ACUS02 KWNS 310529
SWODY2
SPC AC 310528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging gusts and hail are possible on Tuesday across parts of the
central High Plains, and over eastern North Dakota into northern
Minnesota.

...ND/MN...

An upper ridge will be oriented over the northern Plains on Tuesday. Northwesterly mid/upper level flow around 35-50 kt will be oriented
over the eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A compact midlevel
shortwave trough is forecast to shift east near the international
border through evening. At the surface, a weak front will develop
east across ND into northern MN. Southerly low-level flow ahead of
the front will maintain 60s F surface dewpoints and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Effective shear greater than 30 kt will
support organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and modest
low-level winds suggest strong outflow is possible. Marginal hail
may also occur with the strongest cells. Stronger large-scale ascent
will remain focused to the north of the region, potentially limiting
storm coverage and precluding higher severe probabilities at this
time.

...Central High Plains...

Convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate
through the upper ridge oriented over the High Plains Tuesday afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will remain rather weak, but
east/southerly low-level flow will spread low 60s F surface
dewpoints westward toward the I-25 corridor in CO/WY. This will
foster relatively narrow corridor of moderate destabilization by
afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near higher terrain
and spread eastward through the evening. Effective shear near 25 kt
may support stronger updrafts long enough for storms to produce
small hail near and just east of the I-25 corridor. Otherwise,
strong outflow winds also will be possible.

...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley...

Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the area during the
morning. It is unclear how convective potential later in the
day/evening may be impacted by this activity. Forecast guidance
varies, but at this time, it appears that outflow and suppressed
heating from morning convection may limit thunderstorm activity
later in the day/evening, tempering severe potential on Tuesday.
However, if morning convection is less than forecast, some severe
potential could develop within persistent northwest-flow regime.

..Leitman.. 07/31/2023

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