ACUS01 KWNS 230601
SWODY1
SPC AC 230600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail
will be possible today in parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, eastern
Kansas, southern Missouri, eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota. A few strong wind gusts could also occur in Arizona.

...Carolinas/Georgia...
An upper-level trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will be located from the
eastern Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas. As surface
temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will initiate in the Blue
Ridge Mountains around midday. Storm coverage will increase as
storms move eastward into the lower elevations this afternoon. RAP
forecast soundings late this afternoon at Spartanburg and Columbia,
South Carolina have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 25
to 30 knot range, 0-3 km lapse rates near 7 C/km and DCAPE around
500 J/kg. This will support a marginal wind-damage threat with the
stronger multicells. A severe threat could develop further east into
the Atlantic coastal areas by early evening.

...Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will build slowly northward across the western
U.S. To the east of the ridge, north-northwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the central Plains. At the surface, an axis
of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across eastern Kansas
and western Missouri, along which moderate instability is expected
by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm near this axis of
instability, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon. Along the axis, the RAP is currently
forecasting MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots and
low to mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will be
conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of hail and isolated wind
damage. Marginally severe cells are expected to move southward
across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri during the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Eastern North Dakota/Northwest Minnesota...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
north-central U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is forecast across eastern North Dakota. As
surface heating takes place, instability will develop along and near
this axis, with isolated convective initiation likely taking place.
The HRRR suggests that one or two cells could develop and move south-southeastward across eastern North Dakota or northwestern
Minnesota during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near
Grand Forks at 21Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg with 0-6km shear near
50 knots. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to be around
8 C/km. This environment will support an isolated potential for
supercells, with hail and a few marginally severe wind gusts
possible.

...Arizona...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the Desert Southwest today.
As surface temperatures warm, instability will likely develop across
much of southern Arizona. Thunderstorms are expected to form along
and south of the Mogollon Rim late this afternoon, and spread
southwestward into southern and central Arizona. The RAP suggests
0-3 km lapse rates will be near 10 C/km, with MLCAPE peaking between
500 and 1000 J/kg. This would support a marginal wind-damage threat
with the more intense cells late this afternoon and early this
evening.

..Broyles.. 07/23/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 311249
SWODY1
SPC AC 311248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...COASTAL SOUTHEAST...LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY TO WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the northern/central Plains, coastal Southeast, lower Missouri Valley to west-central Gulf Coast, and Arizona.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the center of a persistent anticyclone has
shifted eastward slightly, from the Four Corners and southern
Rockies regions to the south-central High Plains. This has occurred
as a series of small shortwaves and accompanying convectively
induced/enhanced vorticity maxima pivot northwestward out of MC,
then northward around the western rim of the circulation. The
northern few of that series will pivot northeastward across the northern/central Rockies and adjoining High Plains through this
period.

A synoptic-scale ridge will continue to extend east-southeastward
from the high across the Arklatex/Mid-South region, temporarily
penetrated by a prominent MCV and accompanying shortwave trough now
over AR. This perturbation is progged to deamplify today as it
moves southward into a regime of weakening, difluent ambient flow,
but still may contribute to convection to its south and southeast
(see below). Meanwhile, a small shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over KY -- is expected to move quickly
southeastward to the southern part of a large-scale trough over the
Carolinas and GA, during the 00-06Z time frame.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a low near GSO with quasistationary
frontal zone southeastward across southern SC and southwestward over
northern portions of GA/AL/MS. The frontal zone was interrupted by
MCS cold pools across AR, MO and NE, but the associated
baroclinicity should become better defined again later today, in a southeast/northwest fashion across those areas, as the outflow
becomes shallower/weaker.

...Northern/central Plains...
Isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon from the eastern ranges/foothills of the Rockies to
the frontal zone, and along residual surface boundaries in between.
Isolated severe hail/gusts are possible.

The environment for this activity will be characterized by adequate
low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the 50s and lower
60s F), steep low-level lapse rates with well-mixed sub cloud
layers, and in he central High Plains, relatively weak shear but
strong heating/mixing. A conditional risk for significant (2+ inch
diameter) hail exists over the northern Plains part of the outlook
area, where favorable vertical shear for supercells again is
expected in and near the frontal zone. Southeast flow near the
surface, veering sharply with height to the northwesterly and
westerly winds aloft, will result in wind profiles characterized by
small 0-1-km SRH but long hodographs, and effective-shear magnitudes
in the 40-50-kt range. However, with generally rising heights aloft
and subtle low-level forcing, placement and coverage is uncertain,
with at least an isolated supercell or two possible almost anywhere
in the corridor.

...Lower Missouri Valley to west-central Gulf Coast...
An outflow boundary preceding the southern MCV is moving southward
through LA, with the bulk of convection elevated over the still-
progressive cold pool behind it. However, as the boundary
encounters diurnally destabilizing, very moist Gulf air through the
afternoon, additional, surface-based convection may form along it
and produce strong to isolated severe gusts. Activity should remain multicellular in character, given the weak ambient shear.

That outflow boundary moved well into eastern central OK and
northeast TX; however, the air mass across the western and later the
remainder of the outlook area may recover with warm/moist advection
from a narrow corridor of relatively maximized moisture across
central OK into central/eastern KS, near the morning boundary.
Though not as high-theta-e as the relatively undisturbed air mass
farther southeast near the Gulf Coast, moisture and diurnal
destabilization ahead of the NE MCV/precip may support additional
strong to locally severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight
over the lower Missouri Valley to Ozarks. A 30-35 kt southwesterly
LLJ overnight, beneath steep lapse rates and northwest flow in
midlevels, also may foster sufficient moisture and effective shear
to support hail potential over northern parts of the outlook area,
as parcels rise isentropically to an LFC, along an elevated segment
of the baroclinic zone.

...Coastal Southeast...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should form along/ahead
of the surface front today over portions of the Carolinas and GA,
becoming scattered to numerous amid an active sea-breeze/outflow-
boundary regime over the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Frontal lift
is expected to be modest, given the presence of light winds with
northerly component ahead of it. Still, even weak frontal lift,
along with diurnal heating, should suffice to initiate convection
over northern parts of the outlook area, with subtle large-scale
support for the environment aloft preceding the approaching
shortwave trough. The entire corridor will be characterized by
pockets of strong diurnal heating amidst rich low-level moisture,
with dewpoints commonly in the upper 60s to mid 70s F, along with
high PW. Weak deep-layer wind profiles and related lack of shear
should limit overall organization, with damaging to isolated severe
gusts the main concern in the most intense multicells.

...AZ...
Isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon into evening
as convection moves over the well-heated/mixed desert boundary
layer. One prominent midlevel perturbation in the aforementioned
chain of them should move away from the area today. Though
large-scale lift will not be as strong as the previous day,
sustained heating should occur behind morning clouds/precip over the southeastern CA/southwestern AZ region. This will support scattered thunderstorms development this afternoon, initially over the higher
ranges in southeastern AZ and parts of the Mogollon Rim. A more
southerly mean-flow component today behind the trough will encourage northwestward cell motion, with perhaps some westward curvature
where outflow pools accrete. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg
(locally higher) and even larger DCAPE will support gust potential.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/31/2023

$$

= = =
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 170542
SWODY1
SPC AC 170540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Lower
Michigan and the Ohio Valley today. A couple of strong storms that
could pose low-end severe risk may also evolve across eastern
Pennsylvania and surrounding areas late.

...Synopsis...
A vigorous upper trough is forecast to sweep east-southeastward
across the Great Lakes/Midwest region today, accompanied by a
surface cold front. This boundary is expected to cross the
Appalachians through the second half of the period, and near the
East Coast late.

Meanwhile, a ridge aloft over the West is forecast to be nudged
eastward by an eastern Pacific low/trough, making gradual eastward
progress toward the California coast through the period.

...Portions of the Great Lakes/Midwest...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing/shifting
southeastward across the Great Lakes region at the start of the
period. Though gusty winds can be expected through midday, storms
should remain sub-severe early.

During the afternoon, as diurnal heating nears its peak, ample
destabilization is expected to support an uptick in storm intensity.
Moderately strong flow accompanying the upper system, spreading
atop the surface frontal zone, will also support local storm
organization. As a result, potential for a couple of strong wind
gusts that may near severe levels is expected.

As storms continue eastward, crossing Ohio and Lake Erie during the
evening, a gradual decrease in storm intensity is expected owing to
nocturnal cooling effects, with risk expected to become minimal into
western Pennsylvania and adjacent portions of West Virginia.

...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic region...
As the surface cold front crosses the central Appalachians during
the evening, lingering/weakening convection ahead of the front may
re-intensify locally, as it encounters the slightly more unstable
air anticipated east of the Appalachian Crest. With increasingly
strong flow aloft spreading across this region through latter stages
of the period, limited/local risk for strong/gusty winds, or a brief
tornado, may evolve with a couple of potentially more vigorous
storms.

..Goss/Lyons.. 08/17/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 181246
SWODY1
SPC AC 181245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND...THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorm gusts are possible over
parts of New England, the Desert Southwest and Montana.

...Synopsis...
A high-amplitude synoptic pattern will remain over the CONUS in
mid/upper levels, anchored by a high over the southern Plains.
Associated ridging will extend northward over the northern Plains
for much of today, shifting eastward toward the upper Mississippi
Valley late in the period. A deep downstream trough -- with
intermittently closed cyclone now near the neck of ON, extends
southward across the central Appalachians. This feature will
progress eastward, so that by 00Z, the 500-mb low is over southern
QC, with trough southward over the Mid-Atlantic then southwestward
over the Carolinas. By 12Z, the low should reach the St, Lawrence
Valley region near Montreal, with trough near an axis near
BTV-JFK-RDU.

Upstream from the ridging aloft, a longstanding cut-off low off the
central CA coast will slow its already modest eastward advance, then
meander erratically offshore, with cyclonic flow extending inland
across parts of southern CA and NV. A strong northern-stream
shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over central/southwestern BC -- is expected to pivot across the northern
Rockies today, then deamplify and eject eastward over SK tonight.

At the surface, the 11Z analysis showed an occluded/cold front
related to the eastern mid/upper trough, extending across eastern
NY, western CT, NJ, eastern VA, east-central NC, and southeastern
GA, becoming quasistationary westward over the Gulf Coastal Plains
to LA, and a warm front over north-central/northeast TX. Another
warm front was drawn from a triple point near central Long Island
Sound, eastward along the coast to just south of ACK. The warm
front is expected to move northward/inland over southeastern New
England through the midday, albeit modulated by intervening
convection, and being overtaken by the occluded/cold front from west
to east. These fronts should exit eastern ME by 12Z tomorrow
morning. The trailing inland segment of this front should reach
southeastern VA, the central Carolinas, and southern GA/AL/MS by
00Z, while moving northward as a warm front across western LA,
northeast TX, and OK. Gradual cold frontogenesis is expected today
over MT, with the boundary becoming well-developed across the
Dakotas into eastern WY by 12Z.

...New England...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over western/southern New
England in a loosely organized, nearly north/south swath ahead of
the cold/occluded front, and astride (but mostly north of) the warm
front. With this activity moving into a field of around 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE in the warm-frontal zone, and 35-45-kt effective-shear
vectors aligned orthogonal to more meridional segment(s), a few
damaging to isolated marginally severe gusts or a brief tornado are
possible in the next couple hours before activity moves offshore.
Especially over central/northern parts of the outlook area, where
deep-layer forcing and frontal lift are stronger, another band of
convection may form along the cold/occluded front behind the morning
activity. This potential second round will have very limited, if
any, chance for downshear surface destabilization, given its
relatively small spacing/quick timing following the first round.
Still, with fast cell motions, damaging gusts approaching severe
levels cannot be ruled out with the most intense embedded cells,
before the convective regime outruns what is left of the modified boundary-layer warm sector.

...MT...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon near and behind the developing cold front, with potential
for a few gusts near severe limits. Convection should develop
around midday to early afternoon in vicinity of the Bitterroots, and
ranges between there and I-15, where diurnal heating and moisture at
those elevations will support deep convective growth. A fetch of monsoonal-origin, low/middle-level moisture will be maintained into
this region, supporting peak/ preconvective MLCAPE near 500 J/kg in
the mountains -- decreasing somewhat downshear. As it moves
northeastward to east-northeastward across southwestern/central MT,
activity will be high-based and somewhat moisture-starved, with a
deep, well-mixed boundary layer containing nearly dry-adiabatic
lapse rates. Rather fast storm motions will augment downdraft
potential, though convection should diminish past central MT as it
moves into a more-stable air mass.

...Desert Southwest...
Ongoing cloud cover and precip over most of northern AZ will delay
appreciable insolation into the afternoon. Still, enough diabatic heating/destabilization of higher terrain should occur to
preferentially minimize MLCINH and support widely scattered to
scattered, mid/late-afternoon thunderstorm development. This will
occur amid increasing low/middle-level moisture amid a deep net
southerly flow component. Recent GPS PW data, observed RAOBs, and
forecast soundings all suggesting 1-1.5-inch PW values across the
region. Activity should move generally northwestward to northward,
with well-mixed subcloud layers beneath 200-800 J/kg MLCAPE
supporting potential for isolated strong/briefly severe gusts.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 08/18/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 211244
SWODY1
SPC AC 211242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Interior West mainly during the afternoon, and parts of the Upper
Midwest and lower/middle Texas Coast overnight.

...Synopsis...
The middle/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will remain dominated
by a large-scale anticyclone, which had a 500-mb high of 604
decameters just north of TOP, on last night's 00Z manual chart
analysis. This high is expected to remain at or above 600
decameters through the remainder of the period, while drifting
erratically around the TOP/STJ/MKC vicinity, before shifting south
and weakening somewhat on day 2. North of the high, ridging should
amplify somewhat over the Dakotas today, making the flow over the
Upper Great Lakes more northwesterly.

Meanwhile, a broad but weak mid/upper cyclone -- initially centered
just offshore from SFO -- is expected to move little before 12Z
tomorrow, but devolve into an open shortwave trough, as another low
digs southeastward just offshore from Vancouver Island. In between
the low and high, a broad channel of fast flow aloft and low/middle-
level moisture will persist today across the Desert Southwest and
Great Basin, becoming southwesterly across the northern Rockies.
Farther southeast, a well-defined low/middle-level trough, with some
potential to develop into a tropical cyclone, will move westward
from the central Gulf, reaching the lower TX Coast near the end of
the period or early day 2. See latest NHC tropical weather outlooks
for more on that system.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from northern ME
across the Lower Great Lakes to northern IN, becoming a
quasistationary to warm front from there over northern IL, southern/
western IA and southern SD, to a low near TOR. This front should
move northward as a warm front over eastern SD, southern MN and
parts of IL/WI, as the low migrates east- northeastward to east-central/northeastern SD by 12Z tomorrow.

...AZ-MT corridor...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to pose a marginal
severe-wind threat this afternoon into evening, within a long plume
from the southern AZ border, up through the eastern Great Basin and
Star Valley/Teton/Yellowstone corridor to parts of southern MT.
Though the remains of TC Hilary are expected to continue ejecting
northward and becoming less distinct today, the enhanced southerly
flow belt farther east will continue to yield seasonally strong
deep-layer southerlies, as noted above. This should enable downward
momentum transfer to the ground, especially in more intense/
persistent cells within a lengthy, broken plume of surface-based
convection developing in the diurnal heating cycle. Heating should
be stronger and more persistent along the eastern rim of the
favorable moist plume, which is approximately represented by this
outlook. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should range from around 300-800
J/kg over the UT-MT part of this corridor, to 1000-1500 J/kg across
AZ.

...Upper Midwest...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
this evening and overnight, moving east-southeastward across the
outlook area while offering isolated, marginal potential for severe
hail. After 00Z, as the upstream boundary layer decouples and a
southwesterly LLJ develops/intensifies, associated isentropic lift
of an increasingly moist air mass to LFC should occur, amidst
elevated frontal forcing northeast of the surface boundary. Time
series of forecast soundings suggest that, above a stable surface-
850-mb layer and away from convection, continual steepening of
low/middle-level lapse rates will occur. This should result mainly
from elevated low-level warm advection, but also, slight cooling in
midlevels. Elevated MUCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range may develop,
collocated with 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes. This can
support organized thunderstorms with hail, though potentially
expansive, messy storm mode may limit local duration/magnitude of
the hail threat.

...Portions of mid/lower TX Coast...
Isolated supercells may reach the immediate coastal areas on ether
side of CRP the last few hours of the period (late overnight/early
morning). Though uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the
Gulf trough into a potential tropical system (per NHC forecasts), a
belt of enhanced low-level gradient flow should strengthen along its
northern rim. This process may expand low-level hodographs enough
to support storm-scale rotation in cells approaching the coast in
the last few hours of the period, as a start to the more extensive/
inland (but for now still marginal) tornado potential discussed in
the day-2 outlook.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 08/21/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221253
SWODY1
SPC AC 221252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Storms with gusty winds and/or a tornado or two are possible across
parts of south Texas today in association with Tropical Storm
Harold. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from
northern Arizona into Utah and southwest Wyoming, and also across
the upper Great Lakes region this morning and again late tonight.

...South/South-Central Texas...
Tropical Storm Harold is expected to continue west-northwestward
toward and across Deep South Texas today. Reference the National
Hurricane Center for the latest details. Early morning WSR-88D VWP
data and 00z-12z observed sounding trends reflect a strengthening of
low-level easterlies in association with Harold, even while the
low-level circulation has not been overly well-defined. A
multi-layer cloud canopy preceding Harold may hinder destabilization
and updraft accelerations somewhat today, but at least some
potential will exist for transient supercells with a brief tornado
risk, particularly this morning through early afternoon, given the
moist environment and moderately enlarged low-level hodographs. Any tornado/convective wind risk should diminish by late afternoon, and
almost certainly by sunset.

...Upper Great Lakes...
Convective potential including some severe risk is possible this
morning, but probably more so late tonight. On the north-northeast
periphery of the prominent Midwest-centered upper ridge, a low-level
jet and related warm/moist advection is contributing to scattered
thunderstorms early this morning along the Wisconsin/Michigan border
vicinity, as well as other parts of northern Michigan. A few
stronger storms may yet occur this morning with some hail potential,
but any such severe risk should remain very marginal/isolated.

A stronger low-level jet tonight is expected to result in a repeat
scenario with overnight-maximized thunderstorm potential, but just a
bit farther east-southeast centered across Upper Michigan and
northern Lower Michigan. Some of the stronger storms could produce
hail in the presence of 1500+ J/kg of elevated buoyancy and
seasonally strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow.

...Great Basin...
A moisture plume and a belt of enhanced low/mid-level flow
will persist across portions of the Great Basin to the west of a
large mid-level anticyclone. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
via diurnal heating and persist into the evening. While deep-layer
shear will be sufficient for storm organization, moist profiles will
render weak mid-level lapse rates and limit the overall
magnitude of destabilization and the severe threat. It seems
plausible given the shear/buoyancy that at least some risk for
marginal transitory supercell structures and organized multicells
will evolve, and pose a localized threat for severe wind gusts and
possibly a brief tornado.

...Interior Northwest...
At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon from eastern Oregon into Idaho and western Montana,
associated with a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the
Pacific Northwest. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support
somewhat organized convection, but it remains uncertain as to
whether instability will be sufficient to support a severe hail/wind
threat. This will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks.

..Guyer/Goss.. 08/22/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH TX...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND MI...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two will remain possible through the rest of the
afternoon across a portion of South Texas. Isolated severe wind
gusts will be the primary threat later this afternoon across parts
of the eastern Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Isolated severe
hail will be possible across parts of Michigan early Wednesday.

...20Z Update...
The 2% tornado probabilities in south TX have been trimmed to more
closely align with an arc of convection to the east/northeast of TC
Harold's center. While low-level shear/SRH will tend to gradually
decrease with time as Harold weakens, transient low-topped
supercells capable of a brief tornado or two will remain possible
through the remainder of the afternoon to the north/northeast of
Harold's track, as it continues to move west-northwestward.

Elsewhere, no changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas. See
the previous discussion below for more information, and also see MCD
2025 for more information regarding the short-term threat from parts
of UT into southwest WY.

..Dean.. 08/22/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023/

...South TX...
TC Harold near the Lower Texas Coastal Plain will move
west-northwest and weaken across South TX into this evening.
Potential for a brief tornado or two should linger to the
west-northwest through north relative to the center circulation.
Low-topped convection along the western extent of surface dew points
at or above 76 F should remain coupled with adequate low-level SRH
for a few more hours inland before the environment conducive to
tornadoes diminishes spatially and in magnitude late this afternoon.

...Eastern Great Basin to the northern Rockies...
Similar to yesterday, a moisture plume coincident with a belt of
enhanced mid-level southerlies will support sporadic strong storms,
focused on central to eastern UT and western WY. A few multicells
and transitory/weak supercell structures should evolve this
afternoon, mainly within a corridor where differential
boundary-layer heating is most pronounced. While deep-layer shear
will be sufficient for storm organization, moist profiles will
render weak mid-level lapse rates, limiting the overall
magnitude of destabilization and the severe wind threat.

...Upper Great Lakes...
A repeat scenario of elevated thunderstorm development is expected
during the early morning Wednesday shifted a bit farther east
relative to this morning across parts of MI. With a stronger
low-level jet overnight and deeper updrafts regenerating within the
zone of isentropic ascent along the fringe of an EML expanding east
from northern MN to western Upper MI, a cluster convective mode
should largely dominate. This will probably marginalize the severe
hail risk, while severe wind gusts appear unlikely given the stable
boundary layer where storms are expected to occur.

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 250543
SWODY1
SPC AC 250542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms associated with strong wind
gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the
central Plains eastward to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today from the
north-central U.S. east-southeastward into the Great Lakes. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located across much of the eastern
U.S., with an axis of maximized low-level moisture extending from
southeast Iowa into the Ohio Valley. Some model forecasts develop a
cluster of strong thunderstorms along and near this axis of
instability. Although low-level lapse rates are forecast to become
steep near this axis during the late afternoon, deep-layer shear
will remain weak. For this reason, any wind-damage potential should
remain marginal.

Further to the east into the southern and central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic, mid-level flow will be divergent and from the
northwest. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the central
Appalachians. Although low-level lapse rates will become steep
across much of the region, deep-layer shear will remain weak. This
suggests that any severe threat will be marginal late this afternoon
and early this evening. A few strong wind gusts will be the primary
hazard.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the south-central U.S.
today as flow remains west-northwesterly across the north-central
and northeastern states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the central plains and mid Missouri Valley. A
narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place
near the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. This
will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. As the airmass destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the
central High Plains, where large-scale ascent will likely be
maximized near and ahead of a shortwave trough. In addition to
moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from eastern
Colorado into northwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear peaking in the 25
to 30 knot range. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km could be enough for a few severe storms. Marginally severe wind
gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

Further east into the lower to mid Missouri Valley, isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible during the late afternoon
and early evening. However, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear
will remain weak. This suggests any severe threat that develops
should be marginal and isolated. Hail and a few strong wind gusts
will be the primary threats.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/25/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 260529
SWODY1
SPC AC 260527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ARKANSAS REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur Saturday from southern
Missouri and Arkansas across the Tennessee Valley and toward the
Carolinas.

...Southern Plains to Carolinas...

Upper anticyclone currently centered over the southern Plains is
forecast to gradually weaken and shift west into the southern
Rockies late in the period. This subtle shift will allow
northwesterly flow to extend across most of the CONUS east of the
Rockies as upper troughing settles into New England.

Several weak disturbances are rotating around the upper ridge,
across the central Rockies, before progressing downstream into the
middle of the country. Clusters of deep convection are noted early
this morning ahead of these features, and subsequent evolution
through the early-day period will contribute to potentially robust
development later in the day as diurnal heating is maximized. One
notable complex of storms is currently propagating across southeast
NE/KS. Remnants of this activity should spread across northern MO
before gradually turning southeast early in the period. Latest model
guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will extend across
the southern Plains into southern MO where surface-3km lapse rates
will easily exceed 9 C/km. As temperatures warm into the 90s renewed thunderstorm development is likely within an otherwise weakly
sheared, northwesterly flow regime. Forecast soundings exhibit
seasonally high PW values with abundant SBCAPE. Current thinking is
gusty winds may accompany the strongest convection. Scattered
convection should easily develop downstream across the TN Valley
into portions of the Carolinas where large-scale conditions should
similarly support gusty winds with the more robust convection.

...Elsewhere...

Cool midlevel temperatures will spread across the northeastern US
later today as a pronounced upper tough shifts into this part of the
continent. Isolated-scattered convection will likely evolve beneath
this feature but forecast soundings are not particularly unstable.
Small hail, and perhaps some gusty winds could be noted with a few
storms but the severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities.

Gusty winds may also accompany weak convection across parts of
interior OR where steep lapse rates are expected. However, this
activity will remain quite sparse and buoyancy should be a bit too
weak to warrant a meaningful risk of 50kt wind gusts.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/26/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 270530
SWODY1
SPC AC 270528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds are possible at times with convection from parts of
Texas to the Carolinas Sunday afternoon and early evening.

...Texas to the Carolinas...

Upper anticyclone is forecast to slowly retrograde across the
southwestern US Sunday. As this occurs, northwesterly flow will
dominant much of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Early this morning,
water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, but well defined short-wave
trough digging southeast across southeast MO/southern IL. This
feature contributed to widespread convection Saturday and will
likely encourage substantial thunderstorm activity immediately
downstream as the boundary layer warms by mid day. Latest diagnostic
data exhibits a seasonally high PW air mass across the Mid South
into the Carolinas where values exceed 2 inches in places. While
mid-level temperatures are mild, leading to weak lapse rates,
scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve ahead of this organized
feature and gusty winds could accompany the more robust short-lived
updrafts.

Farther west, surface front will advance south across TX as surface
pressures rise across the Plains in the wake of the aforementioned
short wave and deepening northwesterly flow aloft. Latest model
guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating ahead of this wind
shift across TX into the lower MS Valley. Temperatures should warm
rapidly through the 90s into the lower 100s. 27/00z soundings ahead
of the front exhibited 40-50F temperature/dew point spreads at both
FWD and SHV with PW values around 1.5 inches. Convective
temperatures should be breached by late afternoon and isolated
high-based convection should develop ahead of the front. This
environment favors locally strong winds with the more robust
updrafts.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 08/27/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 281258
SWODY1
SPC AC 281257

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms capable of strong and gusty winds are possible
across the Southeast today.

...Southeast States...
Convective overturning from persistent storms since yesterday has
modulated the warm sector, but some strong to severe thunderstorms
will again be possible, mainly this afternoon, along and south of a southwest/northeast-oriented effective frontal zone. Such
development will be aided by multiple MCVs that are evident/implied
in water vapor imagery. With Precipitable Water values commonly
near/above 2 inches, diurnally warming temperatures and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support some stronger
updrafts/downdrafts. Strong gusty winds will be the primary severe
concern.

...Florida...
Idalia is expected to continue generally northward and intensify
over the southeast Gulf of Mexico through tonight/early Tuesday.
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details.
While low-level winds/shear will begin to increase across the
Florida Keys late tonight, it currently appears that Idalia will
remain far enough west/southwest to preclude a meaningful risk for
tornadoes through the Day 1 timeframe (ending 12z Tuesday).

...Northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan...
A few stronger low-topped storms could materialize late this
afternoon/early evening with development near a weak surface
wave/wind shift. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak and overall
buoyancy will be limited to around 1000 J/kg, but steep low-level
lapse rates/boundary layer mixing, in the presence of moderately
strong northwesterly flow aloft, could yield some stronger wind
gusts.

...Front Range and central/southern High Plains...
Scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should again
develop/increase through mid/late afternoon and continue through the
evening. This will be aided by a modestly enhanced belt of
northwesterly winds aloft. A few stronger storms will probably
evolve, and possibly even some semi-organized clusters, especially
across southeast Colorado/eastern New Mexico. Scenario currently
appears somewhat limited/uncertain as far as regional severe
probabilities, but this will be reexamined in subsequent outlooks.

..Guyer/Goss.. 08/28/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011618
SWODY1
SPC AC 011616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 01 2023

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AZ
AND SOUTHEASTERN CA INTO SOUTHEAST ID...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible today into this
evening, from southern Arizona and southeastern California to
southern Idaho.

...AZ/Southeastern CA into Eastern Great Basin...
Morning satellite and radar imagery shows showers and isolated
thunderstorms from southern NV into western UT, within a band of
clouds arcing from western AZ through eastern NV/western UT and into
WY. This band and associated showers are expected to gradually shift eastward/northeastward throughout the day. Additional thunderstorm
development is anticipated later this afternoon to the west of this
band, where the airmass is expected to destabilize amid daytime
heating and ample low/mid-level moisture. Ascent for this
thunderstorm development will be provide by broad low-level
convergence between the upper low drifting southwestward towards
northern CA and the persistent upper ridging over the
central/southern Plains.

Moderate mid-level flow will exist between these two features,
supporting enough vertical shear for some briefly organized storm
structures, and any stronger/more persistent updrafts could produce
isolated hail. Cloud bases are not expected to be high by western
CONUS standards, but steep low-level lapse rates could still support
strong downbursts in areas where clouds clear and some heating is
realized.

...Elsewhere...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the
Southeast, where ample low-level moisture and strong heating will
destabilize the airmass in the vicinity of an easterly wave moving
across the region. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization
and severity, with an outflow-dominant, multicell mode anticipated.
Even so, a damaging gust or two is possible amid strong water
loading and forward-propagating storm structures.

Ongoing cluster of showers and thunderstorms across SD may persist
for the next hour or two, before dissipating as it the low-level jet
weakens and the cluster continues northeastward.

A few elevated thunderstorms are also possible early tomorrow
morning across the Upper Midwest, forced by a strong low-level jet
and related warm-air advection (and perhaps weak ascent attendant to
a convectively augmented shortwave trough).

..Mosier/Weinman.. 09/01/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 130045
SWODY1
SPC AC 130044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHWESTERN US...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic States, portions of the Florida Peninsula,
and southern Arizona to southwest New Mexico.

...01z Update...

Boundary-layer cooling will soon contribute to weakening low-level
lapse rates, and buoyancy, across most of the CONUS currently
exemplified by thunder/low severe probabilities. Several pockets of thunderstorm clusters currently persist, especially across southeast GA/northern FL Peninsula, Mid-Atlantic, and more isolated over the
southwestern States.

Given the expected stabilization over the next few hours, severe
probabilities have been lowered across the southern
Mid-Atlantic/southern Appalachians. Approaching upper
trough/low-level warm advection will focus across the northern Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva region later tonight. Although lapse rates
will remain weak, increasing flow suggests some risk for a few
organized updrafts.

Ongoing clusters from southeast GA to the northern FL Peninsula
should gradually wane this evening as they propagate slowly
east-southeast.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue across AZ into NM overnight, as
two weak short-wave troughs migrate across this region. This will
occur as the southern branch of the westerlies has established
itself from southern CA into TX. 00z sounding from TUS exhibits
seasonally steep lapse rates with PW values around 1.60". Modest
deep-layer shear continues to support some updraft organization.

..Darrow.. 09/13/2023

$$

---
* SLMR 2.1a * Here is a loud announcement... Silence in the studio!!
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 140039
SWODY1
SPC AC 140037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN US...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds and marginally severe hail remain possible this evening
across parts of the southwestern US.

...01z Update...

Southern-stream short-wave trough is progressing across the southern
High Plains early this evening. Despite this notable feature,
low-level convergence remains quite weak across the southern Plains
into NM where isolated-scattered convection persists. Primary
surface boundary has advanced into coastal TX, arcing into deep
south TX/northeast Mexico. 00z soundings from MAF and DRT exhibit
negligible CINH with SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Weaker buoyancy exists
into central NM (ABQ), though sufficiently sheared/buoyant for a few
robust updrafts. Very little hail has been reported with convection
this evening, but lapse rates are seasonally steep and favorable for
gusty winds and at least marginally severe hail. Boundary-layer
cooling should limit updraft intensity in the next several hours.

..Darrow.. 09/14/2023

$$
---
* SLMR 2.1a * L&N -- THE Old Reliable
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 210052
SWODY1
SPC AC 210051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat will be possible this evening in parts of
the Intermountain West and in a small part of the Ark-La-Tex.

...Intermountain West...
Latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over northeastern
Oregon, with southwesterly flow located over much of the northern
Rockies and northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
located in western Idaho, with a weakly unstable airmass ahead of
the front. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of the
stronger instability from northeast Nevada northeastward into
southeastern Idaho. RAP forecast soundings in southeast Idaho this
evening have weak instability, moderate deep-layer shear and low to
mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. The steep lapse rates will
aid downdraft acceleration, and a few marginally severe gusts could
occur ahead of the faster moving cells this evening.

...Ark-La-Tex...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an mid-level ridge in the southern
High Plains, with west-northwesterly flow over much of the southern
Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At low-levels, a moist airmass is in place
over Oklahoma, Arkansas and east Texas. As a 30 to 40 knot low-level
jet strengthens this evening into tonight, isolated thunderstorms
are expected to develop over parts of the Ark-La-Tex. RAP forecast
soundings in far southeast Oklahoma at 06Z have MUCAPE near 1200
J/kg, effective shear around 40 knots, and 850-500 mb lapse rates
near 7 C/km. This could be enough for a marginal hail threat with
the strongest of cells.

..Broyles.. 09/21/2023

$$

= = =
---
* SLMR 2.1a * ....we came in?
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 251248
SWODY1
SPC AC 251247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
PENINSULAR FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas,
southwestern Louisiana and peninsular Florida today.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the central region of a major synoptic-scale
cyclone will remain offshore from the Pacific Northwest and Canadian
Pacific Coast through the period, though height falls will shift
progressively farther inland as the low moves northeastward.
Downstream, a blocky pattern is evident over north-central/
northeastern North America, with an anchoring high expected to move
slowly southeastward from the Hudson Bay region.

A much smaller cyclone than the one in the northeast Pacific is
evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Upper Mississippi
Valley to the eastern Dakotas and southern MB. The cyclone -- cut
off from the prevailing northern stream -- is centered over
northwestern MN. That center is forecast to move southeastward to
northeastern IA through 12Z tomorrow. To its south, a series of
weak shortwave troughs and convectively induced/enhanced vorticity
maxima will slowly traverse the broadly cyclonic flow field covering
much of the Gulf Coast States. A deep-layer low in the easterlies
-- initially over the Yucatan region with troughing northeastward
over the eastern Gulf -- is expected to move slowly westward through
the period.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a slow-moving cold front from
central AR across north-central to southwest TX. As this front
continues to move slowly southward, its baroclinicity will merge
with that of an outflow boundary across southeast through south-
central TX. The combined boundary should decelerate and become
nearly stationary over southeast through south-central/southwest TX
by mid/late afternoon. Elsewhere, a weak, residual, quasistationary
front was drawn across central FL, and is forecast to drift
northward today while weakening further.

...Southwest TX to southwestern LA...
A small plume of convection, that has persisted for several hours
south of the front in a low-level convergence zone from the SJT area
to west of ERV, still may contain cells capable of marginally severe
hail for another couple hours before it weakens. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along
and south of the front, over areas of orographic heating/lift in
western parts, and along outflow/differential-heating boundaries
produced by ongoing/morning activity in the Edwards Plateau region
and southeast TX/southwestern LA.

Environmental trends will include:
1. Area-wide diurnal destabilization with time today that will
weaken MLCINH to negligible amounts, albeit at differing rates
depending on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture content;
2. Increasing low-level moisture eastward across the area,
rendering deep/well-mixed subcloud layers over the Big Bend, lower
Pecos and southern Edwards Plateau regions, but upper 60s to 70s
surface dewpoints and PW 1.75-2 inches from the DRT area eastward;
3. A modest version of the subtropical jet in upper levels, running
parallel to the outlook area, with slightly strengthening
upper/anvil-level flow and cloud-layer shear to the west;
4. Veering with height, but of modest wind speeds, in low levels.

These factors should contribute to the potential for a few organized multicells/multicell clusters with damaging to marginally severe
downdrafts possible, and few supercells of at least transient nature
over western areas capable of large hail and strong-severe gusts.
Given considerable mesobeta-scale dependency of convective
initiation/growth away from the higher terrain, coverage still is
too uncertain to highlight greater (15%) unconditional severe
probabilities within the lengthy marginal area.

...Central/southern FL...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across much of central/southern peninsular FL, mainly along and
south of the front. Damaging to isolated severe gusts are possible,
along with isolated, marginally severe hail in the most intense
cores.

To the east of the eastern Gulf troughing, southerly to
southeasterly low-level flow and moisture transport will continue
over much of the Florida Peninsula. This will foster widespread 70s
F surface dewpoints and PW of 1.75-2.25-inches. In such a moist
airmass, strong diurnal heating will erode already meager MLCINH,
beneath a deep troposphere, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates
enough to yield 1500-2500 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE. Sea-
breeze boundaries, the front, outflow boundaries from initial
activity, and subsequent boundary intersections will focus
convection. Though deep-layer winds generally will be less than 30
kt with weak speed shear, veering with height will contribute to
20-30 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting multicellular
organization. Convection should diminish in coverage and strength
after dark as a combination of nocturnal cooling and spreading/
deepening outflow air stabilize the overland boundary layer.

..Edwards/Kerr.. 09/25/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 291217
SWODY1
SPC AC 291215

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHT TONIGHT
FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and strong-severe gusts will be possible from
eastern South Dakota into Minnesota this morning through tonight.

...Eastern SD into MN through tonight...
No substantial changes to the prior outlook. In association with an
ejecting midlevel shortwave trough, elevated convection will
continue to spread northeastward this morning from northeast SD
toward northern MN. The convection appears to be rooted close to
700 mb, along the northwest edge of the steeper midlevel lapse
rates, where MUCAPE is near 1000 J/kg. There is sufficient
cloud-layer shear/hodograph length for a small cluster capable of
producing large hail near 1 inch diameter this morning. Strong
outflow winds will also be possible, though the potential for
damaging/severe winds at the surface will be limited by a relatively
deep stable layer below the 700 mb level.

In the wake of the morning convection with the midlevel trough,
gradual midlevel height rises are expected atop a slow-moving
baroclinic zone from southwest into east central MN.
Afternoon/evening convection will rely on shallow ascent along the
front in conjunction with surface heating/deep mixing to remove
convective inhibition. If storms form later this afternoon along
the front, the environment will conditionally favor a supercell or
two capable of producing large hail and strong outflow gusts.
Otherwise, low-level warm advection will increase this evening into
early tonight on the nose of a strengthening low-level jet, which
will support additional elevated storm development with the
potential for isolated large hail.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/29/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 301245
SWODY1
SPC AC 301244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NM INTO CO...AND FROM NORTHWEST AZ INTO UT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong-severe gusts may occur this afternoon/evening across
portions of the New Mexico/Colorado, and from northwest Arizona into
western and central UT.

...NM/CO this afternoon/evening...
Low-midlevel moisture will continue to increase gradually from NM
into CO through tonight, to the east of the developing midlevel low
over NV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE to the
500-1000 J/kg range across central/eastern NM by later this
afternoon with minimal convective inhibition, with weaker buoyancy
to the north into CO. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
this afternoon and continue through late evening from NM into
southern/central CO. Though the stronger mid-upper flow will remain
farther west, inverted-V profiles will favor a few strong-severe
outflow gusts with multicell clusters.

...UT/northwest AZ area this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel trough now over CA will evolve into a closed low over NV
later today into tonight. On its eastern periphery, a baroclinic
zone will spread eastward from central NV this morning to western UT
this evening. Ascent along the front will help focus the
development of a band of convection by this evening from northwest
AZ into western UT, and the convection will spread northeastward
into tonight. Buoyancy will be relatively weak (MUCAPE near 500
J/kg), but strong midlevel flow and lingering steep low-level lapse
rates will favor the potential for downward momentum transport and a
few strong-severe gusts.

...MN/WI today...
Elevated convection is ongoing this morning over northern WI in a
zone of warm advection on the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. The
convection is expected to weaken through the morning as warm
advection likewise diminishes. The potential for diurnal,
surface-based convection is limited along the slow-moving front
across MN through this afternoon, given background height rises and
no appreciable forcing for ascent in an environment with weak
deep-layer vertical shear. Overall, the threat for large hail
appears too low to warrant maintaining any outlook areas.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/30/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 011629
SWODY1
SPC AC 011627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible from about 2 to 10 PM MDT in eastern New Mexico to far west
Texas.

...Eastern NM and far west TX...
A plume of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s has
enveloped much of eastern NM into west TX and will support a more
buoyant air mass later this afternoon relative to yesterday. But the
presence of low-level stratus this morning has slowed boundary-layer
heating and will temper MLCAPE values to an extent. Still, a
confined corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should develop where
cloud breaks are evident across southeast NM into the TX
Trans-Pecos. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most probable
over the higher terrain in this region and should regenerate from
mid-afternoon through at least early evening. While deep-layer
vertical shear should be modest across much of the area, a narrow
zone of effective bulk shear approaching 30 kts should develop in a
portion of east-central/southeast NM where low-level
south-southeasterlies persist beneath moderate mid-level
southwesterlies. This should yield potential for a few slow-moving
supercells, although there is uncertainty in just how warm the
boundary layer will actually get where the better shear environment
exists. Even so, isolated large hail and locally strong gusts should
be the main threats, with localized severe gusts tending to focus
farther south into the Trans-Pecos where surface heating is greater.

..Grams/Bentley.. 10/01/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 130542
SWODY1
SPC AC 130540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible this afternoon over parts of
Iowa, northern Missouri, and northwest Illinois.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will fill as it moves from NE into IA through 00Z, and
toward southern Lake MI by 12Z Saturday. Moderate cyclonic flow
aloft will remain south of the upper low, providing shear and
cooling aloft over much of the lower MO Valley and toward the OH
Valley.

At the surface, low pressure will move east across IA during the
day, and into IL and IN overnight. Mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will
be common south of the low, and east of a cold front surging across
MO and across the Ozarks late in the day. Dewpoints may increase
further into the lower 60s F after 00Z as a warm front lifts north
across IL and IN. While moderate to strong shear will exist with
this upper trough and near the surface low, the severe threat will
be mitigated greatly by lack of appreciable instability.

Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints will remain over much of the FL
Peninsula with a temporary ridge aloft, but drying will occur over
northern parts of the state in closer proximity to surface high
pressure.

...IA...MO...IL...
Elevated thunderstorms will be possible early in the day within a
warm conveyor stretching from the Ozarks into WI, with MUCAPE of a
few hundred J/kg. Behind this activity, a warm sector will develop
from MO into IA ahead of the approaching surface low. Surface
heating combined with cooling aloft will likely result in up to 500
J/kg MLCAPE, centered over IA.

The greatest severe threat appears to be from 20-02Z near the
surface low and arcing southeastward along the cold front, from IA
into northern MO, where low-level convergence will be maximized.
Cool temperatures aloft and expected cellular storm mode may favor
hail to 1.00" diameter, and low-level SRH near the low and warm
front could briefly support a supercell or two with brief tornado
threat before winds veer and the warm-sector quality diminishes.
Otherwise, additional elevated thunderstorms are forecast to spreads
east overnight as far east as OH, supported by weak destabilization.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 131241
SWODY1
SPC AC 131239

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
IOWA TO NORTHERN/WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible this afternoon from central
Iowa to northern/western Illinois and eastern Missouri.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a Rex pattern covering much of
north-central/central North America will transition back toward an
omega configuration, as:
1. An anticyclone persists over central Canada, and
2. A pronounced cyclone -- initially centered over NE -- travels
eastward roughly along I-80 to the southern Lake Michigan shore
region around 12Z tomorrow. By 00Z today, the 500-mb low should be
near DSM.

The corresponding surface low was analyzed at 11Z over northeastern
NE near OFK, with cold front to near an STJ-CNU-SPS-FST line, and
warm front across south-central/southeastern IA to southern IL. The
low should shift across southern/central IA through the day, nearly
in step with its nearby mid/upper-level counterpart, as the warm
front moves slowly northeastward over eastern IA and western IL. By
00Z, the triple point should be over west-central/central IL, ahead
of the low, with cold front across southeastern MO, southern AR, and
east through south-central TX. A separate, quasistationary frontal
zone across north-central FL should move little through most of the
afternoon, then slowly southeastward in response to cyclogenesis
near coastal SC. That development should be related to the advance
of the mid/upper cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes, and
shortwaves traversing the basal cyclonic flow. While isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along and south of the FL front atop
a richly moist boundary layer, severe potential there should be
muted by lack of stronger shear, lapse rates and lift.

...IA/IL/MO region...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop from midday through the
afternoon in one or two arcs east through southeast of the surface
low, near the occluded/cold fronts. Activity should form initially
over western parts of the outlook area, then spread north through
east over it. A marginal tornado threat exists, with any sustained supercell(s) being the main concern for that, along with isolated
damaging gusts and low-end severe hail.

With abundant clouds and precip areas ongoing over the region and
only slowly shifting away through much of the morning, diurnal
destabilization will be slow to occur, and much of the buoyancy may
arise from a combination of weak warm advection/heating in low
levels and the eastern fringes of cooling aloft preceding the
progressive mid/upper low. Surface dewpoints commonly in the mid
50s to low 60s F (locally higher) will support a narrow corridor of
MLCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range immediately preceding the frontal
arc, amidst 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes and effective SRH
generally in the 150-250 J/kg range (maximized just east of the
low). Instability, lift and low-level shear each should diminish
southward over central/eastern portions of MO/IL. Convective
organization should diminish with eastward extent and time this
evening as well, due mainly to weakening instability.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 10/13/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 201207
SWODY1
SPC AC 201205

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2023

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to localized severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail
will be possible with scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon
to early evening.

...Southeast...
Ongoing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are already
farther south and east than the bulk of 00Z to overnight CAM
guidance. This warm conveyor-driven activity should persist east and
likely intensify midday to early afternoon as it approaches the
South Atlantic coastal plain with abundant insolation expected
downstream. Limited boundary-layer moisture will be the primary
factor mitigating a more robust severe weather threat today as
MLCAPE remains below 1000 J/kg. Even so, an intense mid-level jet
impinging on the basal portion of a broad trough will aid in
strengthening deep-layer speed shear across the southern part of the
severe threat area, centered on southeast GA. This may yield a few
transient rotating updrafts focused near the Savannah River. The
relatively early timing of the leading zone of ascent suggests that
surface gusts will probably peak in the 45-60 mph range, along with
small to marginally severe hail, before shifting offshore.

A secondary lobe of ascent tied to the mid-level vorticity max
approaching the southern Appalachians in conjunction with cooling
mid-level temperatures should compensate for more muted surface
heating and support a few transient updrafts with mid-level rotation
spreading southeast across SC and southern NC. While this scenario
will be somewhat contingent on adequate cloud breaks/insolation in
the wake of the lead convection, a second round of small to
marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph will be
possible before this convection weakens after sunset.

..Grams/Goss.. 10/20/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)