Mesoscale Discussion 1819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023
Areas affected...Far Southeast Missouri...Far Western
Kentucky...Western and Middle Tennessee...Northern Alabama...Far
Northeast Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031216Z - 031445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The wind-damage threat could increase over the next few
hours over western Tennessee, far northeast Mississippi and northern
Alabama. Convective trends will be monitored. If intensification
occurs, then weather watch issuance may become necessary.
DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Memphis
shows an MCS located from western Tennessee northward into southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois. This cluster of strong convection is
located along the eastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability.
The instability, combined with large-scale ascent associated with a
shortwave trough over the mid Mississippi Valley (evident on
water-vapor imagery), will provide support for continued convective
development over the next few hours. The MCS is forecast to track
southeastward across west-central Tennessee into far northeast
Mississippi and northern Alabama. As surface temperatures warm and
instability increases, the severe threat associated with the MCS
could strengthen. Wind damage would be possible, especially along
the leading edge of the faster moving bowing line segments.