hail also will be possible in
strongest cells.

...Upper Ohio and Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper trough oriented over the upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS
Valley Tuesday morning will pivot eastward toward the Appalachians
by Wednesday morning. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow, mainly
above 700 mb, will overspread portions of the upper OH Valley into
southern Ontario and Quebec in association with this trough. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from northwest OH to
central TX Tuesday morning, shifting south and east through the
period to become oriented from the Hudson Valley through the NC/VA
Piedmont and the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning.

Ahead of the cold front, generally low 60s F surface dewpoints will
be in place. Cloud cover and potentially areas of warm advection
showers are expected across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity. This will limit stronger heating, and coupled
with poor midlevel lapse rates, instability will be low (less than
500 J/kg MLCAPE for the most part through early evening). Somewhat
low-topped convection is expected to develop within strong forcing
near the cold front from eastern OH into western PA by late
afternoon. While effective shear magnitudes around 45 kt are
forecast, 850-700 mb flow will remain modest, around 15-25 kt. Most
of the stronger flow contributing to higher effective shear
magnitudes is forecast above 600 mb and closer to the top of the
cloud bearing layer. Given a lack of stronger flow in the lower
(below 700 mb) troposphere, severe potential appears low across the
Upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

Further south/east across the Chesapeake Bay/Mid-Atlantic vicinity,
stronger low-level moisture will be in place (mid 60s F dewpoints).
Stronger heating of this more moist airmass will result in somewhat
greater instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) compared to further
northwest. However, vertical shear will be somewhat less, and
large-scale ascent weaker as the region remains further removed from
the surface low over Ontario/Quebec and the core of the jet streak
moving through the upper trough. The cold front also will move into
the region after peak heating, during the evening. The poor
alignment of modest instability/weaker shear with an ill-timed
frontal passage should limit severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/11/2023

$$

---
* SLMR 2.1a * A distant ship, smoke on the horizon....
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 121729
SWODY2
SPC AC 121727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...COASTAL CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the
southern High Plains, southern New England, and the Carolinas on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
toward New England on Wednesday. Multiple vorticity maxima will be
embedded within the midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of this
trough. At the surface, a cold front will move across parts of the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic into the southern Appalachians, with a
weak frontal wave potentially moving from the Mid Atlantic into New
England through the day. Farther west, a broad upper-level trough
will remain in place across parts of the western/central CONUS, with
one notable shortwave trough expected to move eastward from the
southern Rockies into the southern Plains.

...Northern NJ/Southeast NY into southern New England...
A band of convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the
forecast period somewhere across southeast NY/northern NJ into
western parts of southern New England, aided by low-level warm
advection and midlevel vorticity maxima ejecting northeastward ahead
of the primary upper trough. Instability will generally remain weak,
but moderate deep-layer shear, favorable moisture, and some
enhancement of low-level shear/SRH within the warm-advection regime
may support transient rotating cells capable of locally damaging
gusts and/or a brief tornado. The primary threat may reside with the
initial cluster of convection as it moves eastward across southern
New England, though some redevelopment will be possible its wake,
depending on timing of early convection and extent of
destabilization in its wake.

...Coastal Carolina vicinity...
In advance of the large-scale trough to the north, one or more weak
midlevel vorticity maxima may move across parts of the Carolinas
Wednesday. These may aid in scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development within a warm, moist, and moderately unstable
environment during the afternoon. Modest westerly midlevel flow will
support effective shear of 25-30 kt, sufficient for some storm
organization, and a few semi-organized cells/clusters will be
possible. A Marginal Risk has been added for parts of near-coastal
SC and southern NC, where the best overlap of instability, shear,
and storm coverage is currently anticipated.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the southern Rockies into
the High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening, as a midlevel shortwave
trough traverses the region. Weak to moderate buoyancy and
sufficient deep-layer shear will support a few organized
cells/clusters capable of producing localized hail and severe gusts.

...Southeast AZ into southwest NM...
Scattered thunderstorm development will again be possible across
parts of southern AZ into southwest NM on Wednesday.
Moisture/instability may be somewhat weaker than D1/Tuesday, though
deep-layer shear will remain marginally sufficient for a few
semi-organized storms. Depending on the extent of D1 convection
across the region and its potential impact on D2 destabilization,
severe probabilities may eventually be needed.

..Dean.. 09/12/2023

$$

---
* SLMR 2.1a * You radiate cold shafts of broken glass!
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 161734
SWODY2
SPC AC 161732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening over parts of southeast Georgia and the Carolina Coastal
Plain.

A mid-level trough initially extending from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast area will advance
steadily toward the Appalachians through Monday morning. Elsewhere,
ridging aloft will prevail across much of the country.

At the surface, a weak/diffuse front will progress eastward across
the Appalachians, and then become a bit better-organized -- reaching
the East Coast overnight. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve
over southeastern Georgia during the day, and then move
northeastward along the Carolina Coast through the second half of
the period.

...Southeast...
Daytime heating/weak destabilization is forecast over parts of
Georgia and South Carolina Sunday, in the vicinity of the developing
frontal wave. This should support development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms, which would then spread northeastward in the
vicinity of the North Carolina coast later in the period.

With enhanced shear in the vicinity of the frontal wave, a few
stronger storms/storm clusters may evolve with time, accompanied by
risk for locally gusty winds. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly near or just off the Carolina coast through the second
half of the period.

..Goss.. 09/16/2023

$$

---
* SLMR 2.1a * A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man. -J.Springfield
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 191722
SWODY2
SPC AC 191721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OK AND FAR WESTERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
portions of eastern Oklahoma and far western Arkansas.

...Synopsis...
Heights are expected to rise across the southern High Plains and central/southern Plains on Wednesday, as the overall pattern across
the western and central CONUS begins to amplify. This amplification
will primarily result from the deepening/maturating of a shortwave
trough dropping across the Pacific Northwest towards the western
Great Basin, although some secondary influence will result from a
progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough moving from southern CA
across the Four Corners. Primary upper-level feature east of the
Rockies will be a convectively augmented vorticity maximum forecast
to centered over the Ozark Plateau early Wednesday morning. This
feature is then expected to gradually drift northeastward across
central MO throughout the day.

Dry and stable conditions are anticipated for most of the CONUS east
of the MS River, with the only exception being isolated
thunderstorms early Wednesday morning over the Upper MS Valley, and
near the aforementioned vorticity max as it moves across the Mid MS
Valley. Highest thunderstorms coverage is anticipated in the OK/AR
border vicinity, where some isolated severe is possible (discussed
below), and over the Florida peninsula, where weak shear and poor
lapse rates will limit severe potential.

...Eastern OK into Western AR...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern OK
tonight, continuing through Wednesday morning across eastern OK and
far western AR. General expectation is that most of the severe
potential associated with this cluster will occur before 12Z
Wednesday, with this cluster then gradually weakening as it shifts
eastward Wednesday morning.

Outflow associated with these storms will likely form an effective
warm front, extending from southeast OK into western central OK
during the morning. Some northward progression of this boundary is
possible throughout the day, although uncertainty exists regarding
how far north it progresses. This uncertainty is largely a result of
additional uncertainty regarding cloud cover across north-central
and northeast OK north of the of the outflow/effective warm front.
Given the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent, this boundary will
likely act as the impetus for isolated thunderstorm development
Wednesday afternoon/evening, with any open warm-sector development
unlikely. Higher storm coverage appears more likely in the evening,
as warm-air advection increases across the effective front. Shear is
strong enough to support a few organized storms and some isolated
hail appears possible. Additionally, there does appear to be just
enough mid-level drying to potentially support a strong gust or two,
even north of the boundary.

..Mosier.. 09/19/2023

$$
---
* SLMR 2.1a * "I am EVIL Homer! I am EVIL Homer!" - Homer
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 250546
SWODY2
SPC AC 250545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, as
well as from the Pecos Valley to Big Bend.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low will move southeastward across eastern Iowa on
Tuesday, as a front moves southward into central Missouri and
central Illinois. Near the front, surface dewpoints will likely be
near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of
moderate instability may develop across the Mississippi Valley. This
combined with large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level
low, will support scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be about 35
knots, with 500 mb temperatures near -14 C. This should be favorable
for a marginal hail threat with cells that develop to the southeast
of the upper-level system, where instability and shear are forecast
to be maximized. A few strong gusts will also be possible,
especially during the late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will
be steepest.

...Far West Texas/Eastern New Mexico...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
southern Rockies and southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface,
upslope flow will reinforce a southeast-to-northwest corridor of
maximized low-level moisture from southwest Texas to southeast New
Mexico. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate
instability may develop near the moist axis by afternoon. Despite
the lack of large-scale ascent, topographic forcing will result in
isolated to scattered convective initiation during the afternoon.
The instability, combined with 25 to 30 knot of 0-6 km shear, and
700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, should be favorable
for an isolated severe threat. Hail and marginally severe gusts will
be the primary hazards during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 09/25/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 280550
SWODY2
SPC AC 280548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms may produce hail or isolated severe gusts over
parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday.

...Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley...
With high pressure over much of the East, severe weather chances
will be focused over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, ahead
of an upper trough and where moisture will be of favorable
magnitude.

Aloft, a progressive lead wave is forecast to affect the Dakotas and
northern MN during the first half of the day, enhancing deep-layer
shear and aiding lift. An inverted surface trough will extend
northeastward out of KS and NE and into western MN during the day,
and this will also be near the axis of strongest heating.

Winds around 850 mb will increase out of the southwest at 30-40 kt
in association with the aforementioned midlevel wave, and this will
likely enhance warm advection north of the surface trough/wind shift
over the eastern Dakotas and western MN through midday. Elevated
thunderstorms are likely, some potentially producing marginally
severe hail due to cool temperatures aloft.

Later in the day as the surface trough heats, the air mass will
become unstable and uncapped. However, overall lift will not be very
strong in the wake of the early day disturbance. As such, and with
rising heights, rather disorganized and perhaps only isolated severe
storms are anticipated during the diurnal heating maximum, from near
the MO River into MN. Both hail and locally strong gusts will be
possible.

..Jewell.. 09/28/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 300509
SWODY2
SPC AC 300508

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms capable of hail or gusty winds may develop late
Sunday over the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An amplified pattern will exist on Sunday with an upper trough over
the Great Basin and a ridge from the MS Valley into the upper Great
Lakes. The western trough will make little eastward progress through
Monday morning, but gradually increasing southwesterlies aloft and
height falls will impact parts of the northern High Plains late.

Strong southwest winds and heating will result in steep lapse rates
and deep mixing layers from the Four Corners northeastward toward
the Black Hills, with deepening low pressure from eastern WY into
the western Dakotas. A cold front will push south across eastern MT,
western ND and northern WY during the late afternoon, while modest
moisture return occurs south of the wind shift.

...Northern High Plains...
Strong heating and 50s F dewpoints will likely yield MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg near the surface trough, with temperatures aloft will
not be particularly cool given the main trough will be far to the
west. Still, upslope flow into the higher terrain as well as
convergence near the trough/front should yield at least isolated
storms over much of WY during the day, then from eastern WY into the
western Dakotas through evening. Strong low-level wind fields out of
the south will aid warm air advection and convergence, possibly
supporting locally severe gusts or marginal hail.

..Jewell.. 09/30/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms may produce hail or isolated severe gusts over
parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on
Friday.

Got both: windy and just under an inch of rain at my house, 12 blocks
west of the Mississippi River on the Iowa side. The Quad City
International Airport (MLI) is about 5 miles east on the Illinois side
and they got what looked to be a snowstorm but was hail.

https://www.kwqc.com/2023/09/28/hail-quad-cities-airport-september-looks -like-snow/


¯ ®
¯ BarryMartin3@MyMetronet.NET ®
¯ ®


... All of my bills are outstanding.
Guess I'm doing a great job with them.
--- MultiMail/Win32 v0.47
þ wcECHO 4.2 ÷ ILink: The Safe BBS þ Bettendorf, IA

--- QScan/PCB v1.20a / 01-0462
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Got both: windy and just under an inch of rain at my house, 12 blocks
west of the Mississippi River on the Iowa side. The Quad City
International Airport (MLI) is about 5 miles east on the Illinois side
and they got what looked to be a snowstorm but was hail.

https://www.kwqc.com/2023/09/28/hail-quad-cities-airport-september-looks -like-snow/

Wow! I took a trip out west and just got back a week ago. I got lucking
in that it never really rained much during the day, and I didn't get caught
in any hail (or tornadoes!) while driving across Oklahoma and Texas and
back.

Mike


* SLMR 2.1a * "Excellent...excellent..." - Mr. Burns
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

Hi Mike!

Got both: windy and just under an inch of rain at my house, 12 blocks
west of the Mississippi River on the Iowa side. The Quad City
International Airport (MLI) is about 5 miles east on the Illinois side
and they got what looked to be a snowstorm but was hail. https://www.kwqc.com/2023/09/28/hail-quad-cities-airport-september-looks -like-snow/

Wow! I took a trip out west and just got back a week ago. I got
lucking in that it never really rained much during the day, and I
didn't get caught in any hail (or tornadoes!) while driving
across Oklahoma and Texas and back.

We've been lucky in that no tornadoes have nearer than a few miles away.

Currently having hot weather: highs in upper 80's and three days ago did
break the day's record with 90ø. ...Currently this morning its 58ø; midafternoon hit 88ø or so. Thursday a front is supposed to wander
through and things get more normal wiht highs in the min-70's.



¯ ®
¯ BarryMartin3@MyMetronet.NET ®
¯ ®


... Redneck Pick Up Line: Your eyes are as blue as window cleaner.
--- MultiMail/Win32 v0.47
þ wcECHO 4.2 ÷ ILink: The Safe BBS þ Bettendorf, IA

--- QScan/PCB v1.20a / 01-0462
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Currently having hot weather: highs in upper 80's and three days ago did break the day's record with 90.. ...Currently this morning its 58.; midafternoon hit 88. or so. Thursday a front is supposed to wander
through and things get more normal wiht highs in the min-70's.

Sounds about like us except the front bringing the 70's is not expected
until Friday. Tomorrow it not forecasted to be as warm because they are forecasting rain.

Mike


* SLMR 2.1a * What do you mean, QWK?? It took me over an hour to read!!
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

Hi Mike!

Currently having hot weather: highs in upper 80's and three days ago did break the day's record with 90.. ...Currently this morning its 58.; midafternoon hit 88. or so. Thursday a front is supposed to wander
through and things get more normal with highs in the min-70's.

Sounds about like us except the front bringing the 70's is not
expected until Friday. Tomorrow it not forecasted to be as warm
because they are forecasting rain.

Wednesday's forecast rain barely made an appearance: forecast was for
light rain first part of the morning and a second round of showers in
the late afternoon. Had a few scattered drops in the morning and it did
cloud up some late afternoon. ...Suppose have to give them a few points
for a bit of accuracy! <g>

¯ ®
¯ BarryMartin3@MyMetronet.NET ®
¯ ®


... Redneck Pick Up Line: Your eyes are as blue as window cleaner.
--- MultiMail/Win32 v0.47
þ wcECHO 4.2 ÷ ILink: The Safe BBS þ Bettendorf, IA

--- QScan/PCB v1.20a / 01-0462
* Origin: ILink: CFBBS | cfbbs.no-ip.com | 856-933-7096 (454:1/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 100602
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
hail appear possible Wednesday evening/night across parts of the
central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorms may move
onshore from the Gulf of Mexico along parts of the Florida Gulf
Coast Wednesday night while posing some threat for strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado or two.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper trough will dig and further consolidate on Wednesday as it
advances from the Northwest/Great Basin towards the central Rockies
and adjacent High Plains. Pronounced large-scale ascent preceding
this feature will likely encourage a lee surface low to deepen as it
develops from eastern CO to western/central KS through the period.
Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue advecting
northward across the central Plains through Wednesday night
along/east of a surface dryline. But, a cap and lingering MLCIN
should inhibit convective development across the warm sector through
much of the day.

Even so, robust convection will likely initiate along/north of a
warm front from parts of central/eastern KS/NE into northern MO and western/southern IA, as a southerly low-level jet quickly
strengthens Wednesday evening. Even though low-level moisture is
expected to remain fairly limited, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
should exist, aided by low-level moist advection and steep mid-level
lapse rates. As low/mid-level winds strengthen with the approach of
the upper trough, increasing deep-layer shear should support some
convective organization. Isolated severe hail and perhaps occasional
strong wind gusts may occur with the more robust cores through
Wednesday night.

...Florida Gulf Coast...
There is still some uncertainty regarding the evolution of a surface
low across the western through northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
A weak mid-level perturbation, potentially associated with the
remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lidia, should advance east-
northeastward along the Gulf Coast. Rich low-level moisture and
appreciable surface-based instability will probably remain offshore
the central Gulf Coast (LA/MS/AL), with the 00Z NAM being a notable
outlier in its depiction/strength of the surface low. Better chances
for low to mid 70s surface dewpoints to advance inland appear to be
across parts of FL Wednesday evening/night. Both low-level and
mid-level flow are forecast to strengthen in this time frame across
FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. An isolated threat
for strong/gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two may exist from
parts of the FL Big Bend southward along/near the FL Gulf Coast,
given sufficient boundary-layer instability and strengthening
low-level shear.

..Gleason.. 10/10/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 120600
SWODY2
SPC AC 120558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur
Friday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Some
threat for marginally severe hail and perhaps a tornado or two may
also exist across parts Iowa into northern Missouri and far
west-central Illinois.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
A line/cluster of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the
start of the period Friday morning across parts of the mid MS Valley
in association with a southerly low-level jet and related warm
advection. This activity should tend to remain sub-severe as it
spreads eastward into IL and vicinity through the morning. But, some
chance for strong/gusty winds may exist, especially on the southern
flank of the line in east-central MO into central IL where slightly
greater low-level moisture and weak instability should be present.
In the wake of this morning activity, additional convection appears
possible near and east of a surface low which should be centered
along the IA/MO border by early Friday afternoon. A pronounced upper
trough associated with this surface low is forecast to continue
eastward across the Midwest through Friday evening.

Cold temperatures at mid levels along with modest daytime heating
should aid the development of weak instability along/south of a warm
front that should be located over parts of IA/IL. Given sufficient
deep-layer shear, some of this convection may become organized and
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds, marginally severe hail,
and perhaps a tornado or two. The hail and tornado threat should be
focused along/near the warm front and surface low in IA, northern
MO, and west-central IL. Otherwise, strong to damaging winds should
be the primary severe hazard across a broader portion of the mid MS
Valley into the Midwest, where sufficient boundary-layer instability
can develop to support surface-based thunderstorms. In general, poor
lapse rates and weak forecast instability should keep the overall
severe threat fairly isolated/marginal.

..Gleason.. 10/12/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS02 KWNS 190600
SWODY2
SPC AC 190558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
GA ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible
from southeast Georgia across central/eastern South Carolina into
far southeast North Carolina.

...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Upper pattern is forecast to be characterized by an amplified
western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern early Friday
morning. A strong shortwave trough is expected to progress through
this troughing, moving quickly southeastward from the Lower OH
Valley through the TN Valley and off the Southeast coast by late
Friday evening/early Saturday morning. A cold front is expected to
precede this shortwave, moving eastward across the OH and TN Valley
and Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic.

Modest low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the mid to
upper 50s, is expected ahead of this front. This low-level moisture,
coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures, will likely support
modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms. Veered surface
winds will likely limit low-level convergence along and ahead of the
front. However, strong large-scale ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave trough will spread over the frontal zone,
compensating for the lack of low-level convergence and supporting
thunderstorm development. A narrow convective line will likely
develop along the front, with additional development possible in the
wake of the front along the upper trough axis. The strongest
mid/upper level flow is expected to lag behind the front and upper
trough. However, low to mid-level flow in the vicinity of the front
still appears it will be strong enough to support a few more
organized storms capable of damaging gusts. Greatest severe
potential currently appears to be from southeast GA across
central/eastern SC into far southeast NC, where modest diurnal
heating and steep low-level lapse rates are expected.

Thunderstorms are possible along both the front and upper trough
farther north into the Mid-Atlantic, but buoyancy will be even more
limited than areas farther south, with weaker shear as well.

..Mosier.. 10/19/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
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